The Candidate: What It Takes to Win - and Hold - the White House [Hardcover]

Samuel L. Popkin (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: May 4, 2012

There are two winners in every presidential election campaign: The inevitable winner when it begins--such as Rudy Giuliani or Hillary Clinton in 2008--and the inevitable victor after it ends. In The Candidate, Samuel Popkin explains the difference between them.

While plenty of political insiders have written about specific campaigns, only Popkin--drawing on a lifetime of presidential campaign experience and extensive research--analyzes what it takes to win the next campaign. The road to the White House is littered with geniuses of campaigns past. Why doesn't practice make perfect? Why is experience such a poor teacher? Why are the same mistakes replayed again and again?

Based on detailed analyses of the winners--and losers--of the last 60 years of presidential campaigns, Popkin explains how challengers get to the White House, how incumbents stay there for a second term, and how successors hold power for their party. He looks in particular at three campaigns--George H.W. Bush's muddled campaign for reelection in 1992, Al Gore's flawed campaign for the presidency in 2000, and Hillary Clinton's mismanaged effort to win the nomination in 2008--and uncovers the lessons that Ronald Reagan can teach future candidates about teamwork. Throughout, Popkin illuminates the intricacies of presidential campaigns--the small details and the big picture, the surprising mistakes and the predictable miscues--in a riveting account of what goes on inside a campaign and what makes one succeed while another fails.

With the 2012 election looming right on the horizon, The Candidate is an essential read for everyone who is watching as President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney square off against each other. As Popkin shows, a vision for the future and the audacity to run are only the first steps in a candidate's run for office. To truly survive the most grueling show on earth, presidential hopefuls have to understand the critical factors that Popkin reveals in The Candidate.

Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

Amazon.com: Five Pivotal Moments from Incumbent Campaigns Additional Content from the Author

Samuel L. Popkin, Author

While a challenger's presidential campaign can quickly adjust and adapt to shifting winds like a speedboat, an incumbent's campaign behaves more like a battleship, maneuvering slowly and making very large waves. Instead of a core inner circle calling the shots from a "war room," a president's re-election team must coordinate with White House staffers and the President's cabinet--all of whom have agendas difficult to change, control or coordinate.

The pivotal moments in incumbents' campaigns are policy moves that take months to plan before they're unveiled--and just as long to see their effects. Challengers offer talk about what they believe in, but the five classic moves outlined here show presidents making a credible commitment by paying a price.

Congress Overrides Truman's Veto of Taft-Hartley
Harry Truman's prospects for re-election in 1948 looked bleak. It didn’t help that unions viewed him as the "number one strike breaker" after he interceded in the railroad and mining strikes crippling the country. But when the Taft-Hartley Act came to his desk for his signature in 1947, Truman saw the opportunity to resurrect his candidacy. By vetoing Taft-Hartley--which outlawed secondary strikes, mass picketing and closed shops--Truman positioned himself as the last, best hope of the unions. The Republican-controlled Congress, which overrode the veto with support from nearly half of all Democrats, became an easy, visible enemy for Truman... and the unions. Without the financial support from unions in 1948, he would not have captured the normally Republican farm vote and countered Thomas E. Dewey's urban appeal.

Nixon Visits China
To this day, when Democratic strategists think about dramatic moves a president can make, they ask each other to finish the sentence "If only Nixon could visit China, only a Democrat could..." Nixon's surprising visit to China in February, 1972, was a key part of his re-election strategy. Senator George McGovern's pledge to end the Vietnam War and bring U.S. troops home immediately made Nixon look like an unadulterated hawk by contrast. The trip to China--a historic attempt to restore the relations with the Communist nation--made the rest of Nixon's foreign policy claims credible. It paved the way for Nixon to campaign on the goal of "Peace with Honor," centered on a commitment to a more principled end to the war.

Carter Fails to Rescue Iranian Hostages
Carter is an important reminder that an incumbent's bold moves can backfire badly. With the Iran Hostage Crisis entering its fifth month--and nothing but failed negotiations to show for his efforts--Carter decided to try to rescue the 55 Americans held in Tehran's American Embassy. The rescue attempt, dubbed "Operation Eagle Claw," was aborted when two defective helicopters forced the mission to turn back. Eight U.S. servicemen died, and Carter's administration suffered a very public failure. "If we had it to do all over again," Carter’s media advisor Gerald Rafshoon said after the election, "we would take the 30 million dollars we spent in the campaign and get three more helicopters for the Iran rescue mission."

George H. W. Bush Takes Lee Iacocca to Japan
Although Bush's January, 1992, state visit to Japan is now remembered for the vomit the jet-lagged president deposited in the prime minister's lap, the trip was already a debacle before that incident. Trying to prove that his foreign policy focus could pivot from security to jobs, Bush brought Big Three auto executives along to persuade Japan to import more American cars. The failing CEOs' salaries became the talk of the country; Lee Iacocca, Chrysler's CEO, was paid more than all the Japanese auto companies' CEOs together. The Wall Street Journal was so disgusted, they urged Bush to "Give Iacocca to Japan." And the day after the president's stomach problems, Johnny Carson joked, "If you had to look at Lee Iacocca while eating raw fish, you'd barf too."

Clinton Outmaneuvers Newt Gingrich
In December 1995, the Republican controlled house and senate sent Bill Clinton a budget that would let Medicare, in Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich's words, "wither on the vine." With the same pen LBJ used to sign Medicare into law, Bill Clinton vetoed their budget, forcing a government shutdown. After their brinkmanship backfired, the freshman congressman, George Stephanopoulos wrote, developed a "kamikaze spirit" and "became Newt's Frankenstein monster--and my best friends."

Infuriated by losing the budget battle, Republicans then sent Clinton two welfare reform bills so stringent that he had no choice but to veto them. Though former Senator Bob Dole, now the Republican presidential candidate, begged Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott not to send him something he could sign, Senate Republicans were now worried about their reelection prospects. A compromise bill went through and Clinton signed it in August, 1996. By restoring Clinton's centrist credentials, the Republican senate had sunk the Dole campaign. Said Dole strategist Tony Fabrizio, "they aimed the torpedoes at the hull and then started throwing water at it."

--Samuel L. Popkin

Review

"Sam Popkin is a leading political scientist and someone who has worked inside presidential campaigns over many years. He brings the discipline of an academic and the eye of a practitioner to the question of what makes some candidates successful and other not." --Dan Balz, The Washington Post

"No one I know has more closely studied the link between the minds of voters and the machinery of Presidential campaigns than Sam Popkin. He's a scholar who has worked in War Rooms. A strategist who knows his history. In The Candidate, Professor Popkin teaches us what he's learned--the surprising secrets that separate winning campaigns from the ones that crash and burn." --George Stephanopoulos, Anchor and Chief Political Correspondent, ABC News

"The Candidate offers a deep dive into Presidential politics. Popkin tells us why so many 'inevitable' candidates fail, why incumbency can be as much a burden as a blessing, and why the presidency is often won or lost behind the scenes. Informed, opinionated, and smart. Must reading in 2012 and beyond." --Richard Thaler, co-author of Nudge

"Samuel L. Popkin has written a ground-breaking book, making use of his skills as a political scientist, his extensive experience in campaigns, and his prodigious archival research to produce a gold-plated analysis of presidential elections. His book, The Candidate: What it Takes to Win--and Hold--the White House, is not just a crucial document for campaign strategists, political reporters, and academics; it is a great read for members of the general public who will find it enlightening, refreshing, and a new source for understanding the world of high-powered politics." --Thomas Edsall, author of The Age of Austerity

"Popkin is that rare academic who can write a fast-moving, punchy book that rescues political science from spreadsheets and algorithms and thereby makes it interesting and captivating. The Candidate is argumentative, opinionated, provocative and a great read for any political junkie or activist."--Karl Rove, former Senior Advisor and Deputy Chief of Staff to President George W. Bush

"[A] valuable aspect of The Candidate is [Popkin's] insistence that what matters above all else is the team, and especially the immediate supervisor of that team, the chief of staff...convincing." --Michael Tomasky, The New York Review of Books

"The Candidate is an insider romp through American politics -- and a guide to the presidential elections of 2012." -- The Globe and Mail

"All political junkies should have this book next to the TV remote so they can watch Popkin's ideas play out in real time during this campaign season and the general election. Too bad for the GOP candidates that they can't read this book until May. Highly recommended." --Library Journal

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 360 pages
• Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA (May 4, 2012)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0199922071
• ISBN-13: 978-0199922079
• Product Dimensions: 6.5 x 1.1 x 9.2 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.3 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (34 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #71,363 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • #35 in Books > Politics & Social Sciences > Politics & Government > Elections & Political Process > Elections
  • #88 in Books > Politics & Social Sciences > Politics & Government > United States > Executive Branch

More About the Author

Samuel L. Popkin is Professor of Political Science at the University of California, San Diego. He has also been a consulting analyst in presidential campaigns, serving as consultant to the Clinton campaign on polling and strategy, to the CBS News election units from 1983 to 1990 on survey design and analysis, and more recently to the Gore campaign. He has also served as consultant to political parties in Canada and Europe and to the Departments of State and Defense. His most recent book is The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns; earlier he co-authored Issues and Strategies: The Computer Simulation of Presidential Campaigns; and he co-edited Chief of Staff: Twenty-Five Years of Managing the Presidency.(Photo Credit: Rebecca Webb)

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

6 of 6 people found the following review helpful

4.0 out of 5 stars Everything is obvious... once you know the answer... great history but poor predictive power August 22, 2012

By Joel Avrunin TOP 500 REVIEWERVINE™ VOICE

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Vine™ Review (What's this?)

In an election year, everyone wants to have insight into which candidate is likely to succeed so they can be the one to predict the election. Invariably, every year pundits of all political stripes make predictions before the election, and when proven wrong afterwards, proclaim that the results were "obvious". Popkin's book serves this role from his insightful position as an adviser to Carter, McGovern, Clinton, and Gore. Despite the fact he is obviously a Democrat, the book is not a political analysis of one party versus another but rather a discussion on the nature of the political process itself.

In my mind, Popkin does not really tell you what it takes to win the White House, but more what it takes to lose the White House. To borrow a phrase from Anna Karenina, successful campaigns are all alike; every failed campaign fails in its own way. Through examining the failed campaigns of Carter, George HW Bush, Gore, and Hillary Clinton, he finds that each had their own failings and reason that they were not successful campaigners. Popkin leads us to his conclusion that should be eminently obvious - we tend to vote for the person who is the best campaigner, not the person we think will govern the best. Hillary was obviously infinitely more qualified than a freshman senator without any accomplishments of his own, but she was a worse campaigner as Popkin explains in intricate detail.

While the book is a good history, it fails in the title to explain exactly what it takes to "win and hold" the White House. It's an election year, yet I cannot look at either the Obama or Romney campaigns and proclaim I know how it will end based on Popkin's insights. In fact, Popkin reminds me of the book Everything Is Obvious: *Once You Know the Answer. He analyzes why Gore lost, but had 300 people in Florida voted differently, he'd be analyzing why Bush lost. It seems hard to make sweeping generalizations on one man's failure based on a few hundred votes in a single state.

If Romney wins, Popkin's next book can discuss how it was obvious Obama would lose. If Obama wins, it will be equally obvious that Romney could never win. Either way, there will be facts that can be spun after the fact to explain why the outcome was so clear.

The history in this book was fascinating, but the conclusions are a little broadly stated. It seems the most important thing is to have the candidate stay out of day-to-day operations and leave it to professionals. Indeed, Popkin details how Obama basically acted out the campaign that Axelrod and Plouffe put together. Hillary tried to run her own campaign and failed miserably. But these professionals can't have their own aspirations of grandeur, or he says they will sink the candidate like Sununu (and although he doesn't mention it, Schmidt in 2008). I recommend you read the book to gain insight into history you won't find elsewhere, but don't expect to come out of it knowing exactly how a person goes about winning a presidential campaign.

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Terrific Read! July 27, 2012

By MasterAP

Format:Hardcover

Another political winner that is objective and not partisan.

I can't get enough of these books that explain politics without pandering, name-calling or are extremely biased.

Samuel Popkin takes us through the definitions of U.S. President candidates and how the winners win while the supposed winner loses. You won't get the party-line or the typical, "here's how that scumbag tricked us" lines you expect in political books.

The first part is abstract in just the terms while sporadically bringing in real-life examples of past candidates. He explains the different types of campaigns a candidate can run. There are only so many to choose: Challenger, Incumbant. Experience/Stability, Outsider/Reformer It's the latter part of the book that is truly excellent.

Popkin explores President George H.W. Bush's messed up re-election candidacy, Hillary Clinton's micromanaged "inevitable" campaign, and Al Gore's complete meltdown.

You'll read how George W. Bush was able to beat the successor during a time of peace and wealth; how Rudy Giuliani was the winner in all the polls until he actually started running and how a number of other candidates just could not connect, or hold on to their mojo. You'll even get to see how President Obama used the new media and bottom-up mentality to throw off Hillary Clinton's dreamteam.

In the end, Popkin points to Ronald Reagan in order to teach future candidates how to handle miscues, mistakes and misfires.

A fantastic read during this Presidential cycle.

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Great for political junkies July 16, 2012

By Jonathan Pedrone VINE™ VOICE

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Vine™ Review (What's this?)

I picked up this book because I am a political junkie, and interested in the process of becoming a President in our country. Throughout history some of the best candidates have sputtered and failed, while other lesser candidates have come along and won the White House to the surprise of many of the pundits. The book overviews some of the most memorable recent campaigns for the White House and how they either succeeded or failed to achieve the White House.

I found the book easy to read, and engaging. It was sort of like pulling back the curtain on the races that we watched from the outside on TV. The behin the scenes views of what was really going on in the campaigns was engaging and interesting and provided both context and reasons for the success or failures of different candidates.

While hindsight is 20/20 the author points out some characteristics of sucessful campaigns, and some of the pitfalls that candidates can fall into. I wondered as I read through the book if the candidates themselves were aware of these pitfalls, and could fall into the same traps that others had without realizing it.

This is a great read for anyone who is interested in the political process, or anyone who wants to go behind the scenes of some of the most recent elections to show what caused the downfall of some of the can't miss candidates in recent years.