The Coming Anarchy: Shattering the Dreams of the Post Cold War [Paperback]

Robert D. Kaplan (Author)

Book Description

Release date: February 13, 2001

From the bestselling author of Balkan Ghosts and The Ends of the Earth comes a fascinating new book on the imminent global chaos that is as brilliant as it is necessary, as original as it is controversial.

The end of the Cold War has not ushered in the global peace and prosperity that many had anticipated. Environmental degradation is causing the rampant spread of famine and disease, and a rising number of nations are being torn by violent wars of fierce tribalism and trenchant regionalism. Our newest democracies, such as Russia and Venezuela, are bloody maelstroms of violence and crime, while America is beset with an alarmingly high number of apathetic citizens content to concern themselves with matters of entertainment and convenience. Bold, erudite, and profoundly important, The Coming Anarchy is a compelling must-read by one of today's most penetrating writers and provocative minds.

"Analytically daring.... Informed by a rock-solid, unwavering realism and an utter absence of sentimentality.... Kaplan is a knowledgeable and forceful polemicist who mixes the attributes of journalist and visionary." —The New York Times

"Ambitiously eclectic.... [Kaplan] is one of America's most engaging writers on contemporary international affairs." —The New York Times Book Review

Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

Robert Kaplan warns of a "bifurcated world divided between societies like ours, producing goods and services that the rest of the world wants, and those mired in various forms of chaos." This is a familiar theme for previous Kaplan readers (Balkan Ghosts, The Ends of the Earth). For those unacquainted with Kaplan, however, The Coming Anarchy is a fine introduction to one of the most important voices on the future of society and international relations. Kaplan mixes the intense reportage of a travel writer with the sharp wisdom of a foreign-policy expert to deliver what he calls "an unrelenting record of uncomfortable truths, of the kind that many of us implicitly acknowledge but will not publicly accept." The Coming Anarchy is also a disturbing book: Kaplan's vision of the future is a bleak one, full of ethnic conflict as the world falls away from a cold war that at least provided a kind of stability in even the shakiest of countries. That's gone now, of course, and Kaplan's descriptions of life and politics in Sierra Leone, Russia, India, and elsewhere are keenly troubling. Much of the book--but not all of it--has already seen print, mainly on the pages of The Atlantic Monthly and The Wall Street Journal. It is brief in length but not in importance. --John J. Miller --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

From Library Journal

Lest anyone still maintain the illusion that the end of the Cold War ushered in an era of "good times," these nine provocative, thoughtful, and very speculative essays (most of which previously appeared in periodicals) should set the record straight. Here Kaplan (The End of the Earth; Balkan Ghosts), a contributing editor of the Atlantic Monthly, describes his Clockwork Orange-like vision of the world's future--in which societies are permeated with violence, crime remains unabated, and official corruption and anarchy run rampant. Using West Africa and Turkey as his primary examples, he argues that "environmental scarcity," ethnic strife, overcrowded living areas, and the changing nature of war will irreparably tear the social fabrics of societies all over the world--in places as far apart as India, Canada, South America, Yugoslavia, Africa, the Far East, the Middle East, and even the United States. Kaplan further suggests that democracy will not protect us from this apocalypse; indeed, he notes, it could even help cause it. His experiences as a journalist in the world's hot spots corroborate his pessimistic conclusions, and the clarity of his vision serves as a wake-up call. For most public and academic libraries.
-Jack Forman, Mesa Coll. Lib., San Diego
Copyright 2000 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

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Product Details

• Paperback: 224 pages
• Publisher: Vintage; Reprint edition (February 13, 2001)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 037570759X
• ISBN-13: 978-0375707599
• Product Dimensions: 5.2 x 0.8 x 8 inches
• Shipping Weight: 8.8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (81 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #185,119 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Most Helpful Customer Reviews

54 of 57 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Chilling realism May 13, 2000

By Bill Perkins

Format:Hardcover

"Anarchy" aptly describes the world envisioned by Kaplan in this collection of essays. He builds on his vast experience working with the U.S. military and third world countries to construct the ultimate pragmatical, yet in his mind bone-chillingly true, prediction for the future. His vision consists of a bifurcated world divided between the first-world economic superpowers and everyone else; a world in which the gap between the two will be ever more exacerbated as time goes on. In such a world, he envisions the devolution of the nation-state(which he believes to be largely a fantastical Western construct when applied to most of the world) into what can be described as nothing else but barely controlled chaos or anarchy. He predicts dramatic changes in the world power system in the next century, brought on by dramatic negative political and socioeconomic changes in the least developed but fastest-growing areas of the earth. Another perspective I found interesting came from the final essay in the book, in which he criticized the idealist foreign-policy views of many American intellectuals, an argument I have found in my experience to be dead-on.

From a critical perspective, I believe that Kaplan takes too negative a take on the world's prospects for the next century for two reasons. First, he draws from his experiences with underdeveloped nations and extrapolates to make generalizations about the world's economic superpowers, an oversimplification that I found astounding given his depth of knowledge on the subject. Second, he largely excludes economics from his direct analysis, an omission which, given the phenomenal grobalization trend that we are witnessing now(see The Lexus and the Olive Tree by Thomas Friedman), is inexcusable from a truly pragmatical analysis of the world.

In defense of Kaplan's stance, he draws largely from his experience as a military consultant for his experiences, so an understandably narrow view based solely on physical force and largely ignoring non-physical forces of coercion(i.e. economics) emerges. Also, I doubt if he truly feels the extremes that he sets forth in his book; in order to lay out his true feelings, he had to polarize to the extreme realist/negative viewpoint.

I highly advise this book to anyone who harbors an idealist perspective on the future of the world; although a bit extreme, it will rightfully shatter many of your naive preconceptions of the world. Beyond my humble viewpoint, Thomas Friedman cited Kaplan's work as one of four major perspectives of the post-Cold war era, along with Fukuyama, Kennedy, and Huntington. All in all, a seminal and extremely important work that I recommend to anyone interested in obtaining a more truthful perspective on the world than that advanced by the mass media

47 of 50 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Don't give up after the first essay...read on!! October 2, 2002

By Tony Kay Schutz

Format:Paperback

"Kaplan is no more than an alarmist." That is what I thought somewhere in the middle of the first essay from which the book gains its title, The Coming Anarchy. Then I began the second of the nine essays which make up the book, "Was Democracy just a Moment?" "O.K., he's an alarmist who believes democracy will destroy the world," my thinking continued. But by about page 69 I began to find insightful principles like, "States have never been formed by elections. Geography, settlement patterns, the rise of literate bourgeoisie, and, tragically, ethnic cleansing have formed states." And, "Social stability results from the establishment of a middle class" (70). These were the kinds of foundational thinking I could agree with. "Maybe I shouldn't dismiss this guy altogether," I speculated. At that point I never imagined that I would find what I did, at the end of the book.
The fact that Robert Kaplan recognizes the import of powers of observation is one of the things that impressed me as I continued to read Kaplan's essays. The first several essays of the book paint graphic pictures of a not-so-idealistic post Cold War world. Kaplan undauntingly portrays the chaos in most Third World countries. He draws parallels that cannot be dismissed. Whether you agree or not, you are forced to consider. While many people look away, and journalists won't consider writing, Kaplan keeps watching and composing.
Linked with his deductions resulting from observation, Kaplan combines a commanding respect for understanding the significance of human nature. In the fifth essay in the book, "And Now for the News..." he establishes the value of history as related in The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, by Edward Gibbons. He says, "The Decline and Fall instructs that human nature never changes, and that mankind's predilection for faction, augmented by environmental and cultural differences, is what determines history" (113). Throughout all of his essays, I began to see the basis for his theses are amazingly simple, at least insofar as understanding human nature is simple. When he concludes this essay with, "When Gibbon describes everyday people in poor nations as exhibiting a `carelessness of futurity,' he exposes one tragic effect of underdevelopment in a way that many more-careful and polite tomes of today do not" (117), I realized that this guy is not only observant and somewhat discerning, he is brave, it's just not politically correct to insult people who live in the Third World.
The third, fourth, and sixth essays in the book establish without a doubt, Kaplan's identity as a realist. This fact coincides with his attention to observation and study of human nature. In the last sentence of the third essay, "Idealism won't Stop Mass Murder," he says, "But many Americans think that it may be possible to afford some protection to all those other people. If so, I fear that we may have to be very ruthless indeed" (104). "Uh oh," I thought, "he's crossing the line again, give me balance, Robert." In the next essay, "Special Intelligence," he does just that. He shifts his emphasis from observation and estimation, to more concrete illustrations. He explains that, "The assumption at Fort Bragg is that despite war-crimes tribunals and Geneva Conventions, future adversaries will play by the rules even less often than present ones do" (109). I found that, in a post 9/11 world, I have to agree with that.
By the sixth essay in the book, "Proportionalism: A Realistic Approach to Foreign Policy," Kaplan had earned my respect, although still somewhat begrudgingly. He aptly characterizes liberals and conservatives, and generously describes government, "Caught among the various mind-sets are well-meaning Washington bureaucrats who are trying to craft workable policies on global humanitarian issues" (120). In this essay Kaplan actually presents a balanced and thoughtful proposition about this subject. Given my initial impression of the book from reading that first essay, I had not thought to discover any semblance of balance or generosity. I still don't necessarily agree with him, but as a reader I am moved to consider and that is an accomplishment for an author, especially one whose approach is forceful.
I remember that I thought at this point in my reading, "He'll never conclude this book with realizing we will end up with world peace." And because I believe that we will eventually achieve world peace (albeit temporarily), I judged Kaplan as observant, discerning, generous-at-times, and unexpectedly balanced, but ultimately wide of the mark. I read the next two essays. They continued to be challenging, insightful, and proportionate. When I turned the page to begin the last essay, I still was not expecting to find the topic, "The Dangers of Peace" (169).
Kaplan's last essay is a superlative ending for this book. It is a prophecy that can't quite be believed, yet he supports his thesis with significant illustrations and facts. As he concludes this essay he makes this outrageous suggestion regarding the United States and its relationship with the United Nations, "The U.S. should pay its dues and, in essence, without declaring it, take over the U.N. in order to make it a transparent multiplier of American and Western power" (181). By this point in the book I have become used to these kinds of statements by the author, so I just take a deep breath and read on, "That, of course, may not lead to peace, since others might resent it and fight as a result; but such an action would fill the world organization's insipid ideological vacuum with at least someone's values-indeed ours" (181). The danger of a world with an ideological vacuum...it's quite ironic that it takes a realist to understand that.
Concluding this review in the context of a course on the United States and the Post Cold War, Kaplan's book, The Coming Anarchy; Shattering the Dreams of the Post Cold War, is entirely relevant. It is demanding and shrewd; and invites the student to think critically about the present and the future. While the author evokes passion and emotionalism by his literary technique, the student must exercise mental restraint and evaluate objectively the analysis and prediction the author offers.

40 of 45 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars A Warning On The State of the Third World. April 13, 2000

By Peter J. Cassimatis, Professor emeritus of economics

Format:Hardcover

Although I do not agree with the pessimism of Neo-Malthusians and end-of-history advocates, I found Robert Kaplan's new book an eloquent warning against apathy as we enter a new century. Kaplan correctly points out that the map of the world is deceiving. Most frontiers do not include or define nations based on a single ethnicity and/or religion, i.e., the essential cohesive force for a stable society is missing. Based on his travels around the Third World, the author observed that rapidly expanding populations, urbanization without adequate infrastructures and environmental disasters are causing the collapse of marginal states and their forcible integration into Yugoslavia-type states. Soaring populations and shrinking raw materials make democracy problematic and stability uncertain ,espcially, in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Influenced by such writers as Huntington, Home-Dixon, van Gleveld, Rahe and others cited in the text - unfortunately there is no bibliography - Kaplan believes that homogeneous states such as Germany and Japan may not face the certain fragmentation of multiethnic societies, perhaps even the United States. Although the writing is uneven - the last third of the book consists of essays published previously - Kaplan does develop some interesting themes: Democratically elected regimes do not survive if the economy is not developed enough to prevent the return of authoritarian governments. Enlightened despotism is not preferable to democracy. The preferred alternative may be the middle for those countries which are trying to develop their economies without falling into anarchy. Like Kaplan's Balkan Ghosts, this book is a warning and perhaps a prohesy.