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The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014-2019 Hardcover – January 7, 2014

282 customer reviews

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Editorial Reviews

Review

“I have worked in the highest level of U.S. politics and see a disaster in the making as the government employs endless stimulus plans and bailouts that destroy the very free market capitalistic system that has made it the richest major country in the world. Harry Dent adds the reality of aging societies and slowing demographic trends to show why such reckless debt-driven policies are certain to fail.”
David Stockman, author of The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America


“Whether you know it or not, you are careening toward a demographic cliff. With this riveting book, esteemed economic forecaster and visionary Harry Dent has produced a must read for the next decade and beyond. It will keep you flying high while the rest of the world tumbles blindly through the turbulence.”

George Gilder, author of Knowledge and PowerWealth and Poverty, Microcosm, and Telecosm


“Harry Dent has drawn on his unique approach to demographic forecasting as a speaker at my events for twenty years. Over the last three decades, he has accurately predicted the 1990s surging markets, Japan’s twenty-year economic tailspin, and the U.S. market peak in 2007. His ability to help people understand, in simple terms, some of the most important forces that have helped shape our economy is invaluable. Read this book and find out what impact Harry believes demographics will have on our economy in the coming years.”
Anthony Robbins, entrepreneur, author, and peak performance strategist


“In Endgame I outlined the global debt that makes a financial crisis inevitable. Harry Dent goes further and shows how a succession of demographic slowdowns following Japan and the United States will make the endless government stimulus plans doomed to fail. He even shows that real estate will not be the same again with rising sellers versus buyers. This is a must-read book for prospering in the debt crisis ahead.”

John Mauldin, author of Code Red, chairman of Mauldin Economics, and editor of Thoughts from the Frontline and Outside the Box

About the Author

HARRY S. DENT, JR. is the author of the New York Times bestseller The Great Depression Ahead (2009) among many other economic and financial books. He is the president of the H.S. Dent Foundation and founder of Dent Research, which publishes Survive and Prosper, Boom and Bust and The HS Dent Forecast. He has an MBA from Harvard, has consulted to Fortune 100 companies and many new ventures, and lectures widely. He lives in Tampa, Florida.

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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 368 pages
  • Publisher: Portfolio (January 7, 2014)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 1591847273
  • ISBN-13: 978-1591847274
  • Product Dimensions: 6.2 x 1.2 x 9.2 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (282 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #38,274 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

A Harvard MBA, Fortune 100 consultant, new venture investor, noted speaker and bestselling author, Harry S. Dent, Jr. is the founder and senior editor at Dent Research, where he dedicates himself to identifying and studying demographic, technological, and geopolitical trends. He has a free daily newsletter at www.harrydent.com called "Economy & Markets."
With his track record of accurately predicting Japan's collapse in 1989, the dot-com bubble-bust in 2000 and the housing bust in 2006 to 2007 (among many other things), he has appeared on Good Morning America and PBS, and is a regular guest on CNBC and Fox Business. He's been featured in Barron's, Investor's Business Daily, Business Week, The Wall Street Journal, and American Demographics. And he's written numerous books, including The Great Boom Ahead(1992), The Great Depression Ahead(2008), The Great Crash Ahead(2011) and The Demographic Cliff(2014). www.harrydent.com

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

212 of 224 people found the following review helpful By Nevada on January 12, 2014
Format: Kindle Edition
This is a very significant book and I would recommend that everyone read it. Unfortunately, in my opinion, the author digresses significantly and often into topics for which he demonstrates very little expertise. I was frustrated and found myself skimming about 40 percent of this book as trash. The other 60 percent was very important and worth it at twice the price. Definitely a recommend, but with the qualification that you be patient and be willing to skip through portions of the book.

Mr. Dent does a fabulous job as a demographer and the work he shows is exceptional. He presents one of the strongest cases I've ever seen for future economic cycles...I think everyone should be armed with this evidence and decide how best to use it. I was so pleased with such a solid fundamental approach to the world's economic situation.

Now the bad:
Covers topics like sunspots' effect on the US stock market; paints inflation only in the context of dollar value vs. other currencies; delves into politics and oversimplifies (and misrepresents) the positions of various parties; discusses environmental disaster and mischaracterizes the science; He gets way too far into the weeds. He should have stuck with the primary thesis of his book.

I'm sorry if that sounds harsh, but this guy comes off as a know-it-all and quite narcissistic. I would fire the editor and publisher for letting this book go so far astray.

With the negatives said, the core of this book is fantastic and I expect the science behind his demographics is solid. I am quite glad to recommend this book and I am very happy that I purchased it. This book provides so much insight into the economic cycles and where we are headed from here for the next 20 years or so.
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34 of 34 people found the following review helpful By Andy Marx on February 15, 2014
Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
I finally found someone who wrote a book on the economic topic that I think is largely ignored: the coming retirement of millions of baby-boomers and how that is going to effect the economic landscape for the next 30 years. Harry Dent is spot on in recognizing how this shift is likely to cause extremely large changes in spending habits for millions of individuals, and, more importantly, what that means to folks like me that are much younger (37).

Mr. Dent does a marvelous job developing his thesis with various graphs supporting the notion that as people age their spending habits change. But that's about as far as he goes. As others have noted, he quickly loses focus (and credibility in my opinion) when he jumps into all sorts of other "wave" theories. This starts in chapter 2 and continues for the rest of the book. I was totally captured by the first chapter (thesis) and by chapter 2 or 3 I just started skimming as he runs terribly off topic. Mr. Dent is rather like a conspiracy theorist: if you believe in one conspiracy you believe in them all. Dent believes in one wave (the demographic wave) but then goes on in nausiating fashion to show a bunch of other waves, which in my opinion are used by fanatics who are trying to sell a product rather than real science.

Dent's got an excellent theory and the data to support what will happen to spending levels in different areas over the next 30 years: why the heck is he talking about solar activity? He could have written a detailed book, almost an industry-by-chapter- about exactly what his data shows.

But he got lazy. And moreover, he loses credibility because every few pages he says something akin to: "if you go to my website I'll send you a newsletter and you can follow along as we go.
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147 of 163 people found the following review helpful By Herb Hunter on January 8, 2014
Format: Hardcover
I've always enjoyed Harry Dent but reminded myself to take him and other prognosticators in the realm of Armageddonomics with a grain of salt. This book is another detailed list predictions, albeit better researched than his other works and in the end, probably more accurate.

The author forecasts for the global economy with a focus on implications for America, particularly as we scrape through the current fiscal mess with 77 million baby boomers on the verge of entering what they thought would be their golden years. Dent does not spend time opining as to the root causes as to why demographic pressures have come to bear, be they social, political, religious or other normative variations, but he makes a detailed analysis of the alarming ice berg approaching world economies. Simply put, the birth rates of the most developed economies are being outstripped by their multiplying elderly population, and this will make for a smaller work force, less productivity and catastrophic economic impact that no population is prepared to accept. Everything from anticipated amounts that young consumers spend to the age at which they expect to retire is about to get a major readjustment, like it or not. He even claims that in Japan, adult diapers are outselling infant diapers. In another, he claims research shows that 35% of young Japanese men are no longer interested in sex out of paranoia of getting their wives/girlfriends pregnant and raising a child they cannot afford. I guess condoms are super-expensive in Japan nowadays. Um, ok; we get it, Harry, but unless that statistic can be backed up somehow it's really unnecessary and reeks of hyperbole.
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