In The Doomsday Myth, Charles Maurice and Charles Smithson show that although doom merchants have been predicting imminent collapse from resource shortages as long as civilization has existed, no nation has ever fallen because of the depletion of a resource. They also show that government intervention has not been the solution to these crises. Instead, freely functioning markets with individuals acting in their own self-interest have eliminated shortages, and averted doomsday. The free market theme is the same one used by Adam Smith in The Wealth of Nations in 1776, but the need to restate it for new generations is urgent. The authors concluded that a resource-based doomsday will arrive only if we suspend the functioning of free markets.
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The free market theme is the same one used by Adam Smith in The Wealth of Nations in 1776, but the need to restate it for new generations is urgent. The authors concluded that a resource-based doomsday will arrive only if we suspend the functioning of free markets.
About the Author
Charles Smithson is an economist and known expert in financial risk management. He has held positions in academe and in government before moving to the private sector as managing director in the global risk management sector of Chase Manhattan Bank, North America. He is currently president of Rutter Associates, a credit risk management firm in New York. He is the author of five books, including Managing Financial Risk and Credit Portfolio Management.
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Basically the premise of the book--that where there is a shortage, the price of the good will rise and cause either conservation, a search for substitutes or a search for more of what is in shortage, is basic economic theory. But how this is illustrated is absolutely fascinating--the authors look at a series of historical 'crisis', from oil (modern age) to wood for fuel (16th Century England, and the subsitution of coal, which helped make England a powerhouse, literally) to a shortage of wood timbre for ship building in ancient Greece (forced a new design for ships), to, in a specutacular climax--the shortage of flint in prehistoric man's world! (and how it was overcome, namely, either recycling or searching for more flint).
The authors score points blasting the "doomsday environmentalists" (e.g., Rome Club environmentalists) who are always preaching only limiting demand without realising that supply can be increased where there is incentive, and for being Cassandras. These doomsday types typically focus on market failures such as Tragedy of the Commons and try to generalize from that unique failure, but I digress.
My only criticism is that the book is so seemlessly written and logical you almost suspect the facts are made up or glossed over--especially the speculative last chapter on prehistoric man, where the evidence surely is sketchy. But don't let this dissuade you from reading this short and sweet book.
BTW, another economics book for non-economists that has a paradoxical message that I highly recommend is the new book by William Easterly, "The Elusive Quest for Growth".
In the oil patch, geologists have a saying, "We will never run out of oil. It will just get too expensive to burn." We will have to wait till then before we get serious about conserving or finding substitutes.
This book does an excellent job going through previous crisis in times past and showing how mankind, under capitalism, has found a way out. For any looking to debate with new 'doomsdayers' on anything from global warming to shortage of goods this provides an excellent introduction to give you the framework you need to respond.
Remember there are always scarce resources, time is one of them.
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