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The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives [Kindle Edition]

Leonard Mlodinow
4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (276 customer reviews)

Print List Price: $15.95
Kindle Price: $8.74
You Save: $7.21 (45%)
Sold by: Random House LLC

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Book Description

With the born storyteller's command of narrative and imaginative approach, Leonard Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how our lives are profoundly informed by chance and randomness and how everything from wine ratings and corporate success to school grades and political polls are less reliable than we believe.

By showing us the true nature of chance and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives us the tools we need to make more informed decisions. From the classroom to the courtroom and from financial markets to supermarkets, Mlodinow's intriguing and illuminating look at how randomness, chance, and probability affect our daily lives will intrigue, awe, and inspire.

 


From the Trade Paperback edition.


Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

Amazon Guest Review: Stephen Hawking
Published in 1988, Stephen Hawking’s A Brief History of Time became perhaps one of the unlikeliest bestsellers in history: a not-so-dumbed-down exploration of physics and the universe that occupied the London Sunday Times bestseller list for 237 weeks. Later successes include 1995’s A Briefer History of Time, The Universe in a Nutshell, and God Created the Integers: The Mathematical Breakthroughs that Changed History. Stephen Hawking is Lucasian Professor of Mathematics at the University of Cambridge.

In The Drunkard’s Walk Leonard Mlodinow provides readers with a wonderfully readable guide to how the mathematical laws of randomness affect our lives. With insight he shows how the hallmarks of chance are apparent in the course of events all around us. The understanding of randomness has brought about profound changes in the way we view our surroundings, and our universe. I am pleased that Leonard has skillfully explained this important branch of mathematics. --Stephen Hawking


From Publishers Weekly

A drunkard's walk is a type of random statistical distribution with important applications in scientific studies ranging from biology to astronomy. Mlodinow, a visiting lecturer at Caltech and coauthor with Stephen Hawking of A Briefer History of Time, leads readers on a walk through the hills and valleys of randomness and how it directs our lives more than we realize. Mlodinow introduces important historical figures such as Bernoulli, Laplace and Pascal, emphasizing their ideas rather than their tumultuous private lives. Mlodinow defines such tricky concepts as regression to the mean and the law of large numbers, which should help readers as they navigate the daily deluge of election polls and new studies on how to live to 100. The author also carefully avoids veering off into the terra incognita of chaos theory aside from a brief mention of the famous butterfly effect, although he might have spent a little more time on the equally famous n-body problem that led to chaos theory. Books on randomness and statistics line library shelves, but Mlodinow will help readers sort out Mark Twain's damn lies from meaningful statistics and the choices we face every day. (May 13)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Product Details

  • File Size: 520 KB
  • Print Length: 272 pages
  • Publisher: Vintage (May 13, 2008)
  • Sold by: Random House LLC
  • Language: English
  • ASIN: B001NXK1XO
  • Text-to-Speech: Not enabled
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  • Lending: Not Enabled
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #25,957 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews
248 of 258 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent Book on Randomness in Everyday Life May 16, 2008
Format:Hardcover
I just love books like this - especially when they're as well-written as this one. The author, a physicist, proceeds to show the reader how randomness plays a much greater role in everyday life than one might think. As he discusses the basics of probability and statistics, he provides wonderful illustrations from fields as wide-ranging as sports, medicine, psychology, the stock market, etc., etc. He does an excellent job in driving home the fact that the true probability of events is not intuitive. Perhaps because of this anti-intuitiveness, I had to read a few paragraphs more than once to allow the point being made to sink in. One enigma that is particularly well explained is the Monty Hall (Let's Make a Deal) problem. The writing style is clear, accessible, very friendly, quite authoritative, engaging and often very witty. This book can be enjoyed by absolutely everyone, but I suspect that math and science buffs will savor it the most. By the way, the math-phobic need not fear: the book does not contain a single mathematical formula.
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505 of 551 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars Competent but unoriginal May 17, 2008
Format:Hardcover|Verified Purchase
Promising prologue "... when chance is involved, people's thought processes are often seriously flawed .... [this book] is about the principles that govern chance, the development of those ideas, and the way they play out in business, medicine, economics, sports, ..." but a disappointing book. The book consists of a range of topics already well covered in a dozen previous popular science style books: history of probability (Cardano, Pascal, Bernoulli, Laplace, de Moivre) and of demographic and economic data; statistical logic (Bayes rule and false positives/negatives; Galton and the regression fallacy, normal curve and measurement error, mistaking random variation as being caused); overstating predictability in business affairs (past success doesn't ensure future success) and perennials such as Monty Hall, the gambler's fallacy, and hot hands.

These topics are presented in a way that's easy to read -- historical stories, anecdotes and experiments, with almost no mathematics. So it's a perfectly acceptable read if you haven't seen any of this material before before, but it doesn't bring any novel content or viewpoint to the table. Other books are equally informative and well written but have more interesting individual focus and panache:
Dicing with Death: Chance, Risk and Health shows hows to add analysis to anecdote,
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk has more intellectual discipline (staying focused on the current topic),
... Read more ›
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245 of 271 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Chances are good you'll like this one May 18, 2008
Format:Hardcover|Verified Purchase
This smart book will make you think. Academic yet easy to read, it explores how random events shape the world and how human intuition fights that fact. I found this point fascinating. It never occurred to me that our brains naturally want to see patterns and order, and life doesn't necessarily work like that.

It's comforting to think of an orderly world, with everything in its place, running according to plan. It dovetails into our yearning for meaning and control, and the need to feel that we are important. The idea of randomness is frightening. If the world is shaped without conscious decision, it's a pretty chilly prospect.

Author Leonard Mlodinow examines the importance of randomness in diverse situations, including Las Vegas roulette tables, "Let's Make a Deal," the career of Bruce Willis, and the Warsaw ghetto after Hitler invaded Poland. The author does a good job explaining how chance and luck are vital factors in how things turn out.

The cover has a nice touch. On the dust jacket, several die-cut holes reveal letters on the hardback underneath. The letters are the R and D in "Drunkard's," the A in "Walk," the N in "Randomness," the O in "Our" and the M in Mlodinow. These letters are connected by a thin red line. They spell out "RANDOM."

Here's the chapter list:

1. Peering through the Eyepiece of Randomness
2. The Laws of Truths and Half-Truths
3. Finding Your Way Through a Space of Possibilities
4. Tracking the Pathways to Success
5. The Dueling Laws of Large and Small Numbers
6. False Positives and Positive Fallacies
7. Measurement and the Law of Errors
8. The Order in Chaos
9. Illusions of Patterns and Patterns of Illusion
10. The Drunkard's Walk
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87 of 97 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars BEST NON-FICTION BOOK THIS YEAR May 26, 2008
By Sanford
Format:Hardcover
I do not know how to explain this book because it is so good. Its lessons are useful in business strategy, in evaluating the Iraq war, in deciding whether the Feds should lower interest rates and in planning one's own career. It is simply put the Best Book of the Year.

The author covers the growth and evolution of theories of probability, what he calls theories of randomness, and ties it together with anecdotes one cannot find in any other book on the subject. Yes, it is just as readable as Peter Bernstein's classic Against the Gods and far more thoughtful (and less arogant) than Fooled by Randomness by Nasim Taleb. The author is the co-author with Stephen Hawking of the Briefer History of Time and unless he has a ghost writer, is easily the best writer of non-fiction of the serious kind. His prose is perfect, his choice of anecdotes appropriate, his domain expertise unmatched.

The book ends unexpectedly but poignantly, about his aunt's awful fate at a Nazi death camp. Honestly, I respect the author's prerogative but I wish it was in an epilogue. It is too serious a subject and takes the mind to another dimension, to be read at the last minute, that too in a book with so much to think about anyway.

THIS SHOULD BE AN ADDITIONAL READING IN EVERY COURSE IN BUSINESS SCHOOL, SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT, SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS, MILITARY INSTITUTION, BESIDES IN EVERY COLLEGE AND COLLEGE CAREER'S COUNSELING. AND IN EVERY HOSPITAL WAITING ROOM. AND IN PLACES OF WORSHIP TOO. NO PERSON CAN BE IN THE MODERN WORLD WITHOUT CONSIDERING THE ARGUMENTS IN THIS BOOK
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Most Recent Customer Reviews
5.0 out of 5 stars Complex scientific concepts made simple. No mathematical formulas, ...
Complex scientific concepts made simple. No mathematical formulas, all explained in words. A dive in the magical world of randomness.
Published 10 days ago by Arledio Martins
3.0 out of 5 stars Three Stars
Hard for me to get through, but learned to question how random life is.
Published 11 days ago by lois vuono
4.0 out of 5 stars Drunkards walk-------
Haven't had a chance to read it yet----for the future reading , has been put on the bookself for now.
Published 19 days ago by Gregory Robinson
5.0 out of 5 stars No fluke
Telling a well-read and highly numerate friend that I was going to read Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise," he told me to get this book instead. Read more
Published 1 month ago by Senkihazireader
5.0 out of 5 stars Good and interesting book
A very interesting and well written book--enjoyable to read. Perhaps I will purchase another book by the same author in the future.
Published 1 month ago by Charles S. Wilson
5.0 out of 5 stars Good Reading in Objectivity
We'll written book. Helps to show and clarify concepts of population of statistics. In today's society, everything is a focus on the "one", where that one is a VERY rare... Read more
Published 2 months ago by Cory
5.0 out of 5 stars Two Thumbs Up
Excellent discussion of how statistics affects our daily lives, history and science. It makes the topic accessible if it is not your area of expertise and it is very well written... Read more
Published 2 months ago by Mario A. Guzman
5.0 out of 5 stars Life Changer
I've read Mlodinow's "Subliminal" first. That is a later effort and actually a lot more accessible than this volume here. Read more
Published 2 months ago by R. D. Esmer
5.0 out of 5 stars Great book to get probabilistic/statistical thinking right
It is one of the best books I read recently. It is a cross between a popular science and text book on probability and statistics. Read more
Published 2 months ago by Fakrudeen Ali Ahmed
5.0 out of 5 stars Statistical Engineer
I really enjoyed this book - especially because it was free (borrowed from the local library).
I'm a quality engineer by practice who uses statistical engineering... Read more
Published 3 months ago by Michael Schultz
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More About the Author

Leonard Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, received his PhD in theoretical physics from the University of California at Berkeley, and is the author of five best-sellers. His book The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives was a New York Times Bestseller, Editor's Choice, and Notable Book of the Year, and was short-listed for the Royal Society book award. His other books include two co-authored with physicist Stephen Hawking -- A Briefer History of Time, and The Grand Design. In addition to his books and research articles, he has taught at Caltech, written for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and Forbes magazine, among other publications, and for television series such as McGyver and Star Trek: the Next Generation. www.leonardmlodinow.com


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Randomness or Design we do not see the rules?
"Randomness", as an applied category title, is likely often a failure to apprehend any significance of data which is poorly understood, incomplete and/or lacking context. [We are still young. I hope we will have the time to sort it all out.]
Aug 3, 2009 by B. Klockars |  See all 2 posts
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