The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World [Hardcover]

Paul Roberts (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: May 15, 2004

Petroleum is now so deeply entrenched in our economy, our politics, and our personal expectations that even modest efforts to phase it out are fought tooth and nail by the most powerful forces in the world: companies and governments that depend on oil revenues; the developing nations that see oil as the only means to industrial success; and a Western middle class that refuses to modify its energy-dependent lifestyle. But within thirty years, by even conservative estimates, we will have burned our way through most of the oil that is easily accessible. And well before then, the side effects of an oil-based society -- economic volatility, geopolitical conflict, and the climate-changing impact of hydrocarbon pollution -- will render fossil fuels an all but unacceptable solution. How will we break our addiction to oil? And what will we use in its place to maintain a global economy and political system that are entirely reliant on cheap, readily available energy?
Brilliantly reported from around the globe, The End of Oil brings the world situation into fresh and dramatic focus for business and general readers alike. Roberts talks to both oil optimists and oil pessimists, delves deep into the economics and politics of oil, considers the promises and pitfalls of alternatives, and shows that, although the world energy system has begun its epoch-defining transition, disruption and violent dislocation are almost assured if we do not take a more proactive stance. With the topicality and readability of Fast Food Nation and the scope and trenchant analysis of Guns, Germs, and Steel, this is a vitally important book for the new century.

Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

The End of Oil is a "geologic cautionary tale for a complacent world accustomed to reliable infusions of cheap energy." The book centers around one irrefutable fact: the global supply of oil is being depleted at an alarming rate. Precisely how much accessible (not to mention theoretical) oil remains is debatable, but even conservative estimates mark the peak of production in decades rather than centuries. Which energy sources will replace oil, who will control them, and how disruptive to the current world order the transition from one system to the next will be are just a few of the big questions that Paul Roberts attempts to answer in this timely book.

As Roberts makes abundantly clear, the major oil players in the world wield their enormous economic and political power in order to maintain the status quo. Of course, they get plenty of help from the tens of millions of consumers, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, who guzzle oil as if there is an unlimited supply. And this demand shows no sign of abating--nearly half of the world's population lives without the benefits of fossil fuels and they desperately want to be among the haves. In countries such as China and India, where energy systems are already breaking down, Roberts discusses how they are looking to oil to fuel their race for development, in many cases ignoring environmental considerations altogether.

Though there is much to be pessimistic about, Roberts does uncover some positive developments, such as the race for alternative energy sources, notably hydrogen fuel cells, which could help to ease us off of our oil dependence before a full-blown energy crisis occurs. No one book could cover every aspect of what Roberts calls "arguably the most serious crisis ever to face industrial society," but The End of Oil is a remarkably informative and balanced introduction to this pressing subject. --Shawn Carkonen

From Publishers Weekly

All economic activity is rooted in the energy economy, which means a substantial portion of the current world economy is linked to the production and distribution of oil. But what will happen, Roberts asks, when the well starts to run dry? Walking readers through the modern energy economy, he suggests that grim prospect may not be as far off as we'd like to think and points out how political unrest could disrupt the world's oil supply with disastrous results. But that could be the least of our worries; some of Roberts's most persuasive passages describe an almost inevitable future shaped by global warming, especially as rapidly industrializing countries like China begin to replicate the pollution history of the U.S. Some signs of hope are visible, he believes, especially in Europe, but the stumbling progress of potential alternatives such as hydrogen power or fuel cells is additional cause for concern. And though the current administration's energy policy gets plenty of criticism, Roberts (a regular contributor to Harper's) saves some of his harshest barbs for American consumers, described as "the least energy-conscious people on the planet." If the government won't create stricter fuel efficiency standards, he argues, blame must be placed equally on our eagerness to drive around in gas-guzzling SUVs and on corporate lobbying. Stressing the dire need to act now to create any meaningful long-term effect, this measured snapshot of our oil-dependent economy forces readers to confront unsettling truths without sinking into stridency. This book may very well become for fossil fuels what Fast Food Nation was to food or High and Mighty to SUVs.
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 400 pages
• Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt; First edition. edition (May 15, 2004)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0618239774
• ISBN-13: 978-0618239771
• Product Dimensions: 9.4 x 6.4 x 1.3 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.4 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (93 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,000,698 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Paul Roberts is the author of The End of Oil, a finalist for the New York Public Library's Helen Bernstein Book Award in 2005. He has written about resource economics and politics for numerous publications, including the Los Angeles Times, the Washington Post, and Rolling Stone, and lectures frequently on business and environmental issues. He lives in Washington State.

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

172 of 177 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Great overview of oil and energy August 7, 2004

By Autonomeus VINE™ VOICE

Format:Hardcover

Paul Roberts has put together a piece of reporting to do his profession proud. This is not just a book about oil, it covers energy as a whole. You can quibble with this or that detail (and I will), but this is an excellent introduction, the best single book on energy now available for ordinary citizens.

Roberts synthesizes the information he gathers superbly. The viewpoint he conveys is more optimistic than Heinberg's excellent The Party's Over (see my review) but more urgent and pessimistic than Economist reporter Vaitheeswaran's Power to the People (see my review). Roberts has no utopian libertarian illusions about business, but realizes that business is inevitably going to be part of the solutions that emerge, and so he gives careful thought to the role of corporations and industries.

Roberts does not explain how oil geologists use Hubbert's Curve to estimate oil reserves, and this is a weakness compared to Heinberg, Goodstein (Out of Gas -- see my review), or the oil geologists themselves, Deffeyes (Hubbert's Peak) or Campbell (The Coming Oil Crisis). But he doesn't base his analysis on the over-optimistic estimates of the U.S.G.S. or Exxon Mobil, so this is not a major shortcoming. A bigger problem is that he doesn't mention or apply EROEI analysis (energy return on energy invested). If he did, he might be more pessimistic, and for this crucial physics application, Heinberg and Goodstein are quite valuable.

Based on everything he learned in his reporting, Roberts concludes THE END OF OIL with recommendations for U.S. energy policy. Here are his three major proposals:

1) The government should move immediately and aggressively to boost natural gas supplies. Gas will only serve as a bridging fuel, and might last two or three decades.

2) The government should implement a "carbon penalty," not in the form of a carbon tax, but rather a carbon trading system, a cap-and-trade regime. He suggests a delayed start and low starting costs that would rise over time, giving industry a clear timeline so it can plan to make the needed transition to non-carbon energy sources. Along with the carbon penalty, a well-funded R&D program would be needed to develop coal gasification and carbon sequestration. Roberts sees this as politically necessary in order to coopt the powerful coal industry, which could otherwise block the needed changes.

3) Finally, the government needs to launch an all-out drive to reduce Americans' high consumption of oil and energy. Raising auto fuel efficiency is the obvious place to start, and does not have to be based on radical new designs, at least not at first. The details of Roberts's proposal takes into account the fierce resistance of the automobile industry, and is based on incentives, just as with the coal industry.

All of these steps are just part of a bridging strategy to a renewable energy economy. Roberts doesn't do justice to all of these possibilities, but presents fascinating glimpses into research on hydrogen, fuel cells, and solar energy, particularly the advances in solar that have been made in Germany.

Fossil fuels are on the way out, whether we like it or not -- they are not renewable, and so once extracted in a frighteningly short few years, that's it. For more on renewable energy, including solar, wind and biomass fuels, see Hermann Scheer's The Solar Economy: Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Global Future (see my review). A deliberate, proactive clean/renewable energy revolution is not taking place on schedule, and the likelihood grows greater with every passing year that social collapse will take place first, with the energy transition following of necessity. The best book on this is The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization by the Canadian political scientist Thomas Homer-Dixon.

My ENERGY REVOLUTION OR OVERSHOOT-AND-COLLAPSE? list has many more books on this subject.

129 of 138 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Jounalist vs Economist June 9, 2004

By "kd59"

Format:Hardcover

While the professional reviewers have given Robert's book only the highest of praise, (The New York Review of Books calls it "the best single book ever produced about our energy economy and its environmental implications") several reader-reviewers have faulted Roberts for not being an economist. As someone who had to endure a good deal of economics while earning my MBA, I can assure you, these unnamed, un-credentialed "reviewers" aren't economists either.
They all seem to have the same complaint: that Roberts doesn't understand economics because he doesn't believe the law of supply and demand will deliver us smoothly from our energy dilemma. Well, no one else who's taken more than freshman Economics 101 thinks supply/demand functions in that simplistic way either. Sure, the supply/demand dynamic is at work, but markets left to their own devices are quite capable of dragging us through shortages, depressions, environmental disasters, and even wars on their way to new equilibrium. Roberts doesn't fail to understand supply and demand. On the contrary, he sees it quite clearly, with all its real world complexity and danger, and helps the lay reader to see it as well. I have to wonder if these "reviewers" even finished the book.
The End Of Oil is written not by an economist (thank heavens!) but by a respected journalist who spent years interviewing economists and a myriad other energy experts and players. Roberts has done what few economists could have; written an accessible, readable, but comprehensive book that could get the American public thinking constructively about our energy strategy (or lack thereof).
In this country, we like to think the real power lies with the people, and I believe it does, but only when we can be bothered to exercise it. We must first recognize and understand an issue before we've any chance of voting wisely, whether with ballots or our wallets. Reading this book is an enjoyable, interesting first step.

40 of 42 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Readable, comprehensive and urgent October 14, 2006

By Dennis Littrell HALL OF FAMETOP 500 REVIEWERVINE™ VOICE

Format:Paperback

Let me be as concise as Roberts is comprehensive: this is best book on the looming energy crisis that I have read, and I have read half a dozen.

It's the best because it is the most thorough and the most readable. It is also very well researched and demonstrates the kind of understanding of a large and complex subject that inspires confidence.

So why do we have some negative reviews? It's hard to say since most of them are as vacuous as Roberts is detailed, but my guess is that some reviewers are offended because Roberts lays the blame for our energy problems on the politicians, in particular on the politicians currently in power, and he minces no words. To wit: "If American energy politics has always been dysfunctional, a new standard may have been set with the election of George W. Bush. The Texas Republican floated into office on a wave of campaign contributions from the energy and auto industries ($2.4 million from carmakers alone), and proceeded to assemble a White House that was closely aligned with both industries." (p. 298)

I also noticed that one reviewer thinks that Roberts doesn't realize that hydrogen is essentially a storage medium. One has only to read the book to see that Roberts has a commanding understanding of the so-called hydrogen economy based on the fuel cell, and a firm grasp of the problems involved in getting there.

Roberts touts renewables and anything that limits the amount of carbon that goes into the atmosphere. This does not set well with the fossil fuel industry, especially with the powers that be in Vice-President Cheney's home state of Wyoming where the coal reserves are enormous. He also touts conservation and shows how following the administration of Jimmy Carter it became something of a dirty word, so much so that now it is better to speak of energy efficiency than to actually tell people they ought to conserve, or heaven forbid, put on cardigan sweaters as Carter did. To me the most remarkable chapter in the book is the one on conservation and energy efficiency, Chapter 9 "Less is More." Can you imagine how such a statement as "Less is More" would appear to a conference of Texas oil men? You might as well be a vegan at the barbeque.

Roberts estimates that "if efficiency were approached not simply as an afterthought but as a core element in industrial design" the total savings would be enormous. "[R]eengineering the entire car concept around fuel efficiency...could yield gasoline-powered cars that get not just forty miles per gallon but sixty miles per gallon or even eighty miles per gallon... Introducing vehicles like this on a global scale would save as much oil as is produced by all the members of OPEC combined..." (pp. 227-228)

Why hasn't that been done? The reason is complex, and a good way to appreciate the forces working against conservation and efficiency is to read this book. Roberts spent a lot of time and energy finding out why we are in the fix we're in, and he does an outstanding job of explaining it to the general reader.

But, strange to say, after reading this book I am not as pessimistic as I once was. I think we are going to solve our energy problems through the combination of existing energy sources, oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, wind, solar and other fringe renewables, and especially through conservation and a more efficient use of the energy we have. (By the way, Roberts' discussion of natural gas and how it is coming heavily to market and why right now, is very interesting.) As any astute economist knows, a penny saved is better than a penny earned (if only because of taxes!), so it is true that energy not wasted is cheaper and more reliable than energy that we have to get from OPEC.

There is a slight danger however of an incredibly horrendous downside in this brave new world that I hope will be there for my grandchildren. If we continue to go hog wild with fossil fuels, especially if China, the US and the rest of the world indiscriminately burn coal to fire our economies, we may put so much CO2 into the air that we will not be able to stop a runaway green house effect. That danger is worse than a nuclear winter: think of Venus where lead melts on the surface on the planet. That could happen here, and we could get beyond the point of no return without realizing it.

That danger alone is reason enough to work as diligently as possible to find ways to avoid using fossil fuels, but if we must, pay the cost to "scrub" them and dispose of the carbon without letting it get into the air. Roberts gives a good idea of the problems involved in doing this and where the technology and--more importantly--where the mentality of our leaders is on this subject.

Ignore the nay-sayers. This is an outstanding book.