The book _The Fourth Turning_ is a history combined with prophecy written by generational sociologists William Strauss and Neil Howe. This book is inspiring and provides interesting explanations for why things are the way they turned out to be, but it still doesn't have all the answers.
The theory is basically that history goes through four types of turnings: a conservative High, in which institutions are stable after the success of a major war (the Era of Good Feelings, the Victorian Era, the '50s), a spiritual Awakening in which young people scrap convention for religious discovery (Ben Franklin's Great Awakening, the Transcendental Awakening, the turn-of-the-century Muckrake reform era, the '60s), a wild Unravelling (the colorful Gold Rush, the roaring twenties, and the current era that began about 1984), and a fourth turning -- or Crisis (the Revolutionary War, the Civil War and the Great Depression and World War II were the last three examples). A catalyst will spark the Fourth Turning that will become around 2005. These turnings change when each generation enters a new phase of life.
After you read this book, it's one of those books that completely transforms your mode of thinking. Both the present and the prophesied future are explained by means of generations -- fit into four different types ("archetypes") that shift along with the turnings. The authors identify the Lost Generation (born 1883-1900), the G.I. Generation (born 1901-1924), the Silent Generation (born 1925-1942), the Baby Boomers (born 1943-1960), the 13th Generation (born 1961-1981) and the Millennial Generation (born since 1982). They explain how these generations relate to those throughout history, and date the historical generations born all the way back to 1433. Generation X, for instance, which corresponds roughly with what they identify as the 13th Generation, is similar to the freewheeling Lost Generation of the Roaring '20s, their flouting of the Drug War brings to mind the Lost Generation during the Prohibition Era. Once you read this book, you start to think of everyone generationally, all your family and friends, people you know, celebrities, people you read about in the news, historical figures, the characters on TV shows and the ages of people in TV commercials. Your mind accepts a completely new paradigm -- and a classification of people that works, as the authors state, much more reliably than gender, ethnicity, or even region of the U.S.
Not to say that there aren't problems with this book. They broke off the 13th Generation from the Millennial Generation at 1981/1982 in their earlier work _Generations_, written in 1991, and have continued to keep this boundary and their early descriptions for the Millennials in this book. The kids born in 1982, whom they place as the first Millennials, were just entering high school when this book was written and were predicted to become known as a conventional, traditional and "Scout-like" generation, keeping a reputation as little angels. Unfortunately, none of the 1982, 1983, 1984... kids I know have this personality...their breakoff may have come a little too early I fear. Not all their predictions from this or earlier books have succeeded, but that's all right, because future or no future, the pattern works remarkably well as a mnemonic device for remembering and understanding history perfectly well, making the order in which historical figures came along much more memorable. I wish I'd had this way of studying history when I was in high school!
From this they prophesy the future -- that America is poised to enter a Crisis Era shortly around 2005, just when the generations are ripe. This era will see a national mood of extreme urgency, sweeping changes made in national policy, and a change across the generations to a much more traditional lifestyle and set of values, as Strauss and Howe predict. This book is a thought-provoking read, but if you're looking for something to explain 9-11 as so many of us were, don't look here. _The Fourth Turning_ was written about a "catalyst" for a Crisis that will change the direction of institutions in the year 2005, or if not in 2005, shortly before or after. All everyday interests in entertainment are supposed to disappear, and the change will be caused by something that wouldn't have brought about a drastic change in mood 10 years ago. It will be caused by the alignment of generations around 2005, when the Boomers are ready to enter elderhood (turn 65) and the Silent Generation is going to be into its eighties and start disappearing from the scene. It was NOT written about catastrophes like 9-11 or similar events. We get these extreme drastic events from time to time that shock people temporarily, as 9-11 did, just because of their intensity and death toll, wherever they occur. Look around 2003-2008 for the "Catalyst" Strauss and Howe have identified to pop up and permanently change the public mood. It will be something that will change the era and bring America to crisis because all the generations are poised and ready to enter their new stage of life.
In addition to its imperfections, the book has a heavily conservative bent sticking out, no doubt reflecting some of the attitudes and wishes of the authors. I cannot forgive the book's forceful attitude, pushing us all to get back to trust in public institutions and in the government. Strauss and Howe call for conservative restrictions on behavior to get the next turning pushing along. For instance, they advise the reader in getting ready for the next Crisis to give up any eccentric behavioral habits he or she may have. They tell the reader to put "duties over rights" and to conform to the standards of decency of his community. Even before the Fourth Turning, there is no doubt a single agenda they push without compromise, in what one would think would be a totally neutral book in the values regime department.
All in all, read this book if you're interested in history and generations (but take the generational boundaries and collective personalities with a grain of salt), and don't look for ALL your answers here.
