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The Future, Declassified: Megatrends That Will Undo the World Unless We Take Action Hardcover – September 9, 2014

3.5 out of 5 stars 14 customer reviews

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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 288 pages
  • Publisher: St. Martin's Press (September 9, 2014)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 1137279559
  • ISBN-13: 978-1137279552
  • Product Dimensions: 6.4 x 1 x 9.5 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 3.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (14 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #815,789 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Top Customer Reviews

By B. Case TOP 500 REVIEWERVINE VOICE on September 9, 2014
Format: Hardcover
This book is a popular narrative treatment and update of the most recent U.S. National Intelligence Council's (NIC) strategic planning report series entitled "Global Trends." These very successful documents are produced every-five-years by the NIC and are available as free downloads from their Website. Mathew Burrows, the author of "The Future, Declassified: Megatrends That Will Undo the World Unless We Take Action," served as the principal author of the most recent NIC Global Trends documents ("Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds"). As a result, he is eminently qualified to write this narrative and updated treatment on the same subject. This book is well-written and intellectually enjoyable, but is not as journalistically breezy and entertaining as other writers who've produced bestsellers in this geopolitical forecasting category (e.g., Thomas Friedman's "Hot, Flat, and Crowded" or Fareed Zakaria's "The Post-American World").

The question is: if you are interested in geopolitical megatrends, why should you buy and read this 288-page book rather than download the free original "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" document and read that 160-page report? The answer boils down to how you like to read about long-range geopolitical forecasting: as a concise formal government document with lots of tables, executive summaries, bullets, and headers; or as a longer, more-easygoing, journalistic-type narrative. The NIC report was published in December of 2012. This book updates the world situation with further examples, but the trends remain the same as those in the 2012 document.

Another question might be: why should you be interested in geopolitical megatrends?
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Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase
The author Mathew Burrows describes the known challenges to the US and the West, and then divides each challenge into smaller and more workable parts. Both the challenges and responses are widely known, however, this book is unique in that it provides an accurate synopsis. It is also likely that all of these civilizational challenges must be solved by 2030 or before, since any one challenge left unmet may undermine progress in other parts of the world. Specifically, the major challenges include but are not limited to: 1) a fifty percent increase in world energy demands over the next 15 to 20 years (p. 90); 2) a world population of 8.3 billion in 2030, trending up to eleven billion or more ("A global population of almost 11 billion could be devastating for the planet...") (p. 88, 89); 3) huge increases in demand for freshwater, up by forty percent in 2030 (p. 84); 4) intractable US federal budget deficits and debt (p. 245), and risks to US economic strength ("The keystone of national power for the United States remains its economic strength and innovation" (p. 155); 5) the decline in funding for basic science research (p. 246); 6) a splintered world that lacks US leadership or guidance (p. 157). All of these major challenges are covered with precise detail and documentation..

These are the challenges which call for responses, and these responses would be "unprecedented efforts" (Arnold Toynbee, A Study of History, p. 570) or "radical changes" (Burrows, p. 243). This perspective is based on Arnold Toynbee's "challenge and response theory", under which nations or civilizations must respond to challenges, or decline and eventually vanish. In this book, the proposed responses are also called "radical changes" (p.
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Format: Hardcover
"However you cut it, the West will increasingly be in a minority and in a much more power-diffuse environment. The health of the global economy will be increasingly linked to how well the developing world does. Global wealth is shifting. In 2008, China overtook the United States as the world's largest saver. By 2020, emerging markets' share of financial assets is projected to double. Emerging markets will become a more important source of capital for the world economy." - page 152

Are you itching to know what is in store for America and the world at-large in the years to come? Are you worried about the potential impact of climate change or the possibility of cyber warfare? What about all of the exciting new technologies on the horizon.....what are the potential benefits and risks? What is the likelihood of another world war? Exactly what is our world going to look like in the year 2030? For more than a decade Mathew Burrows has worked at the National Intelligence Council. The NIC is charged with providing political leaders and policy makers at the highest levels of the U.S. government with the very latest unbiased, unvarnished information about what the future might look like. Every four years the NIC issues a report called "Global Trends" that examines key issues such as demographics, globalization and the changing environment. The most recent report known as "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" is designed to stimulate thinking about about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years.
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