The Future of Power [Hardcover]

Joseph S. Nye Jr. (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: February 1, 2011

In the era of Kennedy and Khrushchev, power was expressed in terms of nuclear missiles, industrial capacity, numbers of men under arms, and tanks lined up ready to cross the plains of Eastern Europe. By 2010, none of these factors confer power in the same way: industrial capacity seems an almost Victorian virtue, and cyber threats are wielded by non-state actors. Politics changed, and the nature of power—defined as the ability to affect others to obtain the outcomes you want—had changed dramatically. Power is not static; its story is of shifts and innovations, technologies and relationships.

Joseph Nye is a long-time analyst of power and a hands-on practitioner in government. Many of his ideas have been at the heart of recent debates over the role America should play in the world: his concept of "soft power" has been adopted by leaders from Britain to China; "smart power” has been adopted as the bumper-sticker for the Obama Administration’s foreign policy. This book is the summation of his work, as relevant to general readers as to foreign policy specialists. It is a vivid narrative that delves behind the elusive faces of power to discover its enduring nature in the cyber age.

Editorial Reviews

From Booklist

Harvard professor Nye, who served in the state and defense departments of the Carter and Clinton administrations, respectively, was among the first to promulgate the notion of soft power and, subsequently, smart power�a concept the Obama administration seems to have fully embraced. But here Nye gives �smart power� far more depth and nuance than merely marrying force and persuasion. Rather, it involves setting clear and manageable objectives, understanding the resources available within dynamic circumstances, understanding the sensibilities of the targets of a country�s objectives, choosing among �power strategies,� and anticipating the success of those strategies. If the book sounds wonky, it is. But Nye brings specific historical examples to give life to his far-ranging understanding of power, and he realistically sets his book amid the complex dynamics of the world�s geopolitical players. Given Nye�s prominence in the diplomatic community, this volume is likely to attract considerable attention. --Alan Moores

Review

Madeleine K. Albright, former U.S. Secretary of State
“Joseph Nye is America’s foremost expert on the substance, diversity, uses, and abuses of power. He writes with insights that a president or secretary of state would find valuable, and makes foreign policy less foreign for every reader. If your goal is to understand world affairs in the twenty-first century, there could be no better guide than The Future of Power.”

Walter Isaacson, president and CEO of The Aspen Institute
“Power once came from controlling the sea lanes. In the future, Joe Nye explains, it will come from the ability to navigate the information lanes of cyberspace and control the narrative that influences people. Sweeping in its themes but specific in its examples, this book is exciting to read and fascinating to contemplate.”

Economist, February 4, 2011
"If…you find yourself hankering after sturdier fare, then salvation is at hand in the form of Joseph Nye's painstaking new work, The Future of Power.…The book comes alive when Mr. Nye…cast[s] doubt on the idea that America is in precipitate decline."

Kirkus, January 15, 2011
"Illuminating analysis of the mechanisms of power shaping global politics…. Nye Jr.’s latest book steers the traditional debate over power politics into a new direction….The author’s sober, rigorous analysis anchors a debate that seems to be squirming from the grip of most media. A great reminder that fear and hate are not the only tools used to sell books these days—a substantial work that should be read by anyone with an interest in how politics works."

Finacial Times, March 6, 2011
“An illuminating distillation of the power relationships shaping a world in which the state with the best military can lose to the adversary with the better story…Nye makes sense of these new complexities.”
 

Washington Times, April 5, 2011

“Nye’s writing style is accessible even when his subject grows more complex…. A helpful primer to better understand the tools available to those formulating America’s foreign policy.”

Foreign Affairs, March/April 2011
“Nye is the preeminent theorist of power in world affairs today, and this book is a grand synthesis of his ideas and an essential guide to the debate over the decline of the United States and the rise of China.”
 

LA Times, March 25, 2011

“Whether it's navigating the political waves of the Middle East or the diplomatic dance with China, the book offers a generous batch of insights…. Nye is a savvy and respected analyst, and he doesn't disappoint here. He's grappling with the hardest of questions, and though The Future of Power can at times read somewhat meanderingly, it's the best kind of meandering: a learned journey through big ideas of what power means and how it is ever-evolving.”

Washington Post, April 1, 2011

“Insightful, readable… Rich in clever one-liners and felicitous phrases…. Nye is a master of his field at the height of his powers.”

 

New Statesman
“As power moves from west to east and from the palaces of dictators to the street, it is not just the identities of power brokers that are changing: so is the very meaning of power. No one is better placed to explain these trends than the scholar-statesman Joe Nye… The Future of Power contains important essays on both ‘cyber power’ and ‘American decline’, but what is most useful is Nye’s subtle exegesis of the mechanics of more conventional forms of power.”

Guardian (UK), May 29, 2011

“Nye has a lot of interesting points to make against conventional wisdom in matters geopolitical and cultural.”

 

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 320 pages
• Publisher: PublicAffairs; 1 edition (February 1, 2011)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1586488910
• ISBN-13: 978-1586488918
• Product Dimensions: 6.1 x 1.1 x 9.2 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 3.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (21 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #239,734 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Most Helpful Customer Reviews

36 of 39 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Balanced and Convincing February 4, 2011

By Ann L. Hollick

Format:Hardcover

Joseph Nye's new book on the Future of Power brings reasoned analysis to bear on anxious predictions of America's relative decline vis a vis a rising China. While not ruling out the danger of conflict, Nye sees no need for the U.S. and China to go to war in the 21st century if Chinese hubris and American fears can be held in check. This volume goes a long way toward achieving that worth while objective. Building on his earlier study of soft and hard power, Nye argues that China and the US have much to gain from working together on major global challenges ranging from financial stability to climate change. This cooperation would, in Nye's words, represent the exercise of "smart power."

44 of 55 people found the following review helpful

3.0 out of 5 stars American Empire vs. Global Governance February 13, 2011

By David Hillstrom

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase

The US has, since WWII, been the most powerful and influential country in the world. Following the collapse of the Communist system in 1990 it is the sole super power. Nonetheless, there have been limits to the extension of American power. The most obvious example is the defeat in Vietnam. More recently, in response to the terrorist attacks on 9/11, the US has become engaged in new wars of occupation in Afghanistan and Iraq. And the prognosis of those state building projects remains uncertain today.

Joseph S. Nye Jr. has provided a new book, The Future of Power, to assess American power and consider the future of America's reach. In some ways this book is an example par excellence of realpolitik. He offers a reasoned approach to assessing the limits of power and provides a methodology, which he terms `smart power,' as a strategy for the successful extension of American influence in the world. He explains that, while the US remains the dominate military power by far, it cannot successfully impose its will on the world order through military might alone. This is, as far as it goes, a rational critique of US policy and its continued reliance upon projected military strength. Indeed the US cannot afford the expense of maintaining military dominance and policing the world. So the author suggests a mix of soft and hard power that are measured against a prioritized list of goals in order to achieve the maximum influence possible. This is the essence of smart power. His advice would certainly be useful, if it were taken to heart by the many old cold-warriors who lead government policy. So from this perspective I think that The Future of Power is a worthy book.

However, in the long run not even smart power will be adequate.... The US is losing ground economically in the world economy. Consequently, it will not be capable of maintaining its decisive lead in military prowess. Hence, the reliance on soft power will become ever more important. Why not recognize the trend and stand down earlier on the foolish race to maintain military dominance? In any case shouldn't one question the basic premise of Mr. Nye's book? Why is it important that the US maintain the maximum influence possible within the global community? The author never considers calling this unspoken premise into question. Surely there is a moral dilemma here. Hence, I recommend a more radical perspective on the issue of American power, such as that presented by Andrew J. Bacevich in his excellent book, Washington Rules.

David Hillstrom
Author of The Bridge Read more ›

15 of 17 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent work February 19, 2011

By JunkyardWisdom

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase

The book focuses on how nations can exert influence. The two simplistic methods are hard power (mostly military strength) and soft power (cultural appeal, foreign aid, persuasion, etc.). Nye argues that both are important and that the proper balance between the two is what he calls "smart power." Nye focuses on rising nations that may not always see eye-to-eye with America. His conclusions strike me as accurate and remarkably well said. He has an upbeat view of America's future in the 21st Century. Academic but still approachable for the rest of us, this is a great book to read if you want to better understand America's role in the world.

9 of 11 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars EXTRAORDINARY - The Only Word That Could Describe Nye's Work!!!!! - FIVE STARS May 19, 2011

By A Customer TOP 1000 REVIEWERVINE™ VOICE

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase

I have read a book a day for several decades, and consequently it has been my subjective experience that about one out of every 100 books is a gem, an absolutely wonderful gift to the reader. This book is that gem, and one simply has to read it with an open mind to gain an understanding of how the world works. Regardless of what side of the political fence you find yourself on, the left or the right, you will find The Future of Power to be INTENSE, PROVOCATIVE, and NECESSARY.

One can choose to maintain their preconceived notions about power, but after reading this book, it becomes clear that such people will be swept aside by the future that Nye describes so clearly. Your understanding of power will never be the same. We are at an inflection point in world history, and our traditional understanding of extrapolating the past into the future will not be a guide for what is coming next, but this book will be such a guide. If I had to use single words to describe what is in this book, I would say:

* Original

* Brilliant

* Readable

* Clear

* Pragmatic

* Lucid

* Sweeping

* Influential

* Seminal

Nye comes to us with extraordinary credentials. The fact that he was Dean of the Harvard School of Government (JFK School) for several years, I do not hold against him. His work in government including high positions at the National Security Council, National Intelligence Council, and the Defense Department have allowed him both influence, and the ability to evolve on a real world basis....

ORGANIZATION OF THE BOOK

The book is divided into 7 chapters spread over 235 pages divided into three parts:

Part I Types of Power

Part II Power Shifts - Diffusions and Transitions

Part III Policy

Of the 7 chapters, I found four to be so original that they are completely unique, and Nye's understanding or framework as to how the world works is not to be missed. They are:

Chapter 2) Military Power

Chapter 3) Economic Power

Chapter 4) Soft Power

Chapter 6) Power Transition: The Question of America's Decline

WHAT NYE IS TELLING US?

Nye is telling us what the future holds, we merely have to grasp onto it, and absorb it. This book is in the same league and influence, as Carroll Quigley's Tragedy and Hope. Quigley, the Georgetown University master historian who influenced Bill Clinton and his thinking more than any other scholar in Clinton's career.

Nye believes that those who think America is in a serious state of decline are mistaken because the traditional tools used to measure such a statement are no longer applicable. Power is no longer measured in nuclear missiles, military forces, or pounds of steel produced by an industrial economy. Power as Nye defines it now has to do with soft power, smart power, influence, persuasion and trust. Smart Power is a combination of the hard power of coercion and partly with the soft power of persuasion.

Joseph Stalin the Soviet dictator once asked how many divisions does the Pope have? Fifty years later, Russia and Stalin are relegated to the ash heaps of history and the Pope survives. The Defense Department spends $650 billion per year on Hard Power while the State Department spends $36 billion per year on Soft Power. David Hume the 18th century philosopher once said that "No human is strong enough to dominate all others acting alone". Today we can say the same thing about countries. India two centuries ago with 300 million was dominated by 100,000 British soldiers. In the 1800's France conquered Algeria with 34,000 troops. In the 20th century 600,000 members of the French Foreign Legion could not hold Algeria together.

We must no longer measure power in resources, or units of production. We must begin to measure it in terms of preferred outcomes. Our country represents only 5% of the world's population but 25% of the world's production. We shall probably maintain our position versus the world for the rest of this century, but only if we learn to understand the new dimensions of Power and how to evolve with them. This book unlike any other will begin to show us how, if we want to.

IS NYE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT AMERICA?

There have been 9 world wars since 1500, and what Nye is looking for now is the reemergence of China as a world power which it once was from 500 AD to 1500 AD before declining in the face of Western power from 1500 AD to this century. What Nye so wisely points out is that an economy equal in total size to ours does not mean EQUALITY.
America does not have to lose power, hard or soft. In fact the rest of the world is years behind our hard power. By ourselves we represent 45% of the entire world's defense expenditures - too much by any standard.

It is time to dramatically increase our soft power expenditures, to continue to maintain our edge, and perhaps expand upon it. As China continues to grow, they will have to consume themselves with the more than 1 billion have-nots in their society. They have over a billion people with less than 85 million doing well. There is no health care to speak of, and all of this has to change and be factored into what will happen to their economy and nobody, certainly not American economists are getting it right.

CONCLUSION:

This book demands to be read, and analyzed, and thought over. Nye is perhaps unique in his understanding of power. To read this book is to be transformed, and enlightened, and certainly to see things differently than you thought they were. I loved it and believe you will too, and thank you for reading this review.

Richard Stoyeck Read more ›

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful

3.0 out of 5 stars America's power is in absolute decline October 6, 2011

By Shahir ShahidSaless

Format:Hardcover

In "The Future of Power", to answer the question of whether or not the American power will decline, Nye distinguishes absolute decline from relative decline. He admits that new powers will rise thus, causing the US relative decline. However, he argues that "America is not in absolute decline." This review refutes Nye's contention and argues that America is in absolute decline.

Nye examines several areas. Militarily, Nye claims that the world is "largely unipolar". Economically, quoting economists, he highlights that "possessing both the world's reserve currency and its (America's) most liquid asset market in treasury bonds" as "two huge advantages" of the United States "over other countries". Politically, quoting Lawrence Freedman, he notes that there are "two features which distinguish it (the US) from the great powers of the past: American power is based on alliances rather than colonies and is associated with an ideology that is flexible." Technologically and scientifically, huge investment in research and development will lead to a comparative advantage of the US over all other nations according to Nye. In his final assessment, Nye echoes a moderate version of unipolarism. He contends that describing power transition in the twenty-first century is inaccurate. According to Nye the United States is not in absolute decline, and in relative terms, there is a reasonable probability that it will remain more powerful than any single state in the coming decades. Nye's assertions could be challenged from different angels.

a) Militarily, as it has always been, a strong military is a necessary condition for acquiring a great power status. Nevertheless, it is not clear how the American superior military can prevent its decline in the world's contemporary order.... Unlike the Cold-War era in the absence of demand for its military power it would be harder for the United States to exercise hegemony through its allies. Besides,Creveld rightfully maintains that: "conventional armed forces possess equipment useless in today's wars because it is too expensive, too fast, too indiscriminate, too big, too cumbersome, and too powerful". In Van Creveld's analysis, chaos and mayhem will replace war in world affairs. To sum up, it is hard to see the relevance of the U.S. military power as a factor preventing its decline.
b) Economically, deregulation and lack of meaningful regulations create opportunity for a minority to make large amounts of money rather quickly, however, cause huge losses to the economy in the long-term. This problem has its origins in the American political system. The system by a large margin reflects the views and preferences of the rich in the adopted policies. The recent crisis (as well as the dotcom crisis) indicates that the interests of the Wall Street executives and other risk-takers do not necessarily coincide with the interests of the economy as a whole. In the absence of meaningful regulations it is reasonable to expect more crises and the likely decline of the economy. How plausible is a reform to fix the large representational biases in the U.S.? As Robert Lieberman maintains: "Policies in the United States, once made, tend to be hard to overturn or even to modify". Furthermore, such a reform is not a matter of simply changing a law. It involves deep and structural changes including ideological changes within the political system. Besides, such a reform should be shaped by the same politicians who are either rich - as is the case of Senators - or have direct or indirect links to the rich. Therefore, more likely than not, the existing order will prevail.
c) The US will lose its soft power. The American model has been extremely efficient and attractive in many aspects. Yet, the political system has been insensitive to the widening inequalities. As a result, the United States is now among the worst in terms of both poverty and inequality among the OECD countries (only better than Mexico and Turkey). The political system in the United States shows severe representational biases towards the affluent. Because of this representational bias, Bartels and Gilens both conclude that democracy is degrading in the United States. Degradation of democracy, due to significant unresponsiveness to the low-income preferences, means that the American political system does not "live up" to its values thus, applying Nye's own theory, this, over time, will damage the American soft power in the international arena and results in its decline.
d) At the heart of my argument is that the dollar will gradually lose its role as the American "exorbitant privilege". This process is partly due to the constant - and now heightened - tension between the national and international role of the dollar. As a national currency, the U.S. government takes advantage of the dollar position to carry an unprecedented debt, craft bailouts, and adopt quantitative easing to stimulate the economy. Internationally, this process makes the public lenders and investors nervous, thus, abandoning the dollar as the international currency becomes a reasonable solution. Besides, uncertainties about the soundness of the American economy accelerate the departure from the dollar. Statistics show that the worldwide share of the dollar as a reserve currency has dropped from 70.9% in 1999 to 62.2% in 2009. There is no convincing sign that this trend will stop or reverse.
e) Technologically and scientifically, there are convincing indications that the U.S. is losing its comparative advantage. According to the UNESCO report the U.S. share of the world class articles in engineering and science fell from 30.9% in 2002 to 27.7% in 2008. It is important to note that this decline relates to the period before the economic downturn. In other words the relative scientific superiority is not caused by the economic situation of the country. In the same period, China doubled its share going from 5.2% to 10.6%. The National Intelligence Council acknowledges that the "near to monopoly position of the U.S. in cyber and space will disappear in 2025". Nye maintains that American inventors registered about 80,000 patents in the United States in 2007. However, he ignores the fact that 51 percent of the US patents were awarded to non-US companies according to the U.S. National Academies . Read more ›