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The Great Crash Ahead: Strategies for a World Turned Upside Down [Kindle Edition]

Harry S. Dent , Rodney Johnson
3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (84 customer reviews)

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Book Description

In his most recent New York Times bestselling book, The Great Depression Ahead, Harry S. Dent, Jr., predicted that the stimulus plan created in response to the first crisis would hit demographic and debt saturation headwinds and ultimately fail. In 2010, the stimulus plan had started to fail, and it was already stalling by the first quarter of 2011. The Great Crash Ahead outlines why the next crash and crisis is inevitable, and just around the corner—coming between 2012 and 2014.

With incisive critical analysis and historical examples, this book lays bare the traditional assumptions of economics. Dent shows that the government doesn’t drive our economy, consumers and businesses do; that the Fed does not create most of the money in our economy, the private banking system does; and that the largest generation in history is now saving for or moving into retirement, meaning slowing growth. This is the new normal! Our banking system borrowed to lend for the first time in history with unprecedented leverage and debt levels of $42 trillion, way beyond the massive government debt. But the government’s promises and unfunded liabilities take the cake, at an estimated $66 trillion and growing!

These massive debts will have to be restructured in a time of slowing spending, and this means a deflationary crisis, which is very different from the inflationary crisis of the 1970s and requires very different personal, investment, and business strategies. Dent and Johnson outline these strategies in very practical detail. In the coming years, the greatest surprise will be that the U.S. dollar becomes the safe haven and appreciates just when everyone is calling for it to crash, while the gold and silver bubbles burst along with the stock and commodity bubbles. And real estate will see another round of declines just when everyone thought it could go no lower. The Great Crash Ahead is about making smart, cautious investments—avoiding the sort of high-risk, high-profit investment schemes that sank the world economy.

The road to recovery will be filled with challenges and will require massive change, such as debt restructuring, plans for greater employment, the restructuring of social welfare programs such as social security and health care, budget cuts, and higher taxes—in short, a revision of the kind of lifestyle that characterized the “Roaring 2000s.” The good news is this process will eliminate tens of trillions of dollars of debt and can make way for growth again as the echo boom generation ascends. Or we can continue on our present course and end up like the Japanese, with no growth and high debt two decades later.


Editorial Reviews

Review

"Dent brings more very convincing analysis on the unbearable debt that is weighing down the US and world economy. But more important, he brings the unique lens of demographics to show how the Fed's stimulus plan is doomed to fail with the rising savings and slowing spending of the massive Baby Boom generation. A must read book for prospering in the inevitable debt crisis ahead."

--John Mauldin, 4 times New York Times best selling author of Endgame and financial newsletter publisher of Thoughts from the Frontline and Outside the Box

“I have watched Harry Dent's unique demographic approach to the economy and his forecasts for over 20 years. He has seen most of the key economic changes way ahead of most. In fact, he forecast the current economic crisis 20 years ago! He has spoken at many of my events around the world and has helped many prepare for the unprecedented economic challenges we are facing today. But perhaps the best thing about Harry is his very human, understandable and common sense approach to economics.”

- Anthony Robbins, Entrepreneur, Author and Peak Performance Strategist

“You can't accuse Harry Dent of being a wimpy thinker. His new book is full of confident analysis and bold predictions. Whether he will be right about all of it, who can say? But his core theme is fascinating and provocative; his book is a delight.”

--William Bonner, President and CEO of Agora Inc.; author of Dice Have No Memory and Empire of Debt

“While being one of the most bullish and accurate forecasters for 20 years, Dent has always been warning that this great boom would end around 2008-2009. He now sees a bigger crash ahead and a deflationary environment that could ravage your portfolio. His warnings and predictions are well worth reading and taking seriously.”

--David Bach, #1 New York Times bestselling author of Start Late, Finish Rich and Debt Free for Life

“The Great Crash Ahead” sounds ominous, but it doesn't have to be if you know what factors to look at when making new decisions about your career, your investments and your business model. The old remedies won't work anymore, but visionaries Harry Dent and Rodney Johnson provide their unique insight on how to make your future a prosperous one.

--Ed Slott, CPA, author, IRA expert, creator of PBS Special “Stay Rich Forever and Ever”

“Dent is the reigning expert in using sophisticated demographic models to see around the economic corner. He saw the boom of the 1990s and warned that a bust would come in 2008 forward. Now he tells us the worst is not over. Harry makes a clear and compelling case for what could be a tough time ahead.”

--Robert D. McTeer, Distinguished Fellow, National Center for Policy Analysis, and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

About the Author

Harry S. Dent, Jr. is the president of the H.S. Dent Foundation, whose mission is "Helping People Understand Change." He is the founder of HS Dent, which publishes the HS Dent Forecast and oversees the HS Dent Financial Advisors Network. He is the author of the New York Times bestseller, The Great Depression Ahead, as well as of The Great Boom Ahead, in which he stood virtually alone in accurately forecasting the unanticipated "boom" of the 1990s. A Harvard MBA, Fortune 100 consultant, new venture investor, and noted speaker, Mr. Dent is a highly respected figure in his field.

Product Details


Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews
108 of 114 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars As a long-term reader of Harry Dent December 27, 2011
By TS 2912
Format:Hardcover|Verified Purchase
In 1994 I read Harry Dent's "Great Boom Ahead" and it was extraordinarily prescient... he foresaw the demographics-based boom of the late 90s and early 2000s as well as our current economic depression. I went on to buy all his other books and they provide invaluable predictions on demographic-based economic conditions all over the world and over the next few decades.

Harry Dent also provides valuable insights into emerging technologies and business processes.

As long as you follow him on those areas, you will do fine.

But... if you follow his investment advice on equities, inflation and commodities you WILL lose a lot of money (his predictions on stock market valuations were awful as was the performance of his various financial funds).
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125 of 136 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover|Verified Purchase
Inflation versus Deflation. It's one of the most hotly contested topics in economic and financial circles. As a college instructor and business writer, there are a few authors that I always make a point of reading...Dent is one of them in part because of his deflationary position. He is an unapologetic, hard-core deflationist...I'm not, but there is a great deal of value in keeping an open mind and considering all points of view.

However, Dent is also a superb researcher with a focus/concentration upon demographic research which is worth the time and effort to read in its own right. Unlike many authors that fail to provide sufficient references or resources for their claims (ie, opinions), Dent takes great pain to substantiate all conclusions with research, data, articles and graphics while remaining reader-friendly and engaging.

The first section of the book covers basic economic and fiscal theory, history and the expected "how we got here"...depending upon your school of thought, you may agree or disagree with some of the assumptions but the data is equally fresh and relevant. Dent does a stellar job with this section and really goes above and beyond the same old stale data to truly paint a picture of the madness gripping both this nation and the globe.

Next, the book covers what "to do" and what "not to do" with an emphasis on small business owners rather than merely individual investors. Both are included which is a nice change from solely a personal finance perspective.

Finally, there are pages upon pages of references for those interested in pursuing additional readers...as well as the "sales pitches". Now, as for the "sales pitches"...these are a modern irritation which I've never quite learned to live with.
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88 of 98 people found the following review helpful
Format:Kindle Edition|Verified Purchase
The Great Crash is Harry Dent's best book, and I strongly recommend it.

Economic doomsaying is nothing new. Howard Ruff and others sold a lot of books in the 1970s advising people to buy gold and silver to survive the "certain" financial disaster that never happened.

And many others now are predicting either hyperinflation or deflation will soon destroy the world's economy.

Dent is different because he doesn't just rail against excess government spending like an Old Testament prophet, but points out a dimension of society ignored by most economists: demographics.

In the late 1980s, while the perennial Chicken Littles were claiming the sky would fall because of the size of the government's budget then, Dent said the 1990s and 2000s would be an economic boom time. Why? Because the baby boomer generation would be entering its greatest earning and spending years.

He also pointed out (yes, 20 years ago) that this would end around 2010 or so, and there'd be a crash, a depression that would probably dwarf the 1930s lasting until around 2024.

We've lived through the boom, and now we're entering the crash, so that's what this book is about.

The theme of this book is that the huge amount of debt we've created at all levels from you and me to all developed country governments -- combined with the aging of the baby boomers and the consequent change in their spending and investing patterns -- is going to slow the world's economic growth for years to come.

In fact, it's going to create a situation that frightens the powers that be --justifiably -- far more than inflation:

Deflation.

Much of the book is taken up with examining the history of the crisis.
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36 of 40 people found the following review helpful
1.0 out of 5 stars you've got to be kidding me March 13, 2012
Format:Kindle Edition
So Dent completely fails with his predictions of the "Great BOOM Ahead" where he called for the Dow to be in the 35,000 range by 2010...so now we're to think he has any clue what he's talking about when he suddenly reverses course with the Dow around 13,000 and predicts the great CRASH ahead? I can't believe anyone is still buying his books.

For the record, if we HAD experienced the great book he predicted and the Dow was around 35,000, it would take a crash of more than 60% just to get down to today's level. So here's a news flash for anyone who would read this book...the crash ALREADY happened. Where the markets go from here is anybody's guess and the author has already shown himself to have no clue.
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40 of 45 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Level-headed approach to the new financial landscape September 20, 2011
By Padman
Format:Hardcover
Dent's predictions may have seemed extreme when he published The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History, but now that we're amid an ongoing debt problem in Europe and at home, coupled with lingering job troubles, and constant worries on other economic fronts, it seems that Dent was right all along. His perspective in this is more of the same--here he warns of a massive correction in the stock market over the course of 2012 and '13, and suggests that investors avoid it during that time and stay with more conservative investments.

Of course, the critic will claim, Dent has made predictions in the past that have not come to pass (didn't he predict a crash in 2010?). But, one might argue that the various mechanisms and boondoggles that the Fed has instituted over those few years have effectively kicked that can down the road. They haven't alleviated the strains of the economy, though, and instead have made the inevitable correction that much worse.

The underlying argument is strong and can be summed up with some of the rhetoric that Dent uses describing the "madness of the Fed." And who can argue that his is the sensible approach? The only question some investors will ask is whether they can profit from the madness a little more while others start to take more caution.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews
4.0 out of 5 stars Four Stars
Haven't read the book yet. Sorry.
Published 3 days ago by Patricia Stevens
2.0 out of 5 stars These books came and were described as new but they ...
These books came and were described as new but they had a black mark on the side of the book pages. Also, there were tags from Half of Books and the last priced sticker was $1. Read more
Published 5 days ago by morrishj
2.0 out of 5 stars Suggestive Gobble de Gook
Just another doom and gloom book that will probably depress you just as it did me. Not a fun subject and very subjective.
Published 10 days ago by RM Sparks
2.0 out of 5 stars The Great Crash? When?
Puts forward an interesting argument, but early 2014 has come and gone and no great crash. I can do a better job of predicting the future.
Published 27 days ago by AZ
5.0 out of 5 stars The Great Crash Ahead
Harry Dent has great insight on the world economies that I do not find in my other readings. A great Read
Published 2 months ago by paul armbruster
5.0 out of 5 stars Gives good head up
Keeping cash ready to buy on future down turn -- the demographic cycle cannot be stopped -- good read and information
Published 3 months ago by LindenRed64
5.0 out of 5 stars Really Good Book.
Spot on. Contains information needed by all Americans. I wish everyone would read it! This is important for all of us.
Published 3 months ago by Marcus Karolina
4.0 out of 5 stars Great Crash Ahead
Good read. Good price and shipped fairly quickly! The author is very knowledgeable and is pretty good at looking at the economics of today and what is ahead.
Published 3 months ago by Lisa
1.0 out of 5 stars Two crushes
Beware! Harry is really predicting two crushes: the Great Crush of 2012-2015 (this book), and the Great Deflation of 2014-2019 caused by the demographic cliff (his new book). Read more
Published 5 months ago by Rufus T. Firefly
4.0 out of 5 stars Dent gets the forecast right
Harry gets the forecast right. Probably more than any other forecaster of our economy, he presents a rational, hard-eyed analysis of the things that drive both the US and global... Read more
Published 8 months ago by Roger Knudsen
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More About the Author

A Harvard MBA, Fortune 100 consultant, new venture investor, noted speaker and bestselling author, Harry S. Dent, Jr. is the founder and senior editor at Dent Research, where he dedicates himself to identifying and studying demographic, technological, and geopolitical trends. He has a free daily newsletter at www.harrydent.com called "Survive and Prosper."
With his track record of accurately predicting Japan's collapse in 1989, the dot-com bubble-bust in 2000 and the housing bust in 2006 to 2007 (among many other things), he has appeared on Good Morning America and PBS, and is a regular guest on CNBC and Fox Business. He's been featured in Barron's, Investor's Business Daily, Business Week, The Wall Street Journal, and American Demographics. And he's written numerous books, including The Great Boom Ahead(1992), The Great Depression Ahead(2008), The Great Crash Ahead(2011) and The Demographic Cliff(2014). www.harrydent.com



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