The Great Reflation: How Investors Can Profit From the New World of Money [Hardcover]

J. Anthony Boeckh (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: May 3, 2010

A guide to understanding and thriving in today's new economic environment

Now that the housing and credit bubbles have burst, toppling banks and sending shockwaves through the stock market and around the world, it may seem like the worst has passed. But the full impact of the crises we have recently faced will create far more problems, and unless you're prepared, you'll struggle to regain your financial footing.

In The Great Reflation, author Tony Boeckh helps you understand how these crises, and the policies passed to jumpstart the economy, will play out for investments and business, and provides you with the tools to excel in today's rapidly evolving financial landscape. He reveals how similar episodes compare with the current crises and what this could mean for your financial future.

• Arms you with practical insights that will allow you to evaluate different investment options
• Explores the implications of the end of the private debt cycle, the possible rise of a new age of thrift, and the new government debt crisis
• Reveals how you can profit from once-in-a-lifetime opportunities as well as proper portfolio allocation strategies

While things may never return to "normal," you can still make choices that will allow you to prosper. This book will show you how.

Editorial Reviews

Review

"Tony Boeckh analyzes clearly the frightening range of factors contributing to the recent financial crisis. If that doesn't make you think carefully, his investment strategies for a world still facing high levels of risk will certainly have you riveted."
—Hon Michael Wilson, Former Ambassador from Canada to the United States; Former Canadian Finance Minister

“The Great Reflation is essential reading for serious, thinking investors everywhere.  Who better than Tony to show us how this will all end, and even more important, how to position our investments and our lives to make sure we not only survive, but prosper.” 
— John Mauldin, Editor, Thoughts from the Frontline; 3 time New York Times Bestselling Author; President, Millennium Wave Investments

“This book is a must read. Tony, from all his years guiding the excellent analytic work of the Bank Credit Analyst presents a realistic outline of the post- crisis world, the many challenges, and the exciting and unpredictable times ahead.”
—Jim O’Neil, Head of Global Economic Research, Goldman Sachs

“The Great Reflation is by far the best economic and investment book which I have read in the last 10 years. He is a seasoned historian, economist, and strategist with a unique ability to explain complex issues in simple, readable terms.”
—Marc Faber, Editor, The Gloom Boom & Doom Report

“This book is written by one of the long-standing and highly recognized veterans in the field of investments.  In highly readable form, it covers important forces influencing investments and a very detailed evaluation of the key sectors of investment opportunities.”
—Henry Kaufman, Henry Kaufman & Company Inc.

“Tony Boeckh is a first rate investment intellect whose work I have read for years, and his thoughts on the crisis are well-worth reading and contemplating.”
— Barton M. Biggs, Managing Partner, Traxis Partners; Author, Hedgehogging and Wealth, War, and Wisdom

"The Great Reflation is part history, part theory, part textbook and part prophesy- lucid, persuasive and a good read. The title says it all. It will have a place on my shelves and I expect many others.”
—Brian Reading, Founder of Lombard Street Research World Service, Former Advisor to UK Treasury and to the Governor of the Bank of England

“Tony pioneered the concept of debt Supercycle in the 1970s and his The Great Reflation has proven that he is the ultimate macro thinker. This book is a must read for all investors who strive for financial success in an extremely risky world.”
— Chen Zhao, Chief Global Strategist and Managing Editor, Bank Credit Analyst Research Group

“Weaving together today's unprecedented  and complex economic, monetary, and investment conditions, Tony lays out the uncomfortable truths that investors must understand and deal with in order to protect capital and invest profitably in the years ahead.”
—Eldon Mayer, Former CEO and CIO of Lynch & Mayer, Inc.; New York-based Institutional Asset Manager

“Few people know as much as Tony Boeckh does about the relationships between the economies and the financial markets. In his book, he gives us a much needed road map on how to invest given the tremendous convulsions we are going through. It is a must read for very investor.”
— Charles Gave, Chairman, GaveKal Research

Product Details

• Hardcover: 336 pages
• Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (May 3, 2010)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0470538775
• ISBN-13: 978-0470538777
• Product Dimensions: 6.4 x 1.1 x 9.4 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (24 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #486,224 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

J. ANTHONY (TONY) BOECKH's economic and financial writings have been widely followed by individual and institutional investors in every major country in the world for over 40 years. He has been referred to as the "expert the experts rely on" by Louis Rukeyser of "Wall Street Week". His analyses and forecasts have been most closely associated with the "Bank Credit Analyst" (BCA), which he developed into its modern form; he was the Chairman, CEO, and Editor-in-Chief of BCA Research Inc. from 1968 to 2002. Under his leadership, BCA grew from a small firm to become one of the world's leading independent investment research companies. He has a PhD in finance and economics from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.

He first gained experience in economic and financial research at Canada's central bank in the early 1960s. He taught economics and finance at McGill University in Montreal, Canada for a number of years. He coauthored "The Stock Market and Inflation", published by Dow Jones-Irwin in 1982.

He was involved in the investment management business as chairman of Greydanus, Boeckh and Associates, a fixed income investment firm, from 1985 to 1999.

Tony has been a longtime supporter of free market economic principles. He is a founding trustee of the Vancouver-based Fraser Institute, an economic think tank dedicated to free market principles.

Currently, he and Ian Boeckh manage Boeckh Investments Inc., a family office and private investment firm specializing in small public companies. Tony has lectured at economic, financial, and investment seminars and conferences around the world, and has been sought after by the media and others for his insights and analysis.

Tony has been a longtime student of investment cycles, financial manias, and crises. The financial crisis of 2008-2009 prompted him to set out his thoughts in "The Great Reflation: How Investors Can Profit from the New World of Money". He also coauthors "The Boeckh Investment Letter" with Robert Boeckh, which is available on the web at www.boeckhinvestmentletter.com. The publication follows the principles outlined in "The Great Reflation" and is focused on helping investors manage their money.

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

55 of 58 people found the following review helpful

4.0 out of 5 stars Complex Subject simplified May 20, 2010

By andre haroche

Format:Kindle Edition|Amazon Verified Purchase

Perhaps my expectations were too high about this book but in short I was a tad let down. As for the positives:
* The book was very clearly written
* Complex topics were explained in the most basic of terms
* The book did an outstanding job of Illustrating the macro monetary situation we are in currently in by examining the recent and current financial situation, the fed's intervention and the like.

The juciest section for me was Section 1 where the Author painted an elaborate and elegant picture as to the situation we are in and how unprecedented it is. Atop of this he covered disciplines that one needs to understand in order to frame the picture that we are now in the midst of: historical contexts, long wave cycles, etc and he also does an excellent job of providing facts and charts which illustrates his points in the clearest of terms. He tends to allude to where things may be headed but never says it outright. So its pretty gripping - and like good Hitchcock movie it feels like foreshadowing of really great things that he will cover later in the book. Bravo for section 1 - get the book for this reason alone.

I was a bit disappointed in the second section - namely the investment section:
* the book did an excellent job of going through the different investment options one may face in the current environment yet I felt it was overly simplistic in some cases -- while the complexity of the first section was closer to what I expected, the investing section felt a bit like a "beginners guide" - perhaps too simplistic.

Finally, I was also disappointed as the book didn't make any predictions. As I said before, the first section felt like he was foreshadowing a story that he would weave together in the final section - telling you what may happening, how to prepare, what to invest in etc. However true to the form of a good economist, the Author did NOT make predictions. This felt a little bit unfulfilling.

Instead he explained where we are and that the data will determine which direction we head (deflation vs inflation) and gave us the tools to understand how we may determine this ourselves over the coming years. No bold conclusions as to what to expect, no intellectual catharsis. It kind of fell flat for me -- as sometimes I am looking for an opinion from a wiser, more experienced Sage -- not just a guidebook as to what to look for in the field.

(But again maybe that was the point of the book -- that there is massive uncertainty out there and there are no guarantees where we are headed following the "great experiment" we have undertaken.)

If the book didnt leave me yearning for an opinion or if it had taught me some new investing angles I would have given it a 5* however. I still would wholeheartedly recommend this book to anyone who is a concerned investor for the first section alone; just dont expect a compass that will tell you what to do. Instead think of it as a field guide for how to think for yourself and make your own predictions. Still a good read.

18 of 21 people found the following review helpful

4.0 out of 5 stars good book May 21, 2010

By Bayview

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase

The author talks about liquidity, credit, banking, economy, asset markets with depth, historical perspective, reason and clarity. He also has a good grasp of politics and how it influencs people's pocket book. The author has a wealth of knowledge and lays it all out in the book in a way that is easy to follow.

The book gives the reader a very good understanding of the big picture and the macro factors that affect it. I learned quite a few things.

The reasons that I can not give it a 5 stars is because

1 There is very limited coverage of equity selection. For example, what type of equities will do better relatively in an inflationary period, or the characteristics of different equities and how to select them. The author talks about equity as a whole and at a high level.

2 The author gives the Federal Reserve too high a grade. His evaluation of the incentives of the Federal Reserve system and the motives of the people running the Federal Reserve is too high and off the mark. He also praised the Fed for saving the world from a total collapse (in 2008-2009), which can never be proved true or imaginary.

Despite these short comings, investors can most likely benefit from this book.

5 of 5 people found the following review helpful

3.0 out of 5 stars buyer beware November 6, 2011

By David

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase

I have read several investment books. This was one of the most exciting, until I discovered that all of the graphs he suggest you use, to track where you are at any time in the business cycle (boom/bust cycle) are unavailable to the average person on Yahoo, MSN, or Bloomberg. Now he conveniently offers a newletter for $2000 per year, so you can get access to this data. If it smells like a duck....