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154 of 170 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Great essay, wish people would read it before reviewing it
Some reviewers have done a good job here, but some have utterly missed major points, if they have read the essay at all, which I doubt, so I will give potential readers an outline.

I. The low-hanging fruit we ate
..A. Examples in the United States
....1. Free land (Homestead Act, etc.)
....2. Technological breakthroughs (electricity, motor...
Published on October 30, 2011 by Chuck Crane

versus
5 of 5 people found the following review helpful
2.0 out of 5 stars Disappointing
While I agree with most of the message, it was a disappointing book in the depth of economic history presented and the analysis. More importantly, there is no good explanation of how the stagnation will eventually be overcome.

At least Cowen acknowledges that we are in a stagnation and that the technologies that contributed to economic growth in the past are...
Published on September 16, 2012 by Paul Moreno


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154 of 170 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Great essay, wish people would read it before reviewing it, October 30, 2011
By 
Chuck Crane (Scottsdale, Arizona) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will(Eventually) Feel Better (Hardcover)
Some reviewers have done a good job here, but some have utterly missed major points, if they have read the essay at all, which I doubt, so I will give potential readers an outline.

I. The low-hanging fruit we ate
..A. Examples in the United States
....1. Free land (Homestead Act, etc.)
....2. Technological breakthroughs (electricity, motor vehicles, telephone, radio, television, computers etc.)
....3. Smart, uneducated kids (who were made productive through excellent public education).
....4. This is a partial list; clearly other candidates can be proposed, e.g. cheap fossil fuels.
..B. Examples in other countries ("catch-up growth")
....1. Leveraging the technological breakthroughs of the West (e.g. China, India)
....2. Smart, uneducated kids (e.g. China, India)
..C. MEDIAN income growth in the U.S. has slowed notably since 1973.
....1. Decline in household size is not the cause.
....2. Unmeasured quality improvements (think electronic gadgetry) are not a counter (because there is
...... also unmeasured quality degradation, think traffic jams and AIDS)
..D. Rate of technical innovation has declined notably since 1873 and even more since 1955
....1. Innovation is getting harder; the low fruit has been picked.
....2. Recent innovations have slight marginal benefits
..E. Recent and current innovation is more geared to PRIVATE goods than to PUBLIC goods.
....**This is the driver of the Great Stagnation.
....1. Extracting resources from the government (subsidies for solar power, farm products, other junk;
.....useless construction; useless government employees; legal services, etc.) by lobbying.
....2. Extreme protections of intellectual property (e.g. by ridiculous patent laws that grant monopolies for
...... incandescently obvious ideas, enabled by our retarded judiciary)
....3. Recent financial innovations (CDO's, derivatives, etc.) that benefit Wall Street at public expense.
....4. THESE ALL RESULT IN INCREASED INCOME INEQUALITY.

II. Our New (not so productive) Economy
..A. Most recent productivity gains in the private sector have been achieved by cutting out dead wood
....("discovering who isn't doing much and firing them").
..B. GDP statistics are flawed because they value expenditure at cost; actual value of the expenditure is
.... unknown in sectors where market forces do not operate.
..C. Underperforming sectors where valuation at cost is a big problem:
....1. Government.
......a. The marginal value of government, even if positive, falls as government grows larger.
........(1) Basic expenditures deliver high value. e.g. police, basic infrastructure, national security)
........(2) Ancillary expenditures deliver less value (e.g. bridges to nowhere, urban renewal boondoggles,
......... salaries for school administrators and federal drones
......b. Because government contribution to GDP is valued at cost, the larger the government grows,
........ the more GDP growth and living standards are overstated.
....2. Health care
......a. No bloody clue what things are actually worth; they are valued at cost.
......b. America currently spends 17% of GDP on health care, with outcomes worse than countries
....... that spend far less.
......c. Disproportionate spending on end care for the elderly.
......d. David Cutler's study: health care productivity growth 1995-2005 was negative.
....3. Education
......a. 6% of GDP at present.
......b. No improvements in student reading or math performance since mid 70's.
......c. But we are spending (constant dollars) twice a much now per student as we did then.
......d. High school graduation rate peaked at 80% in late 60's.
......e. Government claims of 88% graduation rate are nonsense.
......f. 20% of all new high school credentials each year come from passing equivalency tests.
..D. INNOVATION MUST OCCUR IN THESE UNDER-PERFORMING SECTORS
... This is where Cowan fails to state solutions clearly, which may disappoint readers, but his point is that
... these are areas where innovative thinking is required and good solutions need to be developed. My summary
... and suggestions:
....1. "If you can't measure it, you can't manage it." Use market approaches, intelligently ascertain value by
..... other means, and if measurement fails, arbitrarily force cuts in low-performing sectors (as a last resort).
....2. Government: 10% staff cuts. Strict spending limits pegged to per-capita government spending during a
.... benchmark period.
....3. Education: Standardized tests, charter schools, e-learning, vouchers (all of course resisted by the
..... education lobby).
....4. Health care: determine what works and pay only for that. Extending the life of an 90-year-old terminally
..... ill person for one month at a cost of $200,000 is not something that works.

III. Does the Internet Change Everything?
..A. Similar to early years of industrial revolution (advances made by amateurs)
..B. Hard to measure its productivity because its value lies largely in the mental dimension; most stuff on the
... internet is free.
....1. Traditional activity does occur (advertising, sale of goods). eBay, Amazon, Craigslist, ads on Google.
....2. While a public good, benefits of the Internet skewed to the intellectually curious.
....3. GDP is understated to extent it does not include the value of free internet pleasures.
..C. As an innovation, the internet has generated few jobs and revenue, compared to earlier innovations.
... (Example: Google employs 20,000, Twitter 300)
..D. Internet has also destroyed jobs in the music industry, book stores, and other forms of entertainment.
..E. So we're getting away from materialism, but it really hurts and people are yelping about it.

IV. The Government of Low-hanging Fruit
..A. Days of government largess are past; we can't slop the public trough like we used to.
..B. We won't be getting real income growth of 2% to 3%. We'll be lucky with 1%.
..C. Tax cuts without spending cuts (right wing approach) are untenable in the long term.
..D. Taking from the rich is also untenable in the long term; top 5% already pays for 43% of the federal
... government; top 1% for 27%.
..E. As real growth stagnates, demands from interest groups (corporations for tax breaks, K-12 teachers for job
... security, medical device makers for Medicare payments, public employees for pensions) will grow more
... strident. Expect more vociferous arguments about how to divide up the stagnant pie.
..F. Because government cannot continue to grow under current conditions, Liberals have become the new
... conservatives, supporting the status quo of handouts, bribes, and squandering.

V. Why did we have such a big financial crisis?
..A. Eight words: "WE THOUGHT WE WERE RICHER THAN WE WERE".
....1. We made plans expecting continued 3% productivity growth and the asset prices such growth would bring.
....2. We were lulled by successful handling of prior crises (e.g. the S&L bust and real estate bubble in the
..... 80's) into believing all risk could be managed effectively.
....3. Overconfidence was the problem. For everyone. Borrowers, investors, bankers, politicians, regulators.
..B. Markets and government failed miserably in estimating risk.
..C. Government encouraged risk by taking by overlooking accounting scandals (Freddie and Fannie) and promoting
... home ownership for everybody.
..D. Short-term response to stagnant incomes was to borrow against appreciated assets (home equity loans,
... mortgage refis), foolishly expecting continued asset appreciation. From 1993 through 2005,
... homeowners extracted equity equal to 11.5% of GDP.
..E. Fiscal stimulus in 2009 was inadequate, but a larger stimulus would not have helped. Problem is not lack of
... aggregate demand, but lack of revenue-generating innovation.
..F. Replacing private debt with public debt solves nothing. Sooner or later you have to pay the piper.
..G. The internet, by giving people much to do for free, may be exacerbating the current stagnation.

VI. Can we fix things?
..A. Promote favorable trends
....1. India and China
......a. Science and engineering interest in India and China: should yield innovations we can exploit.
......b. Offloading unskilled labor abroad gives us more time to pursue innovation (if we are smart enough).
......c. Consumers in China and India can offer a market for our innovations.
....2. Internet may do more for revenue generation in the future
......a. Promotes scientific learning and makes science more of a meritocracy; ideas rapidly shared and improved.
........ (Archaic intellectual property laws will need to change if we are to take advantage of this)
......b. Promotes self-education; a lot better than watching TV.
......c. These should all yield productivity gains.
....3. Improvements in K-12 education
......a. Majority of electorate no longer sides with education lobby.
......b. School choice, charter schools, incentives, better monitoring are now in favor.
....4. Raise the social status of scientists
......a. Science is what fuels economic growth, yet we reward law, medicine, and finance.
......b. [Aside: this is not the case in China and India, where engineers and scientists are more highly
....... esteemed, and occupy the highest offices in government. Here, we have poli sci graduates running things.]
......c. Culture of science is what drove the industrial revolution.
......d. We should not trust individual scientists uncritically, but we should respect science at the higher
....... level (a lot more than law or finance)
..B. Avoid unfavorable trends
....1. Cool the rhetoric, avoid useless strife.
....2. Stick to facts. Educate yourself. Don't demonize those you disagree with.
....3. A prolonged period of slow growth need not be bad -- Japan has tolerated it very well.
..C. Final Word
....1. The next low-hanging fruit may pose dangers. Be vigilant and quick to respond.
....2. Axis and Communist powers turned new technologies to destructive and oppressive ends.
....3. Balance of power can be upset.
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5 of 5 people found the following review helpful
2.0 out of 5 stars Disappointing, September 16, 2012
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This review is from: The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will(Eventually) Feel Better (Hardcover)
While I agree with most of the message, it was a disappointing book in the depth of economic history presented and the analysis. More importantly, there is no good explanation of how the stagnation will eventually be overcome.

At least Cowen acknowledges that we are in a stagnation and that the technologies that contributed to economic growth in the past are subject to diminishing returns. The productivity slowdown dates to the early 1970s and is well known to economists. (See the works of Denison, Robert J. Gordon and Alexander Field and Robert Ayres)

Books that anticipated the stagnation were Turning Point by Robert Ayres and The Evolution of Progress by C. Owen Paepke, both excellent. The End of Work by Jeremy Rifkin is also recommended. Perhaps the best economic explanation is by Gordon Bjork in The Way It Worked and Why It Won't: Structural Change and the Slowdown of U.S. Economic Growth. Bjork shows how structural change in the size of economic sectors affected productivity and economic growth. In the transition from agriculture to manufacturing, workers moved to a higher output per hour, high productivity growth sector. As productivity in manufacturing succeeded in lowering prices and employment, shrinking the relative sector size. The growing sectors of government and services are lower output per hour and lower productivity growth.
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5 of 5 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars Tyler Cowen brings a fresh perspective to economic slowdown in an easy-read text, October 17, 2011
This review is from: The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will(Eventually) Feel Better (Hardcover)
Tyler Cowen's `The Great Stagnation' is less a full-length book than an extended essay which attempts to explain current economic and median-income stagnation in the USA, and what might happen in the future. The author's basic idea is that between 1880 and 1970 the USA benefited from an abundance of `low-hanging fruit': almost limitless land resources relative to population; technological breakthroughs like electricity, indoor plumbing, railroads, automobiles, radio, telephones, tape recorders, mass production and the availability of reliably tested pharmaceuticals; and a continuous supply of first-generation immigrant labor to do all the hard jobs at low rates of pay. This party is now over, and the hangover has set in.

Cowen's analysis of historical trends in technological innovation reveals a plateau since the 1970s in the adoption and wide dissemination of useful new technologies: i.e. like in the 1970s we still drive cars powered by gasoline, and use refrigerators and TVs; they're just incrementally improved but not radically different in concept. Now they're made elsewhere in the world by newly industrialised economies which have imitated the industrial practices of the US and Europe, and are imported rather than home-produced. The newer technologies like the internet and cell phones are for communications, and don't need a lot of workers to run them.

The author goes on to analyse the incremental value of increasing spend on education, which he sees as offering diminishing economic returns, and writes an excellent section analysing healthcare spending - again, beyond a certain point doubling spending offers smaller and smaller incremental returns in health benefits. Cowen uses a graph to demonstrate that although every major European country has a total healthcare expenditure per capita of less than half that of the USA, they all have longer life-expectancy and lower infant mortality - so it's not to do with money per se, but how things are done and how the money is used.

The author's fix-it ideas include raising the social esteem in which scientists are held: well, amen to that, but is that really going to make a big difference? The biggest earners in the USA are now in the financial sector. Trading credit default swaps, derivatives and securitised financial products may enrich the tiny part of the workforce concerned with such chimera, but they tend to relatively impoverish everyone else and do not spread wealth around as in the industrial age, when millions of people were employed in designing and making real, useful things which improved people's lives and which everybody wanted. Cowen predicts we might be in for a longer and deeper economic recession before new scientific innovations can renew society again, and that the rate of progress will remain uneven and people might "look back to the current era with a gloss of nostalgia" - hardly an optimistic prognosis.

The text of this hardcover was originally an e-book, printed to take in new audiences and offer a more permanent artefact than an online blog. Despite its shortcomings its 89 pages present punchy, lucid arguments and make for an easy read of a few hours, brevity and clarity among its chief recommendations.
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4 of 5 people found the following review helpful
2.0 out of 5 stars Where's my teleporter?, October 19, 2012
By 
ThomasW (Longmont, CO USA) - See all my reviews
This review is from: The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will(Eventually) Feel Better (Hardcover)
In essence, Mr. Cowen is arguing that the technological change has slowed down and living standards aren't increasing as fast as they used to. Great new technologies like railroads and the automobile were introduced in the 19th century and first half of the 20th century, but since then we've only gotten improvements to existing technologies. Mr. Cowen seems to think that if technological change had continued we would see aircars (ala the old cartoon The Jetsons), jetpacks, and teleportation machines. Instead we have larger refrigerators.

This is contrary to most accounts that we live in a period of rapid technological change. Computers and electronic products are sold for under a year before an improved model is available, where in the past products would have multi-year lifetimes. But I'm not sure of Mr. Cowen's opinion of computers and electronics, the only technological advance since 1970 he mentions is the internet (which uses computers but is not the same thing).

Talking about the internet, Mr. Cowen abandons any argument about technological change, and instead complains that it's mostly free and doesn't employ enough people, thus not contributing to GDP. Everyplace else in the book he talks about changes in technology and living standards, but for the internet it's the lack of jobs.

The rest of the book is similarly confused. While there are some good points in the book, it really seems to be a complaint that many of the technologies envisioned by science fiction, which some "experts" have predicted would arrive soon, are not here today.
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3 of 4 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars Good Points, but Also Important Omissions, March 6, 2014
This review is from: The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will(Eventually) Feel Better (Hardcover)
Cowen helps put our current economic malaise in perspective, pointing out that our really good years are behind us because their major underlying contributors are 'used up.' These include the benefits of free land (Homestead Act) that helped make America a strong exporter of food, important innovations (electricity, refrigerators, cars, phones, TVs, radios) that have made important contributions to most every American's life, going from smart but uneducated children to a nation that led the world in universal education, and readily available energy resources. Those new opportunities and resulting growth are mostly gone - now its minor refinements (eg. 4G cellphones, iPods, eBay).

Cowen also reports on the now rapid growth in areas that are not providing a basis for future growth or improving standards of living. For example, K-12 per-pupil inflation-adjusted spending has increased 250% since 1970, while pupil outcomes (NAEP 17-year-olds, dropout rates) are unchanged). College costs have risen even faster - yet students study less than in the 1960s and employers constantly complain of inadequate preparation. Worst of all - American healthcare leads the world in spending (18% of GDP, up from about 8% in the late 1960s) but we trail other nations in many key areas of patient outcomes (eg. life expectancy, neonatal deaths, etc.).

On the down side, Cohen omits five additional important factors - some negative and some positive. After WWII the U.S. was the only developed nation that emerged unscathed, and thus became an export powerhouse. Since then other nations have rebuilt (U.K., Germany, Japan) or developed (South Korea, China, Taiwan, Mexico) and are now decimating America via 'Free Trade.' Exporting jobs is now extending to the service sector - the most obvious source being India for software development, call-center services, and now pharmaceutical R&D. The Internet is also making strong inroads into bricks and mortar retailing, and now we're seeing Radio Shack and Staples reducing their store count as a result, while Borders and Circuit City have recently disappeared. Another - the 12+ million illegals living within the U.S. and, along with the children of illegals, are taking millions of jobs from Americans. The last factor - increasing automation, with robots becoming cheaper, more versatile, and easier to program, and cheap software displacing the need for eg. CPAs doing taxes, financial reporting, etc.

Bottom-Line: Wall Street is making money hand over fist by outsourcing, downsizing, automating, and hiring illegals. Just don't look for the return of boom years on Main Street anytime soon, if ever.
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8 of 11 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars Lacks Balance and Tells 1/2 of the Tale, September 6, 2011
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This review is from: The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will(Eventually) Feel Better (Hardcover)
This book provides some insight into our current economic situation; however, I found it lacking in some of the most important points. It also seems to be an apologia for the current situation which frames our lack of economic progress in terms of "natural forces" instead of conscious human management decisions. Certainly it is true that the United States was blessed with a considerable amount of "free land" and natural resources; however, so was the former Soviet Union. Politics and good governance do matter and this book touches on none of that. Rather there are hints that the author is not revealing his full spectrum of belief but rather simply focusing on an environment which though true nevertheless in incompletely described.

For example, the author contends that we are suffering from a period in which there is a lack of innovation and that having picked the low hanging fruit we must await a new harvest. This is nonsense. Since the author appears to be an internet savvy person where has he been the last decade? More importantly where does he come off with support for his contention that we on a plateau? Go to the following and read the daily output from this site: [...]. Very significant theoretical and practical discoveries are being made daily. If anything the pace of innovation is accelerating and not stagnating. The problem is that this new knowledge is not bearing fruit here in the United States. For example, Applied Materials is the major manufacturer of the sophisticated tools for the manufacture of solar panels, flat panel televisions and other electronic devices. They have recently invested heavily in China. [...] [...]

The more cynical part of me believes this is simply a rather poor attempt to provide plausible arguments for our current situation without examining the full scope of the issue. For example, many of our brightest minds in physics and mathematics are not employed in the pursuit of creating better manufacturing processes and tools but rather ever more arcane algorithms for the support of so-called "financial instruments." Other nation states are making the investment in the future. China certainly is investing heavily in alternative energy. Even "old Europe" is making investments. [...]. Indeed the entire Bushian mythology of "old Europe" is fatally flawed and serves the interests of a failing US status quo.

This is a book worth reading but not staking your life on. It is decidely incomplete in its analyses and should simply be viewed as a relatively small piece of a much larger puzzle. The point which is missed entirely: The future is unfolding - it is just not being led by the United States. That is a failure of good governance and management not a failure of innovation or knowledge.
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars An agglomeration of blogging, May 17, 2014
This review is from: The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will(Eventually) Feel Better (Hardcover)
For active followers of MarginalRevolution.com, this book is unnecessary. The book is a jumbled collation of bloggish thoughts.
Cowen's thoughts on marginal productivity of inventions are not new, but remain worthwhile.
There is an odd proclivity towards un-argued libertarianism/Randism that is unlike Cowen.
The discussion of tradeable sector productivity is excellent.
The book desperately needs to complete the jobless-recovery thinking in a post-explanation manner: cleverness without policy advice is useless.
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars Good observations, simple analysis, September 25, 2012
This review is from: The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will(Eventually) Feel Better (Hardcover)
This little book contains some very good observations, albeit with fairly simple economic analysis, once we get past the overused metaphor of having picked the low hanging fruit. In my opinion an anchor around the neck of American labor is more descriptive. Having picked low overhanging fruit has probably been a truism for at least fifty years. Our ineffective response is a more useful study.

Productivity and national income are not reliable indicators. Health care and education are overestimated in quality as well as results. Pointing to growing government bureaucracy is old news but an especially interesting observation is that the Internet providing a degree of happiness making it unnecessary to spend money contributing to lack of consumption and demand. That's a new perspective to consider. It seems very prescient.

Recent financial crisis is characterized by "We thought we were richer than we were." Not wrong, but older than the crisis and the syndrome continues. When Cowen says that the crisis is not about a RE bubble or banks, that's also true but misses the flood of government money in the name of the great American dream of home ownership.

In a back cover review David Brooks says that Cowen makes clear that technological advances are producing happiness with little economic activity. Actually, Cowen in his conclusion wishes for better. In the "Can we fix things?" section the author recommends "Raise the social status of scientist." It's not exactly wrong, but hardly a panacea. It reflects the popular recommendations on teachers. Cowen neglects declining ability to capitalize on innovation. Expecting either innovation or education to result in economic improvement is wishful thinking. "We will eventually feel better" is the least convincing part of the book.

This is a quick read worth the time to think about it.
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Quick Read, May 7, 2012
This review is from: The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will(Eventually) Feel Better (Hardcover)
Tyler Cowen is great! This was a great and short read. Very informative. Everybody should read it, especially since you can do it over the weekend.
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars Interesting analysis, great form factor, December 24, 2011
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This review is from: The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will(Eventually) Feel Better (Hardcover)
For once, we see a 100 page, tiny book filled with ideas instead of the same ideas stretched into 300 pages of repetition. Kudos to Cowen. Interesting set of ideas, described well by other reviewers. It would have been useful to add a scientific chapter about how some of the specific low hanging fruit has been eaten. Specifically, new materials (advanced steel, aluminum, plastic) had a huge impact from 1900 to 1970, but there is very little improvement left in the periodic table, fundamentally limiting new materials going forward. Likewise switching from coal to oil had a huge GDP impact, and there aren't really any more energy dense fuels than oil.

Nonetheless, an excellent, quick read.
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