The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President [Hardcover]

Allan J. Lichtman (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: February 22, 2008 | ISBN-10: 0742562697 | ISBN-13: 978-0742562691 | Edition: 2008 Edition

With The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book, prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or 'keys' (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860--including the 2000 election where Al Gore was predicted to and did indeed win the popular vote, and the 2004 contest for Bush's reelection--Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. Scholars of the electoral process, their students, and general readers who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2008 should not miss this book.

Editorial Reviews

Review

Do me a favor. Don't read this book. Because if you do, it could put all of us pundits and political consultants out of business. Allan Lichtman has some nerve, revealing our trade secrets to the great unwashed public. Including the biggest secret of all, which is that the presidential vote is simple, rational, and highly predictable. (Schneider, William )

Allan Lichtman's Keys to the White House serves as an important reminder to all of us, professional political analysts and interested citizens and observers alike, that fundamentals matter. Presidential elections are not personality contests or astrological events. Rational forces drive presidential election outcomes and nobody does a better job of making that case than Lichtman does. If you want to have the best chance of figuring out which side will win in November 2008, there is no better book to read. (Charlie Cook )

Of the hundreds of books written about presidential elections, one of the best is Allan J. Lichtman's The Keys to the White House.>>>>

Overall, the 2008 edition that applies the keys to the 2008 presidential election is a useful update that will interest readers broadly. (Political Science Quarterly )

For generations, politicians, pundits, and poll-takers have been seeking their version of the Holy Grail--a surefire, guaranteed way to predict presidential elections well ahead of time. It may have been found in this book. (David Broder )

Of the hundreds of books written about presidential elections, one of the best is Allan J. Lichtman's The Keys to the White House.

About the Author

Allan J. Lichtman is professor of American history at American University.

Product Details

• Hardcover: 216 pages
• Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers; 2008 Edition edition (February 22, 2008)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0742562697
• ISBN-13: 978-0742562691
• Product Dimensions: 6.3 x 0.8 x 9.4 inches
• Shipping Weight: 8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (8 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,526,469 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Most Helpful Customer Reviews

16 of 19 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Entertainingly written, based on solid science February 1, 2004

By Doug Samuelson

Format:Textbook Binding

The casual reader might not realize it, but this book is a significant piece of social science. Lichtman and Soviet seismologist (!) Volodia Keilis-Borok threw about 300 variables into a computer and let it find the ones that differentiate between popular-vote winners and losers in every Presidential election from 1860 through 1980. (For those few who would know and care, they used what is known in the English-language literature as kernel discriminant function analysis.) The model produced correct calls in the elections since. This is remarkable. 1988 and 1992 were not easy, as the polls changed dramatically during the campaigns. In 2000, only two sources called Gore's popular-vote win: the last Zogby poll before the election, and the 13 Keys nearly a year in advance! Many political scientists, pundits, and commentators are unhappy with this model, since it implies that much of the ideology, campaign strategy and tactics, image polishing, etc. they care so much about don't really affect the outcome: it's about governance, not campaigning. Ignore their howls of protest. The model works, and Lichtman has explained it well, in easily readable style.

13 of 16 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars The Keys to the White House--A Surefire Winner April 5, 2000

By Tim Stout

Format:Hardcover

Is it possible to have a system of predicting the election of a president, months or even years before Election Day? According to one political historian, yes, there is a way. In fact, it's a "guaranteed" prediction. Historian Allan J. Lichtman has devised a system of thirteen keys that predicts the outcome of elections. The Keys consider such things as the economy, social unrest, scandal, candidate charisma, etc. Since 1981, his forecasting system has never been wrong and, when applied retroactively, they correctly pick every presidential election since the Civil War. Lichtman's book, The Keys to the White House -- 1996 is an important historical/political work. Rather than an over reliance on economic theory, which basically says that if the economy is strong the incumbent wins reelection, Lichtman's keys are historically based, not based solely on the economy or on polls or campaign strategy. The turning of a key is based on historical precedent from past elections. Readers interested in presidential election theory will find Lichtman's book fascinating. According to the book, if the incumbent holds 8 of the 13 keys they will win, regardless of what polls or pundits say. In fact, Lichtman is basically saying that campaigns don't really matter, it's what happens before the campaign that counts. Readers looking for other works related to this topic should read Forecasting Elections by Michael Lewis Beck and Tom Rice or Forecasting Presidential Elections by Steven Rosenstone. The Keys is a must read for anyone interested in political history. Are you trying to predict who will win in 2000? - the Keys will tell you. Only time will tell whether The Keys to the White House is a surefire guide to predicting the next president, but so far, they have a perfect record.

7 of 8 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars It's running the country that counts, not the campaign August 28, 2000

By Dan Hartung

Format:Textbook Binding

Lichtman provides, with the Keys to the White House forecasting system, a novel approach to the obscure academic exercise of predicting presidential elections. Ignoring the polls, working sometimes years in advance, it's possible to determine whether the party in the White House will hold or lose it in the coming election. Lichtman achieves this by developing his theory of governance into a set of thirteen "keys" or key factors that will determine the upcoming contest. From the ease of the governing party's primary campaign, to the pulse of the economy, to the foreign policy failures and successes, he applies an historian's eye to current events and lines up the keys. While the system is certainly open to debate, particularly on some of the more subjective keys, the more important point is what it tells us about how and why we choose our presidents. Some of the answers that the keys suggest are surprising. Certainly, the theory of governance diminishes the importance of the media blitz, the opinion poll, and the rough and tumble of everyday politics -- and some political junkies may not like that. But the message of performance is intriguing and should offer new insights to even the most jaded policy wonk.