By Mohamed Elshinnawi
Washington, DC
The author of this book says the U.S. president will need to pay close attention to the volatile political situation in Egypt, one of America's strongest and most important allies in the Middle East. The author believes U.S. policymakers now face a difficult choice: continuing to support the iron-fisted rule of Egypt's current president and his likely hand-picked successor, or backing a beleaguered democratic opposition that some believe could open the door to Islamic fundamentalist rule.
In his new book, The Last Pharaoh: Mubarak and the Uncertain Future of Egypt in the Obama Age, Egyptian-American writer Aladdin Elaasar offers the American president his blunt assessment of Egypt's near-term outlook. Elaasar believes President Hosni Mubarak, America's "strong man" in Egypt and the recipient of billions of dollars in U.S. military and development aid, is losing his grip on power after 26 years of autocratic rule.
The author believes there are many signs that time is running out for Mubarak, who succeeded President Anwar Sadat after the 1981 assassination and who won a controversial multi-party election to a six-year term in 2005. Elaasar says Egypt's severe economic problems are just one sign that Mubarak's grip on power is loosening. "There is about 37% un-employment in Egypt," Elaasar notes. "There is about 2% to 5% of the people who monopolize the economy and these people are elites around Mubarak and his party. And there is at least 40% of the people in Egypt who live under the poverty line. So there are a lot of indications of social ailments and illnesses and we need to pay attention to that."
Elaasar cites the Mubarak government's well-documented use of repression and police-state tactics to intimidate or silence its political opponents. Those tactics earned Mubarak strong rebukes from the U.S. and other countries following the 2005 presidential election, which critics claim was massively rigged to ensure a Mubarak victory. And Elaasar sees a rising tide of popular frustration and dissatisfaction with Mubarak that encompasses labor unions, teachers, lawyers, judges and youth throughout the country.
Elaasar says the situation in Egypt today reminds him of Iran just before the 1979 overthrow of the Shah by Islamic fundamentalists. "Mubarak reminds me of the last days of the Shah," the author says. "He was living a life of extravagance and surrounded by his elites. He was so oppressive. And that paved the way for the extreme right to come in. And we know the rest of the story."
In The Last Pharaoh, Elaasar writes that the American president can expect one of several difficult scenarios to unfold in Egypt in the months ahead. "The Mubarak regime is preparing itself for the next step," the author explains, "which is making his son, Gamal Mubarak, to be the next president of Egypt. But the other scenario that can play out is that there are other political powers, so it could be the extreme religious right that can take over, or things can get out of control because of the poverty level and the suffering of the Egyptian people, so the people in the street can do something when things reach a very desperate level."
Author Alaadin Elaasar urges the American president to shift U.S. policies on Egypt toward strategies that promote democracy in the country."We really need to make sure that there would be democracy and change," Elaasar warns, "because if this does not start, people reach the extent of desperateness. And then desperateness breathes out all kinds of violence and all kinds of extremism that opens the door for extremists to jump in and pretend they have the solution."
The author says the worst-case scenario in Egypt would be a military coup, which would turn Egypt into what he describes as a "God-knows-what" regime.
Whatever the fate of the Mubarak regime, author Alaadin Elaasar believes significant change in Egypt's government will have profound effects on the region, and on U.S. interests in the Middle East. For that reason, he believes, the U.S. President will need to follow developments in this Arab nation with a watchful and wary eye.
