The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future [Paperback]

Martin Ford (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: September 22, 2009

What will the economy of the future look like? Where will advancing technology, job automation, outsourcing and globalization lead? This groundbreaking book by a Silicon Valley computer engineer explores these questions and shows how accelerating technology is likely to have a highly disruptive influence on our economy in the near future--and may well already be a significant factor in the current global crisis. THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL employs a powerful thought experiment to explore the economy of the future. An imaginary "tunnel of lights" is used to visualize the economic implications of the new technologies that are likely to appear in the coming years and decades. The book directly challenges conventional views of the future and illuminates the danger that lies ahead if we do not plan for the impact of rapidly advancing technology. It also shows how the economic realities of the future might offer solutions to issues such as poverty and climate change.

Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher

THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL takes an in depth look at current trends in information technology and globalization and examines what the likely economic impact will be in the coming years and decades.

Here are just a few of the questions explored in the book:

How will job automation impact the economy in the future?

How will the offshore outsourcing trend evolve in the coming years?

What impact will technologies such as robotics and artificial intelligence have on the job market?

Did technology play a significant role in the 2007 subprime meltdown and the subsequent global financial crisis and recession?

Globalization. Collaboration. Telecommuting. Are these the forces that will shape the workplaces of the future? Or is there something bigger lurking?

How fast can we expect technological change to occur in the coming years and decades?

Which jobs and industries are likely to be most vulnerable to automation and outsourcing?

Machine and computer automation will primarily impact low skilled and low paid workers. True or false?

Will advancing technology always make society as a whole more wealthy? Or could it someday cause a severe economic depression?

What are the implications of advancing automation technology for developing nations such as China and India?

Will a college education continue to be a good bet in the future?

Recent economic data suggests that, in United States, we are seeing increasing income inequality and a dwindling middle class. How will this trend play out in the future?

What will be the economic impact of truly advanced future technologies, such as nanotechnology?

Retail positions at Wal-Mart and other chain stores have become the jobs of last resort for many workers. Will robots and other forms of machine automation someday threaten these jobs? If so, what alternatives will the economy create for these workers?

And much more...

About the Author

MARTIN FORD is the founder of a Silicon Valley-based software firm. He has over twenty-five years experience in the fields of computer design and software development. He holds a computer engineering degree from the University of Michigan and a graduate business degree from the University of California, Los Angeles.

Product Details

• Paperback: 262 pages
• Publisher: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform (September 22, 2009)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1448659817
• ISBN-13: 978-1448659814
• Product Dimensions: 8 x 5.2 x 0.6 inches
• Shipping Weight: 11.2 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (118 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #55,731 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Martin Ford is the founder of a Silicon Valley-based software development firm. He has over 25 years experience in the fields of computer design and software development. He holds a degree in computer engineering from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor and a graduate degree in business from the Anderson Graduate School of Management at the University of California, Los Angeles.

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

210 of 221 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Clear, concise, and compelling October 13, 2010

By Andrew Percey

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Other reviewers have summarized the book in detail, so I won't. I'll just emphasize the bottom line:

Machines are fast approaching humans in terms of *mental* labor capacity, not just *physical* labor capacity. In the past as machines took over much of our physical labor, we were then free to turn to more valuable mental labor. But once machines take over much of our mental labor, then what do we turn to for employment?

The author makes a very compelling case that this situation will arise, and likely within the next few decades. And he also lays out some rather bold suggestions to delay the shock of the resulting high unemployment and allow us to transition to an inevitably new type of economy as smoothly as possible. Though, even with these suggestions, I expect this transition is not likely to be smooth.

This book is a very important, frank discussion of a pending time-bomb for our precious mass market economy. Read it and recommend it to others. And think about how you and your family and friends will manage the forthcoming transition.

199 of 210 people found the following review helpful

3.0 out of 5 stars A serious and growing problem with few easy solutions September 14, 2011

By John K. Hawley

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Martin Ford's book, The Lights in the Tunnel, is one of the latest in a progression of books addressing the economic and social problems partially attributable to rapidly advancing technology. I think his problem analysis is spot on. However, I think his proposed solutions are impractical and probably unworkable. The allocation (or misallocation) of wealth created by the prevailing economic system is an historical problem, one that is being exacerbated by the growing skill-bias of technology. But I can't imagine that any non-market-based wealth allocation scheme developed and administered by government would end up being other than a welfare program or a mechanism for rewarding political "favorites." Politics and cronyism would replace merit and effort. Government can't escape the specter of politics. Like it or not, the market imposes a reality and discipline that is simply not present in most government decision making.
All of the above said, the economic and resultant social problems associated with the increasing skill-bias of technology are serious and not likely to be a temporary phenomenon. Moreover, I don't believe that solutions will be easy to develop or implement. In my line of work (a psychologist working systems acquisition for the US Department of Defense), we began to encounter this problem more than 30 years ago with the widespread introduction of information technology into military systems. Back in those days, we referred to it as "skill creep," and understood that it had significant design, aptitude, and training implications. What came in on cat's paws back in the 1970s is now becoming a perfect storm across the economic spectrum. I should also note that in spite of 30 years of experience with it, DoD still struggles to cope with the skill-bias effect.
Based on 30 years of hands-on experience with this issue, I don't think the end result will be as extreme as Ford suggests in his book. Technology-dominated, "smart" machines will still require human support--and for the foreseeable future, "guidance." However, fewer people will be required to fill this role, and their aptitude, educational, and training requirements will be high. This is the essence of the skill-bias problem. More and more people will be displaced from the traditional job ladder and find themselves either unable to get on or only able to get on at a lower level in so-called service industries. Many proposed solutions will run up against what might be called the bell-curve problem (mental ability is not evenly distributed in the population); and serious, across-the-board educational reform will be a necessity. Most current proposals for educational reform do not fit my definition of serious. It should also be noted that most of our efforts in the area of job "retraining" have not been particularly successful. Many of the things we are going to be required to do to manage this problem will not be politically correct or will not fit into our prevailing political and social worldview.
I agree with Ford that current trends in job off-shoring likely are a temporary expedient. China, India, and other low-cost countries eventually will face the many of the same issues we in the developed world now face. It will be interesting to see how China fares in its Red Queen race between economic growth and the rising expectations of the hundreds of millions of non-participants in its economic miracle.

61 of 64 people found the following review helpful

4.0 out of 5 stars Someday never comes...until it does. August 16, 2011

By Gregory A. Bonadies

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Someday, we will need to understand and deal with the fact that human labor will become increasing superfluous in the functioning of the global economy. The Creedance Clearwater Revival song "Someday Never Comes" counters the notion that understanding or grasping reality somehow can be deferred rather than by confronting the signs and signals of that inevitable future evident in the present. The seeds and roots of a radically different form of economy have been germinating and growing in humanity's inexorable drive to leverage and exploit increasingly advanced technology.

Martin Ford's primary thesis in his brave and thought-provoking work "The Lights in the Tunnel" confronts us with the prospect of the disruptive impact of rapidly advancing technology which will eventually obviate the market-based economic system. In a market economy, the product market/factor market cycle flows goods and services from firms to workers' households in exchange for workers' labor at those same firms. Ford challenges the "conventional wisdom of economists" that product markets will continue to expand, that technology will continuously drive down prices, and he presents a solid case for the advent of an economy characterized by systemic unemployment (some signs of which are already apparent in the economy of the early 21st century). Off-shoring and automation will continue, but at some "tipping point," technology and machines will become sophisticated enough that the need for human labor will diminish - rapidly and with severe consequences for our market economy and the principles upon which it is founded.

While Ford presents a compelling case for his thesis, his valiant attempt at offering potential solutions finds itself on less solid foundations as a consequence of appeal to somewhat idealistic assumptions and questionable premises. Massive changes in the current tax structure including progressive wage deductions and consumption taxes seem reasonable to consider but some of the proposed redistribution schemes may be counterproductive. The notion of representative government is attacked in the section "Defeating the Lobbyists" where Ford suggests that Congress delegate its Constitutional authority to legislate tax policy to "a board of highly skilled professionals" that are "removed from the political process" (147). So we are to remove responsibility from our elected, accountable (by the electoral process) representatives and hand over decision-making for restructuring the economy to a small cadre of "we-know-what's-best-for-you" elites. The justification for this change is that we Americans, as a rule, do not "...have the time, energy or attention span to take an active interest in the intricate and mundane details of the legislative process" (ibid). Unless lobbyist influence is removed, there will be "dramatically reduced opportunities for the type of behind the scenes bargaining and compromise that was once an integral part of the political process" (ibid)! Brings to mind the "behind the scenes bargaining and compromise" that led to passage of the problematic healthcare reforms and the equally problematic hidden machinations and lack of transparency in non-legislative decision-making whereby billions of taxpayer dollars were mysteriously distributed as part of the Troubled Asset Recovery Program (TARP). Missing in action in the latter are identification of the beneficiaries, the benefits, and accountability to the people. Ford seems to advocate as well a Federal Reserve with no oversight and an abridgement of first amendment rights (148) that would curtail freedom of expression by lobbyists and special interest groups.

Implied in the latter half of the book in which Ford focuses on solutions, is a strongly Keynesian program of government intervention to steer and, eventually radically reconstitute, the free market system in order to preserve the mass market which is so crucial to continuing increases in prosperity. Some of these proposals ring hollow given the dubious record of the federal government in constructively steering the economy. Ford implies that the private sector cannot reshape itself and evolve as technology essentially eliminates the bulk of labor-intensive industry. Instead, "preservation of robust market demand...[must] become a core function of government" (161). A massive scheme of income redistribution coupled with "absolute firewalls" around government safety net funds is proposed. The notion of "absolute firewall" is anathema to situations where one group is responsible for managing someone else's assets: nothing is sacred; there are no `lock boxes.' Government policies will "provide unequal income but equal opportunity" (169). But isn't this the definition of the consequence of free markets? Isn't a "highly-regulated, market-oriented" system an oxymoron?

Ford points out the problematic issues of externalities which concerns benefits or costs from marketplace actions that do not accrue to those who create the benefits or costs, for example, the destruction of a public good like clean air by industries that reap the benefits of production but do not pay the cost in terms of damage to the environment. However, Ford seems to reflexively appeal to government `solutions' to manage externalities. He advocates that government get in the business of journalism (176-77), set up a "National Incentives Board" (again "staffed by professionals") to presumably engineer appropriate social and commercial behavior by "...adjust[ing] incentives...in much the same way that the Federal Reserve controls interest rates" (178). Ford mentions the crucial issue of "moral hazard" and the myriad problems involved in transitioning to an economy that is less, perhaps much less, based in labor-intensive production, but does not reconcile proposed solutions with the disruptive impact on `normal' competitive dynamics among organizations and the `natural' and ultimately constructive process of Schumpeterian creative destruction.

Ford briefly mentions the "international view" (183-185), but underestimates the challenges of the international system whose structure, and inherent propensities for conflict, I believe will persist for generations to come. The global economy and world political system are far from the state of homogeneity implied or assumed in Ford's arguments. This is not to say that some of the scenarios outlined in the book will not come to pass, just that the transition to alternative market modes is made more complex by persistence of the international system structure that has evolved over the last several hundred years and in which our societies are deeply entrenched. Ford posits, let's assume correctly, that relaxing constraints on production reduces the role of resources, labor, and technology, leaving consumer demand as the sole persistent feature of a market economy. The section "The Evolution toward Consumption" offers a brief but interesting discussion of the implications of the idea that "an individual's consumption might someday be valued above his or her contribution to production" (206) launching questions in the inquisitive mind about the validity and implications of post-materialist (Inglhart) or post-scarcity theses. Will consumption patterns shift significantly from material goods to the intangible, i.e., to virtual experiences, artificially-generated physical or cognitive sensations; to increased epistemic appetites (seeking knowledge for knowledge's sake), to art, leisure, or spiritual activities less based on consumption of material goods and services? How will consumers' tastes and preferences change in the far future when we are healthier, have (perhaps much) greater longevity, and have hopefully conquered the challenges of subsistence living experienced by so many of the world's less fortunate?

While it is easy to take pot shots at any work that engages substantive economic, social, and political issues, my critique is not intended to diminish the power of Ford's work in broaching the important issue of the global economy in a world increasingly dominated by automation and eventually (in my view) by strong artificial intelligence (AI) in the sense that Ray Kurzweil outlines in his book "The Singularity is Near." Ford's is a bold work and well worth the time to read and study. Ford offers astute observations that serve as a springboard for conversation and consideration of the impact of technology advances on the marketplace of the future.