The Lost Majority: Why the Future of Government Is Up for Grabs - and Who Will Take It [Hardcover]

Sean Trende (Author)

Book Description

Release date: January 3, 2012

In today’s fraught political climate, one thing is indisputable: the dream of the emerging Democratic majority is dead. How did the Democrats, who seemed unstoppable only two short years ago, lose their momentum so quickly, and what does it mean for the future of our two-party system? Here, RealClearPolitics senior analyst Sean Trende explores the underlying weaknesses of the Democratic promise of recent years, and shows how unlikely a new era of liberal values always was as demonstrated by the current backlash against unions and other Democratic pillars. Persuasively arguing that both Republicans and Democrats are failing to connect with the real values of the American people - and that long-held theories of cyclical political "realignments" are baseless - Trende shows how elusive a true and lasting majority is in today’s climate, how Democrats can make up for the ground they’ve lost, and how Republicans can regain power and credibility. Trende’s surprising insights include:

The South didn’t shift toward the Republicans because of racism, but because of economics.

Barack Obama’s 2008 win wasn’t grounded in a new, transformative coalition, but in a narrower version of Bill Clinton’s coalition.

The Latino vote is not a given for the Democrats; as they move up the economic ladder, they will start voting Republican.

Even before the recent fights about the public sector, Democratic strongholds like unions were no longer relevant political entities.

With important critiques of the possible Republican presidential nominations in 2012, this is a timely, inspiring look at the next era of American politics.

Editorial Reviews

Review

“There is much that is useful in Trende’s data-rich analysis, even (perhaps especially) for those put off by his conservative credentials… he reminds us that nothing is inevitable in American politics. Demographic advantage does not equal certain political victory.”—The New Republic

 

“Trende has developed a reputation as one of the country’s most promising younger political analysts. In this iconoclastic, detailed study, he takes on one of the most visible and widely supported theories in contemporary American politics…Trende makes a strong argument that American politics is surprisingly fluid and that the widespread belief in the existence of distinct eras—such as the New Deal era, from 1932 to 1968, or the era of Republican ascendance, from Richard Nixon through George W. Bush—does not hold up under close examination.”—Foreign Affairs

"A remarkably informative and insightful primer on American elections….Many of Trende’s topics would be fertile ground for an entire book, and I join Trende’s many fans in looking forward to his next one. When the time arrives to draw up the curriculum for the Walter Lippmann Pundit Training Academy — think clown college, but less amusing — Sean Trende’s book ought to be at the top of the reading list.”--The National Review

"If you read only one political book before the presidential election make it THE LOST MAJORITY . . . A provocative, original analysis of the coalitions that have shaped the past century's politics . . . The depth of research and incisive analysis displayed in THE LOST MAJORITY powerfully confirm Trende's status as a bright new star in the field." --Lousiville Courier-Journal

“Trende is persuasive in debunking realignment theory…on his main subject, the zig and zag of party politics, Trende is wholly convincing. He has a fi ne sense of exactly which item to select from his vast store of data to make his case. In American politics, every majority is in time a lost majority.”--Commentary

"A convincing, methodical assessment of historical coalition-building and its impact on contemporary politics . . . [an] impressive debut.”--The Weekly Standard

“Readable and logical…a fairly persuasive argument that our general assumptions about the implications of any given election are usually wrong…I heartily recommend The Lost Majority: particularly if you want to have a good idea how people have actually been voting for the last ninety years.”--RedState

"A brilliant critique of what we might call realignment thinking." --Reihan Salam, The National Review Online

“Sean is one of the best analysts in the political realm today because he looks for what the data actually says rather than what he wants it to say. The result is a book that will frustrate both Republican and Democratic activists because it does not foresee a realigning victory for either team. Well done!”—Scott Rasmussen, Founder and President, Rasmussen Reports

“For about a half century, students of American politics, including myself, have been held captive by the theory of realignment. Every turnover of Congress or the White House has brought new predictions of a long-term majority. Sean Trende does a remarkably good job of trying to undermine this view of American politics. Anyone interested in where our elections are taking us—on the left or the right—would benefit from reading his book.”—John B. Judis, Senior Editor, The New Republic, and author of The Emerging Democratic Majority

 

“For years I thought there was nothing new to be found on the well-trodden ground of American political history over the last century. I was wrong. In The Lost Majority Sean Trende provides an original and convincing analysis of the politics of our past and a bracing look at where it can go in the future. Required reading for all political junkies.”—Michael Barone, Senior Political Analyst, The Washington Examiner

 

“The last ten years of American politics have been a roller coaster that has confounded all the experts. Until now. In this groundbreaking book, Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics re-conceives the last 80 years of American history to explain persuasively why both the Republicans and Democrats have foundered, and what happens next to both sides. This one is a must-have for those with an interest in next year’s electoral battle!”—Jay Cost, The Weekly Standard

 

“This thoughtful, data-rich, well-argued book by Sean Trende makes a persuasive case: that dreams of a permanent electoral majority are destined to be dashed. Every president and his advisers dream the dream, that a temporary victory in one or two elections can somehow be transformed into one-party rule for eons. Free people in a republic won’t permit it, and economic cycles and other big events will eventually make fast work of political plans hatched in anybody’s Oval Office.”—Larry Sabato, author of A More Perfect Constitution

About the Author

Sean Trende is the senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics.com and has one of the top track records in the industry for correctly predicting the outcome of elections. His work is regularly cited by commentators on both sides of the political spectrum, including Rush Limbaugh, David Brooks, Michael Barone, and Nate Silver. He is a regular guest on Fox News and makes regular radio appearances on NPR’s “All Things Considered,” CNN Radio, and FoxNews Radio. He lives in Midlothian, Virginia.

Product Details

• Hardcover: 272 pages
• Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan (January 3, 2012)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0230116469
• ISBN-13: 978-0230116467
• Product Dimensions: 6.3 x 0.9 x 9.5 inches
• Shipping Weight: 15.2 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (12 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #742,356 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Most Helpful Customer Reviews

20 of 22 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Pay no attention to the pundits--there is no permanent Democratic or Republican majority anywhere on the horizon. March 29, 2012

By Paul Tognetti TOP 500 REVIEWERVINE™ VOICE

Format:Hardcover

It seems we hear the same discussion after nearly election cycle. The party that lost the election is about to consigned to the political scrap heap. The pundits tell us that the election was "transformative" and that a major political realignment is underway. Likewise, over the past 100 years countless books have been written touting historic realignments that supposedly took place or are about to unfold. Two prime examples of this would be Kevin Phillip's 1968 book "The Emerging Republican Majority" and John B Judis and Ruy Texiera's 2004 offering "The Emerging Democratic Majority". But according to author Sean Trende history has proven that this is simply not the case at all. His new book "The Lost Majority: Why the Future of Government Is Up for Grabs--and Who Will Take It" makes an extremely convincing case that not only has this not been the case in the past but that realignment is even less likely to occur in the future.

In the Introduction to "The Lost Majority" Sean Trende hints at where this book is headed when he notes "When we clear out the muck dredged up by the realignment theorists and reexamine electoral history in a fresh light, we see scores of "lost majorities" littering the electoral landscape." Trende goes on to say that "voter coalitions in a broad, diverse country are inherently fragile. Issues that cause disparate groups to band together tend to fade quickly, while new issues arise that can put these groups at loggerheads." Time and again in "The Lost Majority" Trende presents examples of broad coalitions that inevitably splintered apart. All of this may come as a shock to partisan pundits like Chuck Todd and Karl Rove but a close examination of the facts seems to speak for themselves....

In Part I of "The Lost Majority" Trende shows us "How We Got Here". Many historians will tell you that the 1932 election of Franklin Delano Roosevelt was certainly one of those "realignment" elections. But the author counters this notion with polling data that suggests that as the 1930's wore on more and more voters were against expanding the New Deal. According to Trende "fifty-eight percent opposed Roosevelt's court-packing plan, fifty-three percent favored relief reductions, while 79 percent opposed direct payments to relief recipients." This is certainly not the history of this period that I have been taught. As Sean Trende points out this is just one of many examples of the party in power erroneously believing that they had a mandate from the voters that really did not exist. And more often than not there is a price to be paid for "overreaching".

In Part II of the book the author tries to give us some sense of "Where We Are" right now. Perhaps the most instructive part of this portion of the book is a wide-ranging 2007 survey of voters conducted by the Pew Research Group. The poll uncovered the fact that American attitudes had changed very little on the issues since 1987. Furthermore, the poll revealed that attitudes were not appreciably less "conservative" than they had been in the heyday of the Reagan administration. Very interesting indeed! Despite all the proclamations by the so-called "experts" on the right and on the left the American people as a whole remain slightly right of center and have continued to split their vote in both Congressional and Presidential elections. Furthermore, it appears that more and more Congressional seats are now in play. In fact, according to Michael Barone of Real Clear Politics each party has held more than 300 of the House seats at least once in the past two decades. This is just one more fact that tends to debunk all of those "realignment" theories.

In the final chapters of "The Lost Majority" Sean Trende considers "Where We Go From Here". Once again, the preponderance of the evidence presented by the author tends to downplay the possibility of any kind of major "realignment" taking place any time soon. From where I sit I found the data on "Latinos" and the so-called "youth" and "minority" vote to be of particular interest. Once again the facts do not support the conventional wisdom of the "chattering" class. Meanwhile, Trende continues to drive home the point that economic cycles, unforeseen events, the tendency by the party in power to "overreach" and "bad" candidates all tend to work against the possibility of major realignments.

At the end of the day I would have to say that "The Lost Majority: Why the Future of Government Is Up for Grabs--and Who Will Take It" is a ground-breaking book that shatters much of the conventional wisdom that so many Americans take for granted. I found the well-placed charts and graphs presented throughout the book to be a great help in helping to drive home the author's most salient points. "The Lost Majority" is a well-written and meticulously researched book that would be a great choice for history buffs, political junkies and general readers alike. Very highly recommended! Read more ›

15 of 16 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Essential Reading January 12, 2012

By Kavon W. Nikrad

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase

I strongly encourage anyone who is tired of the inane blathering of today's political pundits, and longs for insightful analysis and truly engaging writing, to purchase this book.

Sean Trende, who is the Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearpolitics.com, is one of the most startling talents to emerge onto America's political stage in ages. Possessing an encyclopedic knowledge of American elections, Mr. Trende is able to make connections and provide insights into electoral trends which lesser pundits are simply incapable of.

In "The Lost Majority", Mr. Trende explains how the dream of a permanent Democratic majority emerging from the 2008 election was an illusion, mainly because all political majorities/coalitions are transitory. What sets this book apart, however, is Mr. Trende's unique insights on demographics. Namely, how much of what you hear that is passed on as "known facts" regarding how racial/ethnic/economic groups vote is simply wrong.

Buy this book! I can promise that what you read will utterly change the way you view American politics. Not many electoral analysts are capable of this. But if you have read Mr. Trende in the past, you know that for him this is routine.

12 of 13 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Brilliant January 15, 2012

By Jordan Cunningham

Format:Hardcover

Written for the lay reader, but containing analysis worthy of a political science text, this book manages to be a number of things at once.

First, it is a convincing antidote to the fallacy of the Emerging Democratic Majority, and any other such work, which argues that one party or another is destined to dominate our national political landscape.

Second, it is an empirical survey of the political trends of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st. Rather than cherry-picking numbers to back his theory, Trende lets the data guide his analysis. In so doing, he turns much of conventional wisdom on its head. For example, FDR's continued expansion of government did not guarantee his later re-elections, rather it was his new status as a wartime leader. Reagan did not create a new coalition so much as rejuvenate Eisenhower's dormant one. Clinton's rebranding of the democrats as a party of fiscal rectitude and centrism led to electoral victory, but Obama's unraveling of this brand in his first two years in office led to the historic Republican gains in 2010.

Third, Trende's work advances and supports his own theory of the political universe. Politics in America is, was, and always will be fluid. Shifting coalitions are the norm. As a consequence, one simply cannot make accurate linear projections based on past results or demographic trends -- such projections invariably will be proven wrong. And this fluidity and ability to self-correct is what gives our democracy its resilience and durability. The future is an open book,and nothing is written.

This book will change your thinking about American politics. It will become a classic of the political genre.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful

4.0 out of 5 stars Well Written Political Book April 18, 2013

By S. D. Miller

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase

This book is a very interesting and well written book. Mr Trende's thesis is that American elections do run in 36 year cycles but in different cycles. For instance he believes that from the election in 1952 which elected Dwight D Eisenhower thru the 1988 election, was the Eisenhower coalition. Starting in 1992 we have the Clinton coalition of minorities, working class whites and suburbanites.

Mr Trende believes that Obama has essentially a smaller subset of the Clinton Coalition.

He backs this up with a sorting of the election return data by county.

Mr Trende has converted me to belief in his Eisenhower and Clinton coalitions theory.