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The Naked Portfolio Manager: Why Rules Trump Reason on Wall Street

4.9 out of 5 stars 10 customer reviews
ISBN-13: 978-0984089437
ISBN-10: 0984089438
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Editorial Reviews

About the Author

Robert J. Fischer brings a rare combination of skills, talents, and background to his career as senior portfolio manager and as an advisor for affluent individuals at a national brokerage firm. His noteworthy success in the investment field is based upon his in-depth knowledge of decision making, which he applies in a disciplined rule-based approach: the application of Statistical Prediction Methods. Fischer has written numerous articles on investment and financial planning for respected industry publications. He lives with his family in Midlothian, Virginia.
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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 176 pages
  • Publisher: Abbalucci Press (October 1, 2009)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0984089438
  • ISBN-13: 978-0984089437
  • Product Dimensions: 9.2 x 6.3 x 0.7 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.3 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (10 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,352,006 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Top Customer Reviews

Format: Hardcover
The Naked Portfolio Manager is simply the most understandable book on behavioral finance and investment decision making available. The goal of the book is to illustrate a superior approach to investment decisions. It is consistent with process improvement methods used in industry today since it relies on developing a consistent, repeatable, measurable approach.

The book consists of four sections.

1. The Case for Statistical Decision Making
This section makes the case for deciding how to decide. You can either:

a) Analyze available information and reach a buy/sell conclusion based on experience, special knowledge, or intuition - in other words, judgment-based investing. One-of-a-kind decisions dependant on the expert characterize this approach. Or you can
b) Pick an algorithm and let the algorithm identify buy/sell conditions based on the available information - in other words, rule-based investing. Consistent, repeatable decisions independent of who uses the algorithm characterize this approach.

Bob Fischer makes an excellent case for the latter. He refers to rule-based, algorithmic decision making as Statistical Decision Making (SPM). NOTE: Don't worry about the math part - somehow Bob makes it all happen without resorting to lots of math and statistics.

Examples from a variety of disciplines illustrate the difference between clinical (judgment-based) decision making by experts and decision making using algorithms.

2. Common Thinking Errors
This section is worth the price of the book even if you decide not invest using SPM since the rule-based approach is applicable to any endeavor involving decision making. Other books on investing deal with behavioral finance but in my opinion, not as clearly as this book.
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Format: Hardcover
[...]

This is my first book review. The book's author will be familiar to many Virginia chess players: a local USCF Life member who has attained the distinguished Life Master title. Yet, Bob will agree that his more prestigious titles are Certified Financial Planner and Multi-Millionaire. The Naked Portfolio Manager is not a chess book, but an excellent book about investing. This groundbreaking work is truly exceptional in how it discusses the similarities between chess thinking and investment decision-making. Does a discussion of an investment book deserve to be found within the pages of a chess magazine? Yes!

Bob presses home the point that the most successful investment technique is Statistical Prediction Methodology (SPM), versus a more traditional judgment method (TJM). Based on the statistical facts, a SPM will beat out a TJM every time. In other words, over a lifetime of investing, statistical prediction methods are clearly superior and will trounce judgment-based methods.

The key to statistical prediction methods is to ascertain the handful of rules required to reach a successful investment decision. Like zero and double-zero on a casino roulette wheel, the book will "show you how to tilt the odds in your favor just slightly. And while the edge this truth will give you is small and difficult to measure in the short term; over a lifetime of investing, the advantage it will give you can have a very meaningful impact on your ability to accumulate wealth."

Bob quickly comes right to the point, succinctly stating on page 5: "The first decision should be not to buy stocks or pick managers, but to select a winning strategy and a method of implementing that strategy.
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Format: Hardcover
As a CPA, I have seen how many individual investors scramble from broker to broker, scheme to scheme, or tip to tip--as they try to achieve investment success. This book can help them to assemble a strategy that can be consistently applied, enabling long-term investment growth.

The author encourages an investment approach based upon mathematical modeling, which he calls Statistical Prediction Methodology. He suggests that investments should not be "picked," but that the investor instead should select a winning investment strategy and methodology for implementing that strategy.

He describes in detail how decisions based on an individual's judgment, knowledge or expertise can actually sabotage investment returns, even where this is no preconceived bias. He gives examples of how this happens due to critical thinking errors.

This book will serve as a terrific guide for investors in today's economic climate, which demands wise investment decision-making.
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Format: Hardcover
Bottom line this is an terrific book. Many anecdotes used bring out statistical principals in a new and entertaining way. I especially enjoyed Chapter 4 on Fuzzy Thinking...we have all been guilty of that at one time or another!
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Format: Hardcover
Bob does a great job of explaining a highly technical subject in layman terms. He discusses various topics including investing, logic, psychology and decision making.
A well organized, down to earth and convincing read.
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The Naked Portfolio Manager: Why Rules Trump Reason on Wall Street
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