The Reckoning: Debt, Democracy, and the Future of American Power [Hardcover]

Michael Moran (Author), Nouriel Roubini (Foreword)

Book Description

Release date: April 10, 2012

The age of American global dominance is ending. In recent years, risky economic and foreign policies have steadily eroded the power structure in place since the Cold War. And now, staggering under a huge burden of debt, the country must make some tough choices--or watch its creditors walk away. In The Reckoning, Michael Moran, longtime foreign policy journalist and geostrategy analyst at Renaissance Capital, Roubini Global Economics, the Council on Foreign Relations, and other leading institutions, explores how a variety of forces are converging to challenge U.S. leadership--including unprecedented information technologies, the growing prosperity of countries like China, India, Brazil, and Turkey, and the diminished importance of Wall Street in the face of global markets.
This shift will have serious consequences for the wider world as well. Countries that have traditionally depended on the United States for protection will have to adjust their policies to reality. Each nation will be responsible for its own human rights record, energy production, and environmental policy, and revolutions will succeed or fail unaided. Moran describes how, with a bit of political leadership, America can transition to this new world order gracefully--by managing entitlements, reigniting sustainable growth, reforming immigration policy, and breaking the poisonous deadlock in Washington. If not, he warns, the new era will arrive on its own terms and provide a nasty shock to those clinging to the 20th century.

Editorial Reviews

From Booklist

The U.S. can no longer afford the exorbitant cost of national security or be responsible for global security and the sense of manifest destiny on which it is built. Working with the research of renowned economist Nouriel Roubini, Moran forecasts global trends that include the rise of China, India, Brazil and others while the U.S. maintains its strength but sees its “exceptionalism” tarnished. He analyzes the impact of important trends, including crushing U.S. national debt, information technology reducing U.S. influence around the world, the rising prosperity of emerging nations, and the loss of financial credibility because the U.S. triggered the economic crisis of 2008. Will the U.S. learn the lessons of the recent past or continue to deny reality? Moran sees a hopeful sign in the downgrading of debt, which forces tough decisions. But he also notes continued “ideological puritanism” that will wreck any plans for real change. His recommendations include a more manageable military budget, restoration of financial regulations, and strengthening of the middle class. A grim but hopeful analysis of the global position of the U.S. and the dire need for change. --Vanessa Bush

Review

"Michael Moran understands what few Americans do: that we have reached a tipping point in global history that will fundamentally change the planet...America will find it very difficult to adjust to its new place as a peer, rather than a dominant nation."

--From the Foreword by Nouriel Roubini, Chairman and Founder, Roubini Global Economics

"The Reckoning is a chilling survey of the state of the world and American global leadership. Michael Moran sees the real problems and argues that things will go from bad to worse unless Washington ... change its ways and embrace major reforms. I hope he's wrong--but I fear he may be right."

Gideon Rose

Editor, Foreign Affairs

“An engaging, if chilling read… Moran's point of view is valuable, particularly in the context of the U.S.' November elections.”—USA Today

"The Reckoning is a smart, sober and clear-eyed primer on the Post-American Century. Read it, and then demand equally straight answers from those who seek your vote."--The Seattle Times

"A grim but hopeful analysis of the global position of the U.S. and the dire need for change."--Booklist

"For policy and financial wonks, a smart, bracing and sobering read; for voters, fair warning about possible outcomes of the looming November elections."--Kirkus Reviews

 

“This solemn examination of the severe problems facing the U.S. today...offers a practical, useful roadmap for change if politicians will follow.”—Publishers Weekly

 

"The Reckoning is a chilling survey of the state of the world and American global leadership. Michael Moran sees the real problems and argues that things will go from bad to worse unless Washington can somehow manage to change its ways and embrace major reforms. I hope he's wrong--but I fear he may be right."--Gideon Rose, Editor, Foreign Affairs and author of How Wars End

 

"Mike Moran is a sharp thinker and a fine storyteller, and The Reckoning is a terrifically engaging read. America's role in the world is a subject that demands clarity and nuance, and this book delivers both."--Ian Bremmer, author of The End of the Free Market

  

“With the clarity and style of someone used to communicating complicated stuff to a general audience, Moran draws on his decades of experience to lay out for readers all the factors in the bill that has come due for America and how we can pay it off.  The choices are hard but Moran is not a "declinist;" he is a realistic optimist. The Reckoning is a book that frames the choices facing America's citizens better than any I have read.”--Michael Goldarb, Senior Correspondent, GlobalPost.com and author of Emancipation: How Liberating Europe's Jews From the Ghetto Led to Revolution and Renaissance

 

"Moran comprehensively and bluntly catalogs the political, economic, and foreign policy errors that have drained the Treasury and diminished global opinion of American leadership.  His views will irritate many current stakeholders.  They do however contribute to a needed debate on American’s future role in global security and Moran believes that role, while, requiring changes in style and substance, remains vital."--Dr. William Turcotte, Chairman Emeritus, Naval War College

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 256 pages
• Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan (April 10, 2012)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 023033993X
• ISBN-13: 978-0230339934
• Product Dimensions: 6.4 x 0.8 x 9.5 inches
• Shipping Weight: 14.4 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (6 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #833,407 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Michael E. Moran is an author and analyst of international affairs and director and Editor-in-Chief of Renaissance Insights, the thought-leadership division of the investment bank Renaissance Capital. Moran's book, "The Reckoning: Debt, Democracy and the Future of American Power," was published by Palgrave Macmillan in April 2012. He is also a co-author of a book on Africa, "The Fastest Billion," (October 2012) and has produced three Emmy award winning documentaries on international affairs and global economics.

Moran has worked at a variety of major economic and foreign policy institutions besides Renaissance Capital: as Vice President and Executive Editor of Roubini Global Economics (2009-2011); Executive Editor and head of digital media at the Council on Foreign Relations (2005-2009). He is also a veteran journalist, having been a columnist and head of International News and Special Reports, MSNBC.com (1996-2005); U.S. affairs analyst, BBC World Service (1993-96); senior editor, Radio Free Europe (1990-93), and as a reporter for Associated Press, St. Petersburg Times, Sarasota Herald-Tribune (1985-90).

During his time at CFR, Moran led a team that earned a News & Documentary Emmy award for his role as executive producer of Crisis Guide: Darfur, an interactive multimedia feature on the humanitarian crisis in Sudan's Darfur region. He repeated the following year (2009), winning the Emmy in the "New Approaches to Business and Financial Coverage" category for Crisis Guide: The Global Economy. In April 2011, "Crisis Guide: Pakistan" received an Overseas Press Club award, and the final in the series, "Crisis Guide: Iran," won an Emmy award in 2012.

Moran served as an adjunct professor of international affairs at Bard College in New York from 2004-2011 and is a past Hearst New Media Fellow at Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism. He served for a decade on the board of the Overseas Press Club and as a judge of its annual awards. His work has appeared in the New York Times, the Washington Post, Newsweek, The Economist, The Spectator (UK), The Guardian, The New Leader, on National Public Radio and in many other outlets. He has lectured at dozens of universities and think tanks around the world.

Moran was also a member of the communications advisory board of Human Rights Watch from 2001 to 2012.

Moran may be best known for a foreign policy column he wrote during his years at MSNBC.com, Brave New World. One column in particular, written in December, 1999, was entitled "Times's Up for the Taliban" and, citing the threat Osama bin Laden presented to major cities in the United States, advocated a U.S.-led coalition of like-minded states invade and capture the al-Qaida leader, asking "precisely what order of atrocity will it take for these great powers to put aside their differences and act together against the Taliban and the threat it nurtures. Would the destruction of the Seattle Space Needle have been enough? It's hard to say."

He broke the 2004 story of inadequate armor on American Humvee patrol vehicles, a revelation which, combined with the quick, angry response of service parents, ultimately forcing the Pentagon to spend tens of millions to "back-armor" the vehicles.

Moran was born in Kearny, N.J. in May 1962.

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

7 of 9 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars A Careful Confrontation with Reality - May 14, 2012

By Loyd E. Eskildson HALL OF FAME

Format:Hardcover

The day of American global dominance is ending - a huge debt burden, and risky economic and foreign policies have made a mockery of our cherished notion of exceptionalism. Instead of confronting reality, we continue our unsuccessful practices - eg. fiscal policy directed by the size of the national debt rather than the employment crisis at hand has become a tremendous drag on economic growth. Our one 'hope,' manipulating exchange rates to influence trade balances, is a zero-sum game.

The 'good news' is that America will continue to appear strong, perhaps for as long as a generation; the 'bad news' is that our slow decline is not likely to prod the significant constructive actions needed. These include more progressive taxation and fiscal stimulus aimed at improving productive infrastructure, coupled with long-term fiscal discipline, stricter supervision and regulation of a financial system still running amok (eg. J.P. Morgan), and the breakup of 'too big to fail' banks. Also needed - less investment in hugely expensive satellite weaponry, hypersonic aircraft, and naval flotillas.

Except for the peak years of WWII, the U.S. has never had a debt/GDP ratio as high as it is now. At 1% rates, the interest now has reached $169 billion/year, exceeding eg. federal spending on highway construction and other 2011 transportation projects.

Israel was the #2 recipient of U.S. foreign aid in 2010, #3 in 2011. Adding Egypt and Jordan's foreign-aid receipts (provided primarily to calm the waters for Israel), would clear make Israel the #1 recipient in both years. Israel's policies of occupying the West Bank and Gaza, proliferating nuclear weapons while pretending it doesn't have any, and the denial of voting and property rights to Palestinians cannot continue. Other Mid-East states (eg. Saudi Arabia - both a major source of oil and holder of our debt) will demand a more aggressive U.S. stance vs. Israel.

Moran is somewhat encouraged by rising labor costs within China; however, he ignores that millions more workers still available in China, as well as India, Vietnam, etc.

China's world influence is boosted by the fact it can shoot down satellites with lasers, and its carrier-killer can strike as much as 1,200 miles offshore. (The range of carrier-based aircraft absent refueling is not about 735 miles.) It's now the #1 trade partner vs. South Korea, Japan, Australia, and India. This doesn't bode well for U.S. influence in those areas. Further, everyone (especially South Korea) knows China has far more leverage with North Korea than does the U.S.

Placing Pakistan into the category of 'friend' has undermined relations with India; ironically, both have strong intelligence assets vs. the Taliban. India then retaliated by declining to consider purchasing new U.S. fighter aircraft.

The 'really bad news' is that even recent severe shocks have failed to motivate rethinking - eg. 9/11 instead saddled us with misguided wars and the squandering of much of the admiration and good will that had been acquired following the peaceful end of the Cold War. Then came the 'Great Recession' after our Darwinistic financial systems deregulation, further worsening matters. Still no major changes. And perhaps worst of all, what passes for 'truth' in American political debate adds no light but does provide another major obstacle. Moran doesn't see either the Tea Party or Obama as leading the U.S. forward in a positive manner.

Recommendations: 1)'Tough love' for all our allies, else they'll continue to over-rely on the U.S. until reaching the point that it is obvious we've become a paper tiger. (Eg. Taiwan - Do you really think the U.S. will/could choose defending a nation nearly 7,000 miles away, vs. Los Angeles?) 2)Address income inequality and re-boot the economy by resetting mortgage loans to actual current values, re-emphasizing progressive taxation. 3)Take a 'gloves off' approach vs. the financial sector. 4)Restructure the military - eg. emphasize long-range drones vs. the new trillion-dollar-plus problem-plagued F-35, smaller ships vs. the $12+ trillion aircraft carrier U.S.S. Gerald Ford. 5)End our unilateral assumption of responsibility for Middle-East stability.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars hold on to your seats; it's going to be a bumpy ride... and here's why June 21, 2012

By Peter Baldwin

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase

Really enjoyed this eye-opening, riveting and non-partisan view of where we are in the world (vs. where we see ourselves). Though it's approach is a "plague on both houses" The Reckoning provides real resolutions. Anybody interested in understanding how we got here and where we think we are going (in the global political landscape) should read this book. Highly recommended!

6 of 9 people found the following review helpful

4.0 out of 5 stars Insights into changing world April 23, 2012

By e2121

Format:Hardcover

Fascinating and interesting take on some of the causes of the more serious geostrategic and macroeconomic issues facing the US today. In particular, chapters where Moran uses recent events to demonstrate how technology and social media shifted the balance of power in ways establishment powers couldn't predict, and how the rise of new powers (China, Brazil) will continue to challenge US leadership. He makes an eloquent case for real leadership in the US in terms of changing our foreign and monetary policy for the better before its too late- including current human rights and energy policies.