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The Roaring 2000s: Building The Wealth And Lifestyle You Desire In The Greatest Boom In History Paperback – October 14, 1999

ISBN-13: 978-0684853109 ISBN-10: 0684853108 Edition: Touchstone ed

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Product Details

  • Paperback: 320 pages
  • Publisher: Simon & Schuster; Touchstone ed edition (October 14, 1999)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0684853108
  • ISBN-13: 978-0684853109
  • Product Dimensions: 5.5 x 0.8 x 8.4 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 9.9 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 3.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (93 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #454,657 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

The world that author Harry S. Dent Jr. presents in his narration of The Roaring 2000s is one you'll want to live in: incredible interconnectivity between electronic devices, superfast jets, and computers that transmit video images, translate voice commands--everything except make omelets. Dent, who comes off like an accountant you'd trust with your last dime, makes the future sound so wonderful that you'll feel guilty listening to him talk about it on a low-tech cassette player. (Running time: three hours, two cassettes) --Lou Schuler --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

From Library Journal

Dent's previous book The Great Boom Ahead (Hyperion, 1993) accurately predicted the stock market boom of the 1990s. In this one, he looks ahead to the new millennium and claims that the Dow may reach as high as 35,000 within the next decade, due in large part to the changing demographics of baby boom investors.
Copyright 1999 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

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More About the Author

A Harvard MBA, Fortune 100 consultant, new venture investor, noted speaker and bestselling author, Harry S. Dent, Jr. is the founder and senior editor at Dent Research, where he dedicates himself to identifying and studying demographic, technological, and geopolitical trends. He has a free daily newsletter at www.harrydent.com called "Survive and Prosper."
With his track record of accurately predicting Japan's collapse in 1989, the dot-com bubble-bust in 2000 and the housing bust in 2006 to 2007 (among many other things), he has appeared on Good Morning America and PBS, and is a regular guest on CNBC and Fox Business. He's been featured in Barron's, Investor's Business Daily, Business Week, The Wall Street Journal, and American Demographics. And he's written numerous books, including The Great Boom Ahead(1992), The Great Depression Ahead(2008), The Great Crash Ahead(2011) and The Demographic Cliff(2014). www.harrydent.com

Customer Reviews

I must admit I would like to speak with this guy.
Richard Rydell
For a popular book, this is written in a way that makes it very accessible and easy to use.
Donald Mitchell
Together, over the period 2000 - 2008, the combined value will quadruple.
tony cannon

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

49 of 49 people found the following review helpful By "jdeamara" on December 9, 1999
Format: Hardcover
The book contains some insightful points about the underlying forces that drive economies such as ours. I really liked the way he fused together a good argument using population dynamics (alternating generation cycles) and market penetration of new technologies (S-Curves) for why we may experience a boom in the early 2000's. Another good observation on Dent's part (although he struggles to explained it at first) is what he terms the new network organization model for business. His chapter on spotting real-estate trends was informative, so was the last chapter on investment strategies.
Some of the things I didn't like (and why I didn't give the book a higher rating):
1) Constant references to his last book regarding key ideas and terminology. 2) Lack of specific references for further independent research (this really hurts his arguments for he cites many studies throughout the text) 3) What appears to be a lack of consideration for some other historical events that spurred change (for example WWII had a major role in the spurring of certain new technologies). 4) His incredible optimism that events will unfold exactly as described, in the time frame mentioned. 5) Some parts of the book seem either like old news or self-evident (see his explaination on page 251 of why some declining neighborhoods regenerate).
Overall, it's a good read and one will find Dent's ideas and philosophy interesting. I hope his vision comes true (for all of us).
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42 of 43 people found the following review helpful By A Customer on June 8, 2000
Format: Paperback
Simply put, Dent's predictions cannot occur. Consider the following figures.
Dent's current projections for the Dow Jones Industrials is 41,500 by 2008, whereas he now expects the Nasdaq to reach 45,000 by the same date. Were this to occur, the total stock market capitalization would exceed $101 trillion (currently around $14-$16 trillion)! Were the nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow at a rate of approximately 6.5%, including a real GDP rate of 4.0% (Greenspan's best-case target) and inflation of 2.5% (Fed's and GAO estimate), the nominal GDP would reach $17 trillion in 2008.
The ratio of total stock market capitalization to nominal GDP would reach 600%! The figure at the most recent highs was 185%. At the peaks in 1929, 1973, and 1987, the figures were 81%, 70%, and 64% respectively. At the height of Japan's bubble market in December 1989, this figure topped 150%. (The average of the past 129 years in the U.S. has been 50%.) This suggests that the ratio will TRIPLE in the next eight years. How can this happen? Answer: It cannot.
Dent predicted a real estate market crash (30%-50%) in the U.S. in 1994-95, based on his demographic analysis. This was a fundamental blunder.
Dent predicted in late 1997 and early 1998 that the Fed would raise rates in 1998, that the long bond yield would hit 7.25%, and that large-cap stocks would correct and recover but underperform small stocks. Such a failed prediction calls into question his very understanding of the business and interest rate cycles.
There should be no doubt in any reader's mind the dubious nature of Dent's methodology and therefore his projections. More than anything, Dent is an expert marketer of Harry Dent, genius, forecaster extraordinaire.
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13 of 13 people found the following review helpful By Mike Alexander on February 22, 2001
Format: Paperback
When I first read the Great Boom Ahead I found it compelling and when The Roaring 2000's was published I rushed right out and bought it. Dent uses a demographic concept he calls the spending wave to predict the future of the economy and stock market. I was so intrigued by this idea that I decided to replicate his analysis and to extend it back in time as far as I could (just to see if it worked). For a graph of my results see
[...]
As that graph shows, the spending wave 'worked' for 1929 too. But Dent's predictions really changed between The Great Boom Ahead and The Roaring 2000's. He projects a Dow of 23K to 35K by 2007-2010! He ignored the *level* predicted by his model and simply extrapolated the recent rate of rise to the 2007-2010 date his timing projects. This is a critical error (there could be an intervening bear market between now and 2007 for example). If you focus on the levels predicted using his methods you arrive at the conclusions that the bull market would end in the neighborhood of 1450 (in 1999 dollars) on the S&P500, which means it has ended already. One can interpret this result as a bear market is interposed between now and 2007 so that the index is only getting back to the prior peak (in real terms) by 2007 as Dent's model projects. Mr. Dent should have mentioned this in the Roaring 2000's. As a result I award 5 stars for the originality of the idea and the presentation, but only 1 star for the accuracy of his prediction for an overall three stars. I recommend the book Stock Cycles for a more careful projection of stock returns over the next 20 years.
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30 of 35 people found the following review helpful By Gaetan Lion on August 1, 2003
Format: Paperback
Harry Dent poses as an economist but he is not. He also poses as a demographer but he is not either. As a consequence, he develops sweeping broadbased theories without solid scientific foundation. His main theme is that the large Baby Boom generation is going through its peak spending years during this decade, and as a result it will sustain an economic and stock market boom until 2009. He concludes that it is almost certain that the stock market will earn 10% and above returns throughout this decade.
However, when you look at the record so far, Harry Dent's prediction in 1999 for the first decade of 2000's is way off. The ink was barely dry on his book when the stock market actually peaked (first quarter of 2000) and then tanked. The stock market then suffered a three year bear market. Current outlook for the stock market is for increased volatility, but reduced growth in the single digit range (not the double digit range, Dent predicted).
Dent missed a lot of things. Some of them he could not have predicted such as heightened geopolitical risk, terrorism. Some other factors, he should have predicted. These included the overvaluation of stocks as a result of the Internet Bubble, the onset of World deflation associated with the flooding of cheap exports from China, the eventual slow down of the U.S. economy among others.
Dent also pauses as a futurist. In this role, he just repeats what Alvin Toffler stated in Future Shock almost 30 years ago. Technology will reform the workplace, will boost economic productivity, etc... Nothing new or informative here.
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