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The Signal and the Noise ...in 30 Minutes Paperback – November 21, 2012

ISBN-13: 978-1623150525 ISBN-10: 1623150523

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Product Details

  • Paperback: 46 pages
  • Publisher: Garamond Press (November 21, 2012)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 1623150523
  • ISBN-13: 978-1623150525
  • Product Dimensions: 5.8 x 0.1 x 8.3 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 2.9 ounces
  • Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (31 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #925,241 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Editorial Reviews

About the Author

About the 30 Minute Expert Series 

The 30 Minute Expert Series is designed for busy individuals interested in acquiring an in-depth understanding of critically acclaimed books. 
 
More than just a summary, each book in the 30 Minute Expert Series offers a detailed analysis, key ideas and their application, and a contextual understanding of each work, in a straightforward and easily digestible format. Designed as companions to the original works, the 30 Minute Expert Series texts enable readers to gain expert knowledge of important works ...in 30 Minutes.

More About the Author

Designed for those whose desire to learn exceeds the time they have available, 30 Minute Expert Series enables readers to rapidly understand the important ideas behind critically acclaimed books.

With a condensed format, readers can quickly and easily become experts ...in 30 minutes.

Customer Reviews

I was able to read through and thoroughly understand Silver's ideas in less than one hour.
Missy Kitty
Teachers, stock market analysts, baseball coaches, weathermen, financial advisors, etc. need to be able to make as accurate predictions as possible.
Meistjac
This is a concise summary that seems to adequately - at least as far as I am concerned - cover the information in the book.
The Thinker

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

15 of 17 people found the following review helpful By Nosiba on December 14, 2012
Format: Kindle Edition
"The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes" is a condensed, fast read booklet of noted statistician and political analyst, Nate Silver's book "The Signal and the Noise: Why so Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't ". It is designed with an overview, summary and bullet points of the main ideas of each chapter.

The booklet summarizes Silver's examination in light of the "era of big data", how people's personal bias (the noise) can distort the viewing of information and truth (the signal) and lead to false prediction. It follows with a discussion of optimizing prediction via "Baye's theorem" with emphasize on Silver's mathematically derived, and proven successful, empirical formula PECOTA.

The summary provides the ability to thoroughly explore Silver's 300+ page book in 30 minutes, including the varied disciplines in his research in economics, politics, and psychology, and capturing Silver's real examples. It is a short, comprehensive, and concise booklet that summarizes 300 pages into 40 pages while retaining the original title's rich research and detailed discussion!
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7 of 7 people found the following review helpful By Charles Blick on January 19, 2013
Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
It gets right to the point, without all of the background and storytelling needed to fill a "regular" book. Good summaries.
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7 of 7 people found the following review helpful By Melissa A Willis on December 16, 2012
Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
This book is a condensed version of Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise." With no prior knowledge on the subject , I was concerned that the information it contained might go over my head. The beauty is that it doesn't. In his book, Silver discusses several areas in which the ability to make accurate predictions is invaluable. The summary touches briefly on each of these areas, including sports recruiting, weather and, of course, politics. We then find out why these predictions so often go wrong. Not surprisingly, a huge factor is the tendency of forecasters to manipulate information until it fits their own hypotheses while completely disregarding anything that threatens to prove them wrong.

The best part of this summary is that you don't have to be a political pundit or statistician to apply the principles it teaches. It guides you to assess any given prediction in order to determine whether or not you can put your faith in what is being said. You may be surprised at how often the answer is "No."
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6 of 7 people found the following review helpful By Adriela A. on December 18, 2012
Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
In Nate Silver's book, The Signal and the Noise, he explains how the common man can make successful predictions--and in The Signal and the Noise...in 30 Minutes, his complicated ideas are broken down into bite-sized pieces.

This guide does an awesome job of simplifying Silver's concepts. One of his big ideas uses an analogy between forest animals and the types of experts. In the original book, this made no sense; however, in the 30 Minute breakdown, after I read through the summary and the chapter's key points, the comparison was perfectly clear.

This kind of analogy decoding is repeated throughout the summary, going over all the word pictures Silver uses to describe predictions in the fields of finance, politics, global warming, and even games like chess and poker. Silver's book has great ideas, but it was really this guide that made them come together for me.

While this guide won't make you a fortuneteller, it will help you become a better predictor of outcomes, and with much less confusion than the original book!
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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful By Kat Wilson on December 14, 2012
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
A Concise Summary of Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise . . . in 30 Minutes delves into Nate Silver's world of forecasting and the methods used in analyzing data. This summary explores the area of sports, the earth's physical state, our economy, the medical community and terror attacks. Within each of these areas lies a mountain of data which when inputted into a computer model or system delivers statistical information which should be capable of predicting future results. Why then is it that so many predictions fail? Is the data being programmed incorrectly? Are the statistical theories wrong? The main decisive factor influencing these forecasts comes from interpreting the results of all this data. It's the human element coupled with the way we view life that is the variable that distorts the information. For as short as this summary is, the depth of Nate Silver's analysis has not been compromised.
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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful By Thomas J. Burchfield on December 13, 2012
Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
This is a clear, engaging, and well-organized summary of Nate Silver's bestselling The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail. (Silver is a statistician known for accurately predicting the outcome of the 2012 elections.)

The summary gives an introduction and a chapter-by-chapter overview of Silver's book. The first half describes Silver's reasoning for why so many predictions fail. Many predictions ignore the context in which they are made and dismiss other important facts that contradict their conclusions. People tend to let their biases shape how they receive information and make predictions that often turn out to be both over confident and wrong. Overconfidence and precision can be a sign that a prediction is wrong. (Politicians and media pundits are especially guilty in this regard.)

From there, Silver describes how we can correct our biases and so increase the accuracy of our predictions by applying Bayes theorem, a form of probabilistic thinking that accounts for the uncertainty of real life. Silver applies Bayes theorem to several realms to illustrate his point, including poker-playing, market bubbles, and terrorist attacks.

The summary is fast and well-written. I confidently--but not absolutely--predict it will make you eager to buy Silver's book.
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