The Two-Second Advantage: How We Succeed by Anticipating the Future--Just Enough [Hardcover]

Vivek Ranadive (Author), Kevin Maney (Author)

Book Description

Release date: September 6, 2011 | ISBN-10: 0307887650 | ISBN-13: 978-0307887658 | Edition: 1

What made Wayne Gretzky the greatest hockey player of all time wasn’t his speed on the ice or the uncanny accuracy of his shots, but rather his ability to predict where the puck was going to be an instant before it arrived. In other words, it was Gretzky’s brain that made him exceptional. Over the past fifteen years, scientists have found that what distinguishes the greatest musicians, athletes, and performers from the rest of us isn’t just their motor skills or athletic abilities—it is the ability to anticipate events before they happen. A great musician knows how notes will sound before they’re played, a great CEO can predict how a business decision will turn out before it’s made, a great chef knows what a recipe will taste like before it’s prepared.

In a powerful narrative that takes us from the research in the labs to the implementation of predictive technology inside companies, Vivek Ranadivé and Kevin Maney reveal how our understanding of human mastery is being applied to the way computers "think." In the near future, the authors argue, the most advanced computer systems and the most successful businesses will anticipate the future much like Wayne Gretzky’s brain does. As a result, companies will be able to use a new generation of technology to anticipate customer needs before customers even know what they want, and see production snafus before they occur, traffic jams before they materialize, and operational problems before they arise. Forward-thinking companies will be able to predict the future just a fraction ahead of everyone else with a little bit of the right information at the right time—what the authors call the two-second advantage—and it will transform the way businesses are run and offer companies an enormous competitive edge in the marketplace.

In the bestselling tradition of Blink, Sway, and How We Decide, The Two-Second Advantage will change our understanding of what makes a company successful.

Editorial Reviews

Review

"The right information at the right time is often the key to breakout success. Vivek's legendary entrepreneurial track record and the deep insight that he and Kevin Maney offer into the art of information technology makes this the right book at the right time to arm the reader with the knowledge and perspective the future will demand” —Marc Andreessen, Co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz, Opsware Inc. and Netscape
 
"Anyone interested in understanding the one common denominator of almost all long term success should read The Two-Second Advantage...organizations or even talented people don't need to have a vision of the future ten years or even ten days out. They need to accurately anticipate what’s about to happen next a split second before the competition using the right information at the right time." —Phillip Hellmuth Jr, 11-time World Series of Poker Champion and Poker Hall of Famer
 
"A compelling book on the 'art of anticipation' that everyone should read for every business today." —Mark V. Hurd is President of Oracle Corporation and a member of the Board of Directors.
 
“Ranadive and Maney convincingly show that by seeing the future we can achieve a new one. Neuroscience meets computer science and the result is profound, not to mention a great read.” —Don Tapscott, author of Wikinomics
 
“In an environment where the velocity of change is faster than at any other time in history, a company’s ability to capture The Two-Second Advantage can mean the difference between success and failure. Vivek articulates how leaders and organizations can use predictive processes to anticipate change and gain a competitive advantage that shapes the future of work.” —Francisco D'Souza, President and Chief Executive Officer, Cognizant
 
“An elegant exploration of how a company could in effect not guess, but anticipate what’s about to happen in two months from now or even an instant with right information at precisely the right time. The Two-Second Advantage is one of those rare books that shape our thinking about how companies and organizations should use technology to operate more like ‘talented’ humans.” —N Chandrasekaran, Chief Executive Officer, Tata Consultancy Services
 
“What does the unique scoring ability of hockey great Wayne Gretzky have to do with leading the modern organization in the digital age – how valuable is a consistent competitive advantage driven by predictive power?  With these engaging and insightful examples Ranadivé and Maney explore and explain how the leaders of ‘Enterprise 3.0’ are achieving sustainable competitive advantage through the use of predictive computing.” —Thomas H. Glocer, Chief Executive Officer, Thomson Reuters
 
“Critically important for today’s business leaders.   Customers are engaging with companies through an exploding number of channels, from mobile devices to the social universe.  The concept that we can not only understand all that customer data, but make accurate and business-shaping predictions from it, puts this on the must-read list.” —Shantanu Narayen, President & CEO, Adobe Systems Incorporated
 
“The Two-Second Advantage is a deft compilation of research and practical examples on how by having a little bit of the right information, at the right time and context, just far enough ahead is the key ingredient for success- in business and in other fields of human endeavor…the authors offer a vital perspective on how the available predictive capabilities can help make the world a better place.” —Klaus Schwab,  Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum
 
“The challenge of today’s digital world isn’t gathering data but making sense of it quickly. The Two-Second Advantage artfully explores how having the right information, in context and at the right time, can place you ahead of the game.”  —David Stern, NBA Commissioner
 
"Anyone interested in understanding the common thread of almost all long term success should read The Two-Second Advantage. The authors capture your imagination with this well-written and lively exploration on how by just having unique insight prior to an event helps organizations make innovative decisions and keep their competitive edge." —Chad Hurley Co-Founder of YouTube

“Get ready to rethink how you operate your business. ‘The Two-Second Advantage’ puts forth a simple but powerful notion that organizations don’t need to have a vision of the future ten years or even ten days out, they only need a little bit of the right information in the right context just far enough ahead to see an opening or opportunity an instant before the competition.” -  William H. Draper III, co-founder, Sutter Hill Ventures

“The Two-Second Advantage” is based on a powerful principle – a little bit of the right information ahead of time is more valuable than piles of information too late. That insight can help you stay a half-step ahead of competitors by anticipating the always changing preferences of today’s customers and who better than Vivek to talk about it.” - Vineet Nayar, Vice Chairman & CEO, HCL Technologies Ltd and Author, Employees 1st Customers 2nd

About the Author

VIVEK RANADIVÉ is the founder and CEO of the leading international software company, TIBCO Software Inc., that enables organizations to become event-driven. He is also the co-owner and vice chairman of the Golden State Warriors NBA franchise. A frequently cited expert in the media on real-time computing, Ranadivé is the author of the New York Times bestseller The Power of Now. KEVIN MANEY writes for Fortune, The Atlantic, Fast Company, and other publications. He was the technology reporter at USA Today for more than twenty years. He is the author of the critically acclaimed books The Maverick and His Machine and Trade-Off.

Product Details

• Hardcover: 256 pages
• Publisher: Crown Business; 1 edition (September 6, 2011)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0307887650
• ISBN-13: 978-0307887658
• Product Dimensions: 5.5 x 0.9 x 8.3 inches
• Shipping Weight: 10.4 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (23 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #194,003 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • #59 in Books > Medical Books > Psychology > Occupational & Organizational

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

5 of 5 people found the following review helpful

4.0 out of 5 stars How Companies Will Win in Next Decade November 18, 2011

By Maquina Gringo

Format:Hardcover

Provides a clear vision for how the successful organization of the future will use data strategically to form distinctive competence. The authors believe future computer systems need to evolve to approximate human brains, which do not need to process instructions serially and can synthesize past experience and sensory input in real-time to make and act upon predictions. The result is more effective performance.

They use a sports metaphor that resonated with me -- just like Wayne Gretzky seemed to know where the hockey puck WOULD be two-seconds before his defenders did , organizations will be able to spot an unhappy customer before he defects, a terrorist before he acts, traffic accidents before they materialize and heart attacks in patient before they occur. Significant research is cited linking computer science and neuroscience -- very interesting material.

Ranadivé and Maney tacitly acknowledge privacy and "Big Brother" issues a bit, but seem to dismiss these concerns somewhat casually. Imagine, for example, insurance companies, universities or human resource personnel using predictive technology to reject potential applicants? This angle wasn't explored sufficiently and it made for a more evangelical technology read, rather than an objective cultural examination of the implications of this technology. Reader beware ...

11 of 14 people found the following review helpful

2.0 out of 5 stars Just Stories and How Brain Works February 1, 2012

By K. Virk

Format:Hardcover

Looking at the rating given by other folks, I think my expectations were quite different from this book. Enabling me how to get 2 second advantage in atleast 1200 seconds of reading. Few pages are dedicated to the story of Wayne Gretzky's brain functioning how he skated to where puck was going to be and all the intricate functioning of brain. Another example was how someone just had a glimpse of city from sky and drew the picture with amzing detail. How NYPD folks are using software to deter crimes by writing code himself in the begining. All good, but too many of such examples. My frustration was I was waiting for 2+2 to become 4; authors have great examples, but for me, it was beating around the bush. If you are building an application with business intelligence, it may give some ideas what other people are doing or thinking but I wasn't satisfied book is loaded with supporting material only. Could not offer more than 2 stars.

10 of 14 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars The power of prediction-based talent: Intuition on "the other side of complexity" September 10, 2011

By Robert Morris HALL OF FAMETOP 100 REVIEWERVINE™ VOICE

Format:Hardcover

At least a century ago, Oliver Wendell Holmes observed, "I don't care a fig for simplicity on this side of complexity but I would give my life for simplicity on the other side of complexity." I was again reminded of that observation as I began to read this brilliant book in which Vivek Ranadivé and Kevin Maney explain how and why we can achieve success (however defined) by anticipating the future "just enough." The book's title refers to what is often the difference between success and failure. However, with all due respect to the co-authors' intentions, I do not think the greatest value of this book can be measured in terms of time; rather, in term of proceeding from the simplicity of raw impulse through the complexity of probable implications, multiple perspectives, and potential consequences to "the other side of intuition" where correct decisions can be made almost spontaneously. The U.S. Airways pilot, Chesley Burnett ("Sully") Sullenberger III, who successfully ditched US Airways Flight 1549 in the Hudson River off Manhattan, New York City, on January 15, 2009, offers an excellent case in point. Once aware of the circumstances, he made the correct decision with little (if any) consideration of options. The same is true of countless other airline pilots as well as diagnostic surgeons (especially in hospital emergency rooms) and military leaders in combat who quite literally must make life-and-death decisions.

Long before Malcolm Gladwell published an article in The New Yorker that was later developed into a book, Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking (2005), Michael Kami (in Trigger Points, 1988) and then Andrew Grove (in Only the Paranoid Survive, 1999) explained how and why, as Ranadivé and Maney describe it, "judgments made in two seconds are often more accurate than those made after months of analysis." For decades, we have known - as revealed by a wealth of research in psychology and behavioral economics on the adaptive unconscious -- that mental processes can work rapidly and automatically from relatively little information.

However, there is an "if" (a HUGE "if") and it is this: Those who wish to develop a more predictive brain, one that can quickly process huge chunks of information, and then act upon that information, must be willing to commit the time and the attention required. That's what Sullenberger demonstrated when deciding to land the plane on the river. Wayne Gretzy always claimed that his advantage was knowing where the puck would go. Larry Bird describes his advantage differently but makes the same point: "When I'm playing basketball, everybody else seems to be moving in slow motion." It probably took all three about 10,000 hours of highly disciplined, iterative practice under strict, expert supervision to develop that capability...plus some luck such as being in the right place at the right time, with the right support, while developing various skills under the right conditions.

That said, the fact remains that few people are prepared to make such a commitment of time and effort and even if they did, it is possible but unlikely that they could achieve success comparable with what super talents such as Gretzky, Bird, Bobby Fischer, Michael Jordan, and Yo Yo Ma have. However, Ranadivé and Maney are convinced (and I fully agree) that many of those who read this book with appropriate can, over time, work their way through the complexity to a point at which they have increased their predictive talent. How? By increasing their knowledge and understanding of previous efforts (i.e. what works, what doesn't, and why), by strengthening their ability to recognize early-indicators of imminent probabilities (e.g. a quarterback "reading" a defense to know what to do next), and sharpening their ability to identify root causes after recognizing symptoms (e.g. an ER physician diagnosing a stranger who is near death after an traffic accident). The process of personal development that Ranadivé and Maney explain can be completed by almost anyone, anywhere, whatever the given circumstances may be.

A brief commentary such as this can hardly do full justice to the wealth of information, insights, and wisdom that Ranadivé and Maney provide. I also wish to commend them on the lively style with which they present their narrative. To those who read this commentary, I offer two assurances. First, any limits on your development - one that is guided and informed by the material in this book -- will be self-imposed. The two-second advantage must be earned and there are no short cuts. Also, the opportunities for applying what Vivek Ranadivé and Kevin Maney offer throughout any organization are unlimited, whatever the size and nature of that organization may be.