The Winner's Curse: Paradoxes and Anomalies of Economic Life [Paperback]

Richard H. Thaler (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: January 10, 1994 | ISBN-10: 0691019347 | ISBN-13: 978-0691019345

Richard Thaler challenges the received economic wisdom by revealing many of the paradoxes that abound even in the most painstakingly constructed transactions. He presents literate, challenging, and often funny examples of such anomalies as why the winners at auctions are often the real losers--they pay too much and suffer the "winner's curse"--why gamblers bet on long shots at the end of a losing day, why shoppers will save on one appliance only to pass up the identical savings on another, and why sports fans who wouldn't pay more than $200 for a Super Bowl ticket wouldn't sell one they own for less than $400. He also demonstrates that markets do not always operate with the traplike efficiency we impute to them.

Editorial Reviews

From Library Journal

An economic anomaly occurs when there is a difference between how standard economic theory predicts people should behave and how people actually behave. Thaler examines a number of these situations that occur in the real world and experimentally. Although everyone will recognize these situations, unfortunately much of his discussion will not be accessible to non-economists. Economists will find this an intriguing work that provides excellent reviews of some of the most recent economic research. Consequently this volume would be appropriate for libraries at universities with graduate programs in economics.
-Richard C. Schiming, Mankato State Univ., Minn.
Copyright 1991 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Review

By unraveling a series of real-world puzzles with philosophical and practical implications, Thaler illuminates some fairly abstruse ideas in an entertaining way.... The best minds in economics today, as Thaler's provocative book suggests, are trying to supplement [insights into markets and prices] with a broader understanding of what makes people tick. (Christopher Farrell Business Week )

Richard Thaler ... stylishly recounts empirical findings that skewer hitherto sheltered economic beliefs. (Lola L. Lopes Contemporary Psychology )

Product Details

• Paperback: 240 pages
• Publisher: Princeton University Press (January 10, 1994)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0691019347
• ISBN-13: 978-0691019345
• Product Dimensions: 6 x 0.6 x 9 inches
• Shipping Weight: 10.4 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (16 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #111,911 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Richard H. Thaler is the Ralph and Dorothy Keller Distinguished Service Professor of Economics and Behavioral Science at the University of Chicago's Graduate School of Business where he director of the Center for Decision Research. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research where he co-directs the behavioral economics project. Professor Thaler's research lies in the gap between psychology and economics. He is considered a pioneer in the fields of behavioral economics and finance, and has specialized in the study of saving and investing decision making. He is the author of numerous articles and the books Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth and Happiness (with Cass Sunstein), The Winner's Curse, and Quasi Rational Economics and was the editor of the collections: Advances in Behavioral Finance, Volumes 1 and 2. He also wrote a series of articles in the Journal of Economics Perspectives called: "Anomalies". He is now one of the rotating team of economists who write the Economic View column in the Sunday New York Times.

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

78 of 82 people found the following review helpful

4.0 out of 5 stars Useful introduction to a controversial field June 8, 2000

By Stephen M. Bainbridge

Format:Paperback

As with any model claiming predictive power, economics rests on a theory of human behavior-specifically, rational choice theory, which posits decisionmakers who are autonomous individuals who make rational choices that maximize their satisfactions. Critics of economics have long complained that rational choice is, at best, an incomplete account of human behavior. The traditional response to that criticism is that rationality is simply an abstraction developed as a useful model of predicting the behavior of large numbers of people and, as such, does not purport to describe real people embedded in a real social order. A theory is properly judged by its predictive power with respect to the phenomena it purports to explain, not by whether it is a valid description of an objective reality. Indeed, important and significant hypotheses often have assumptions that are wildly inaccurate descriptive representations of reality. Accordingly, the relevant question to ask about the assumptions of a theory is not whether they are descriptively realistic, for they never are, but whether they are sufficiently good approximations for the purpose in hand. Until quite recently, empirical research tended to confirm that the rational choice model of human behavior is a good first approximation of how large numbers of people are likely to behave in exchange transactions.

Over the last 10-15 years, however, a new school of economic analysis has emerged that challenges the rational choice model precisely on its predictive power. Empirical and laboratory work by cognitive psychologists and experimental economists has identified a growing number of anomalies in which behavior appears to systematically depart from that predicted by rational choice. Some of the more important examples of these decisionmaking biases include: ** Herd behavior: Why do lemmings leap off that cliff in Norway? What explains fads like Beanie Babies and Pokémon? Herd behavior occurs when a decisionmaker imitates the actions of others, while ignoring his own information and judgment with regard to the merits of the underlying decision. ** The status quo bias: All else being equal, decisionmakers favor maintaining the status quo rather than switching to some alternative state. The status quo bias can lead to market failure where decisionmakers' preference for the status quo perpetuates suboptimal practices. The extent to which behavioral economics calls into question more traditional modes of economic analysis remains sharply contested. At the very least, however, it seems clear that attention must be paid to the possibility that behavioral analysis sheds light on policy issues.

Richard Thaler is one of the foremost behavioral economists. In this (relatively) accessible introduction to this emerging literature, he collects (and revises) a series of articles he wrote for the Journal of Economic Perspectives. As such, there book reads more like an anthology than a coherent whole. Yet, each of the chapters is highly instructive. More important for the general reader, while the selections are all highly rigorous, Thaler steers clear of the sort of recreational mathematics that plagues so much of modern economics. Of particular interest to lay readers, I suspect, will be the chapters on investing. Thaler offers a highly insightful analysis of the various anomalies in capital market behavior that appear to be inconsistent with the standard economic assumptions built into the efficient capital markets hypothesis and the capital asset pricing model. In sum, a useful introduction to the literature.

50 of 53 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Economic behavior puzzles the experts June 8, 2000

By Mark Mills VINE™ VOICE

Format:Paperback

Much more fun to read than I expected. I am generally put off by economics books, but this one turned into a fascinating read.

The Winner's Curse lists a series of economic anomalies, the title being one of them. Thaler calls them anomalies since each defies 'classical' economic theory, generally the notion that markets are efficient and participants know what they are doing. Since few would accuse me of knowing what I'm doing when buying stocks, I find myself happily agreeing with Thaler's digs at Ivory tower economists.

The "winner's curse" anomaly is the notion that people who 'bid to win' at an auction, are often sorry that they won. My favorite anomalies included 'loss adversion' (we remember financial disasters, not successes), 'Intertemporal Choice' (our mental 'rate of return' analysis baffles the experts), 'the favorite factor' (yes, bet on the favorite!), and 'calendar effects' (forget about random walks down Wall Street).

27 of 28 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars How to make money in a pub? June 1, 2001

By fluzao

Format:Paperback

How rational are human beings or how close to the economic models do they act? This book is a collection of articles by Professor Thaler which shows that we quite usually don't behave like theory predicts. Thaler's extensive research (the references are 30 pages long) gives The Winner's Curse a great academic foundation, but its maths that can be skipped and easy language makes the book acessible - and enjoyable - for every one that is just interested in Economics. To sum up, if you are studying or working with Economics, you should read this book. It will help you to be skeptical about the theory - just like every scientist should be. If you are reading it just by curiosity, it will enhance your skills when your are talking about the economy at a local pub. Actually, The Winner's Curse teaches you how to make money even in a pub. It worths the money. It's an excellent book.