The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future [Hardcover]

Laurence C. Smith (Author)

Book Description

Release date: September 23, 2010

A vivid forecast of our planet in the year 2050 by a rising star in geoscience, distilling cutting-edge research into four global forces: demographic trends, natural resource demand, climate change, and globalization.

The world's population is exploding, wild species are vanishing, our environment is degrading, and the costs of resources from oil to water are going nowhere but up. So what kind of world are we leaving for our children and grandchildren? Geoscientist and Guggenheim fellow Laurence Smith draws on the latest global modeling research to construct a sweeping thought experiment on what our world will be like in 2050. The result is both good news and bad: Eight nations of the Arctic Rim (including the United States) will become increasingly prosperous, powerful, and politically stable, while those closer to the equator will face water shortages, aging populations, and crowded megacities sapped by the rising costs of energy and coastal flooding.

The World in 2050 combines the lessons of geography and history with state-of-the-art model projections and analytical data-everything from climate dynamics and resource stocks to age distributions and economic growth projections. But Smith offers more than a compendium of statistics and studies- he spent fifteen months traveling the Arctic Rim, collecting stories and insights that resonate throughout the book. It is an approach much like Jared Diamond took in Guns, Germs, and Steel and Collapse, a work of geoscientific investigation rich in the appreciation of human diversity.

Packed with stunning photographs, original maps, and informative tables, this is the most authoritative, balanced, and compelling account available of the world of challenges and opportunities that we will leave for our children.

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

Smith, a UCLA geography professor, explores megatrends through computer model projections to describe "with reasonable scientific credibility, what our world might look like in forty years' time, should things continue as they are now." Laying out "ground rules" for himself--including an assumption of incremental advances rather than big technology breakthroughs and no accounting for "hidden genies" such as a decades-long depression or meteorite impact--he identifies four global forces likely to determine our future: human population growth and migration; growing demand for control over such natural resource "services" as photosynthesis and bee pollination; globalization; and climate change. He sees the "New North" as "something like America in 1803, just after the Louisiana Purchase... harsh, dangerous, and ecologically fragile." Aside from his observations of "a profound return of autonomy and dignity to many aboriginal people" through increasing political power and integration into the global economy, Smith's predictions, limited by his conservative rules, are far from earthshaking, and suspending his rules for a chapter, he admits that "the physics of sliding glaciers and ice sheet collapses" as well as melting permafrost methane release are beyond current models, and that even globalization could reverse, with "political genies even harder to anticipate than permafrost ones."
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From Booklist

How will civilization change over the next 40 years if humanity balloons to nine billion, sea level rises by a foot and atmospheric temperature by several degrees, and globalization continues apace? From those assumptions, Smith, a university-employed geophysicist, posits answers with a focus on the Arctic Ocean and its coastline. Familiar with the Far North through scientific field trips, Smith embeds personal observations into his predictions about the effects of boreal warming. Becoming more accessible to ships, Arctic regions in Russia, Alaska, and Canada will experience a raw-materials bonanza, with oil, natural gas, minerals, and water resources likely to be exploited as permafrost melts and summer sea ice recedes. Festooned with data, his discussions of such prospects valuably avoid either environmental or industrial advocacy and lay a factual foundation for his readers to learn how demographic and economic trends in the world’s southerly population belts might influence development of the Arctic. Concluding with a half-dozen events that could upset his forecast, Smith exhibits trend-spotting skill in this readable account of the Arctic frontier. --Gilbert Taylor

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 336 pages
• Publisher: Dutton Adult; First Edition edition (September 23, 2010)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0525951814
• ISBN-13: 978-0525951810
• Product Dimensions: 9.2 x 6.4 x 1.1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (48 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #203,801 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Most Helpful Customer Reviews

27 of 31 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Do people want cold clear snow or wet mushy slush? October 17, 2010

By Theodore A. Rushton VINE™ VOICE

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase

In many ways this book reminds me of 'Popular Mechanix' magazine; filled with dazzling technological innovations of the future which are practical, inevitable, feasible and yet rarely happen.

Consider the internal combustion engine; invented in the 1870s, it took 40 years to develop the "horseless carriage" which, a century later, depends on the same basic engines. In the 1930s, the aviation industry learned how to move people in an aluminum tube with wings, much as railroads move people and goods in long metal boxes; the basic ideas are still used despite decades of 'Popular Mechanix' suggestions. In the 1960s, I attended seminars on computerized word processing; the advances since are due more to Moore's Law than to new concepts.

That said, Smith is far better than any 'Popular Mechanix' feature. But, he seems to leap too far too fast; human progress is incremental rather than any Great Leap Forward. Granted, I can endorse and encourage almost every element of this book; but, I have the nagging feeling a viable energy future may involve growing algae in the deserts instead of wearing mukluks in the snow.

Having lived just south of James Bay, where temperatures do drop to - 50 F degrees, I fully sympathize with the attraction of the far north. A century ago, Robert W. Service and Jack London wrote incomparable stories about arctic life. Yet, given the choice between wet mushy slush and pure driven icy snow, more Canadians prefer Toronto than the elegantly designed town of Kapuskasing, built by 'The New York Times.'

Fortunately, Smith cites the environmentalist's nightmare of the Athabasca Tar Sands, which is somewhat analogous to the coal-powered Four Corners Generating Station. The Environmental Protection Agency recently ordered an upgrade of pollution controls at the plant, because the plant creates as much pollution as found in the air in Phoenix. Someday, Canadians may become equally sensitive to remote regions which produce energy for far distant consumers.

In brief, this is a dynamic book about a bright future that could change the industrial world. The Arctic is one area where it might happen, perhaps even the most feasible. Smith shows the potential, if governments have the imagination to make it happen.

But then ... he didn't foresee the rise of the Tea Party movement and its desire to reduce government and get it out of economic development. The challenges ahead may be less than learning how to live in -50 F degree weather than in learning how to live with people who say "No!"

44 of 53 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Ten Things You Should Know About The World in 2050 November 3, 2010

By Rachel Bayles Lacey

Format:Hardcover

First - It will surprise you. Some of it is ground that's been covered, but it's put together in a fresh and useful way. It's like being told a great story by an old friend.

Second - Dr. Smith exhibits a sly sense of humor often missing in serious compilations of facts and figures. It creeps up on you slowly, gives you a couple of moments where you will actually laugh out loud, and then maintains a consistent twinkle. He does it without trying, which gives you the impression he can be trusted. His sense of humor accepts that some ludicrous things come to pass, and some things we think of as inevitable, never come close to happening.

Third - Viewing grain as water transfer. Enlightening.

Fourth - Considering the relationship between water and oil. Pretty damn enthralling, if you let it sink in.

Fifth - If you think about these ideas long enough, you will start to consider armageddony things. Yet the book will make you feel surprisingly optimistic.

Sixth - While this book just skims the surface, the ideas in it run the gamut of Yergin's "The Prize." This book could serve as an introduction to "The Prize: Part II." You can see the potential in the future of this story.

Seven - Dr. Smith does not assume technology will save us. Which is refreshing, and necessary. There is a strong feeling of realism in his account.

Eight - The book will spark your imagination more than Disney Land. It will help you fall in love with the North.

Nine - It will make you want to learn Norwegian.

Ten - You will be happy you hit the - Add to Cart - button.

16 of 19 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Go North young man! May 27, 2011

By Gaetan Lion TOP 1000 REVIEWER

Format:Hardcover

The author is a UCLA geography professor. His specialty is the geophysical impacts of climate change. And, he is a scientist member of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). His original intent when writing this book was to study such climate change impact at high Northern latitude. As he engaged into this investigation, his study became multi-dimensional as he realized there were many demographic, economic, and political issues worth studying. Thus, his resulting book addresses far more than climate change.

The author derives that our future is driven by two dominant forces: demographic growth and economic growth. Both will push upward our consumption of natural resources. And, this growth in resource consumption will butt against the constraints of resources availability.

Our demographic growth appears predictable. Relying on relevant data, the author anticipates by 2050 the World population will increase by 31% or from 7 billion currently to 9.2 billion. However, the urban component will nearly double from 3.5 to 6.4 billion. While the rural population will shrink from 3.5 to 2.8 billion. Population growth will be unevenly distributed and mainly concentrated in Third World countries. Many Third world cities will become gigantic. And, many of them will become unsustainable, chaotic, violent slums they already are today (example: Lagos in Nigeria projected to hold 16 million by 2025). Others may emerge as the next Singapore or Hong Kong.

Another predictable pattern is that the entire world is aging. Nations will incur rising dependency ratios with more retirees per actively employed individuals. This will strain fiscal solvency due to rising entitlement costs worldwide.

Economic growth is a huge multiplier of demographic growth in terms of resource consumption. The author mentions that if the entire developing world living standard rose to the West level material consumption would skyrocket. Let's say the US, EU, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Singapore combined have a population of 900 million. And, that the average living standard of those countries is 10 x greater than the remainder of the World (6.1 billion). If the remainder of the World catches up to the developed group, it would cause overall material consumption to increase by 4.6 times! Where would all the oil, water, food, metals come from to support such a worldwide high living standard?

That's where resource constraints kick in. He uses an interesting metric to capture that: Reserves of a given resources divided by yearly production or the R/P life index. For instance, oil has an R/P of only 42 years. That's why there is all the fuzz about Peak Oil. But, other critical resources have far shorter R/Ps. Those include many elements that are key to manufacturing our hi tech electronics (batteries, computers, screens, TVs, etc...). They include lead (R/P 22), nickel (21), silver (14), and indium only 8 years. Thus, how are we going to produce all our hi tech gear 40 years from now for a potentially far larger customer base?

The author indicates that this demographic & economic growth multiplier is a far stronger causal agent on our future than even climate change alone. That's even though the mentioned multiplier is also a cause of climate change.

Regarding resources constraints, the author pays special attention to: water. That's because the majority of the population growth will occur in developing countries who are already water stressed. They will be even more so in 2050. They will depend even more than currently on food imports for survival.

Water is not only essential for life on Earth, it is also essential for supporting energy production and industrial manufacturing. Without it, civilization grinds to a halt. This is why the author became extremely interested in the Northern latitudes (north of 45 degree).

The Northern Rim Countries (NORCs) include Northern Canada and US (Alaska), Norway, Sweden, Finland, part of Denmark, and much of Russia. This region has a very promising future on several counts. First, it will strongly benefit from climate change as the region is expected to warm substantially. The NORCs are anticipated to experience much sustainable population growth, economic development, and agricultural expansion. The NORCs also benefit from a ton of water resources that will soon be the next oil (the author calls it Blue Oil). It is likely that it will export water transfers down south through two means: one being export of foods (that the author calls virtual water trade) and the other through actual water projects (aqueducts, pipeline) as the US has already extensively developed throughout the West. Such projects linking Northern Canada to Southern Canada and the US are likely.

The NORCs have much more than water going for them. The area has huge unexploited oil reserves (Canada tar sands and Alaska North Slope) and natural gas reserves (Russia). And, the NORCs have much more than resources going for them. Those countries have economies that are very well integrated within our trading system. And, except for Russia, they are peaceful and provide much political freedom.

The NORCs represent a formidable economic region. Its GDP at $7 trillion (as defined on page 253) is half the US or the EU. It is 43% of the BRICs. And, although it is not a trading block like the EU, the NORCs have far more in common than the BRICs (that are either indifferent or antagonistic towards one another). It has also more in common than many European countries.

The NORCs (except for Russia) have empowered their respective aborigines populations through various land claims, mineral rights, treaties, and even independence (Greenland vs Denmark). See interesting map on page 212. Thus, as NORCs develop the local populations will strongly benefit. This is why for instance in Alaska, the natives are very much in favor of oil and gas exploration. The author makes a convincing case that such economic empowerment is far more enlightened than Russia's hypocritical effort to maintain their traditional way of life. That means enslaving them to a dire poverty while forbiding them from reaping any economic benefits from the land they live on.