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As to his unfounded assumptions:
1- All gay men are effeminate
2- Being effeminate is the same as being feminine (think about it, do you know any women who act like really effeminate gay guys? I think really effeminate gay guys are fabulous, but they're not really much like women)
3- Feminine behavior in kids who turn out to be transsexual is the same as feminine behavior in kids who turn out to be gay (Since Bailey believes that sexual orientation is inborn and accounts for feminine behavior in boys, he would seem to have a problem in explaining extremely feminine behavior in kids who grow up to be normal heterosexual males, who actually outnumber kids who were extremely feminine and turned out to be transsexuals, but that flaw in his theory, like so many others, seems to have passed him by)
4- Transsexuals who describe themselves and their history in ways which do not perfectly fit his model are always lying (this is not an inference, this is something he explicitly states)
5- The best place to find transsexuals is at gay bars
6- Transsexuals who work as prostitutes are representative of transsexuals generally (Reread that sentence and substitute "women" for "transsexuals")
As bad as this is, Bailey's research methodology is worse. The reductionism and assumptions we can understand, if not forgive, as simply being the way people like Bailey think. However, Bailey holds a PhD. He ought to know what is and isn't competent scientific methodology. What he presents in his studies is anything but. His study of so called "homosexual transsexuals" seems to rely entirely on prostitutes and people he met in gay bars. Most of them were people he met by being introduced to one subject's circle of friends, who then became his next subjects. This is a method of data collection commonly referred to as "snowball sampling." It is notoriously ineffective at producing reliable results. Since the people one obtains as survey subjects tend to run in the same circle, they are going to be far more like each other than random subjects from the population being studied will be. It's like if you want to survey political affiliation, and your first subject happens to belong to the Green party. You ask your subject to introduce you to other people to survey, and she gives you names of her friends, who are also Greens. Based on your results, you confidently predict the Green party will win the next presidential election in a landslide. Um, not likely. While snowball sampling is sometimes used with populations which are hard to locate, like transsexuals, results should ALWAYS be published with the disclaimer that there is no real way of knowing how well the data is representative of the actual population being studied. Bailey nowhere does this. Instead, he is absolutely dogmatic in his insistence that ALL transsexuals, 100%, with no exceptions whatsoever, fall into one of his two categories. Furthermore, according to Bailey, all transsexuals who fall into the "homosexual transsexual" category are essentially really effeminate gay men who, having difficulty attracting gay lovers, become women in order to fool straight men into having sex with them.
Then there's his other category. According to Bailey, all transsexuals, 100%, with no exceptions whatsoever, are either "homosexual transsexuals" or "autogynephilic transsexuals." Autogynephilic transsexuals are, according to Bailey, straight men who are so sexually obsessed with the image of themselves as women that they get sex changes in order to live out their sexual fantasy. Bailey appears to base this on a "study" of exactly one transvestite and one transsexual who was not feminine as a child and who at one point constructed an anatomically correct mannequin as a male love doll, plus his interpretation of Dr. Ray Blanchard's work. It is quite clear that Bailey has not approached this subject with an open mind. He has simply assumed Blanchard's work to be accurate and sought out an example to present to the public. He does not replicate Blanchard's findings, he does not even attempt to. Instead he assumes they are correct and goes looking for evidence to support his predetermined conclusion. Leaving aside the fact that Blanchard's work appears to suffer from the same reductionism and unfounded assumptions as Bailey's, Bailey further assumes that any transsexual who appears to fit the autogynephilic category but gives a history and understanding of herself inconsistent with the assumptions of the autogynephilic model is lying. So, Bailey has determined his conclusion at the outset and given himself a license to ignore contrary evidence. That is simply not science.
In the real world, transsexuals do not fit into these neat categories. There are transsexuals who transitioned young, were very feminine as children, pass with little effort, but are attracted to women. Many transsexuals whom Bailey would categorize as "homosexual" gave up relationships with men in order to transition. If Bailey's theory is correct, that should never happen. Bailey has a scale from 3 to -3 to determine if any given transsexual is homosexual or autogynephilic. Everyone who's 3 is homosexual, everyone who's -3 is autogynephilic, and ALL of us are one or the other. (...)
However, you do have to give him some admiration for the way he's constructed his case. If you fit into any "feminine" stereotypes, you're the misguided homosexual. If you don't fit into the feminine stereotypes, then you're the vagina fetishist. He's managed to create two opposing stereotypes which in his logic interlocks in a way that the denial of either is direct evidence that one is present in the other.
The fact that he tries to divide any sort of human behavior into two such simplistic categories should be enough to suspect the work. After all, gender is about as binary as one can get, but if it was that simple, there wouldn't be any transexuals and we wouldn't have this discussion. But it's a free country, make up your own mind: tens of thousands of transexuals and decades of research and practical psychological practice on one side and Mr Bailey on the other.
But then, who am I to criticize. In dealing with his critics, Bailey has invoked the last defense of the modern bigot: everyone who disagrees is a politically correct lunatic trying to censor him.