1 of 2 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars
Things Fall Apart, August 8, 2008
This review is from: Things Fall Apart: Containing the Spillover from an Iraqi Civil War (Paperback)
In Things Fall Apart, Byman and Pollack, both Washington policymakers now affiliated with the Brookings Institution, provide informed speculation on the local and regional fallout from an Iraqi civil war.
Their approach, while theoretical, is grounded in a sound knowledge of history. The authors first explore patterns of past civil wars, consequences of spillover, and policy options the U.S. government might have adopted to counter such trends. Then, they offer well-referenced case studies of other civil wars: Afghanistan, Congo, Lebanon, Somalia, and Yugoslavia, examining many of the same patterns and consequences.
For policymakers, the relevance of Things Fall Apart is in its recommendations should Iraq descend into civil war. Byman and Pollack advocate neither the picking of winners nor dumping the problem on the United Nations, which is ill-equipped to handle violent conflicts.
Nor, the authors argue, should Washington support the partition advocated by Senator Joseph Biden and former ambassador Peter Galbraith. Despite the sectarian and ethnic violence, the authors argue, Iraq's population remains sufficiently mixed that any partition would precipitate rather than resolve violence. In the event of all-out civil war, the authors recommend that Washington resist the temptation to intervene on humanitarian grounds in Iraq's population centers. Protecting cities takes a massive investment of troops, and as the U.N.'s Bosnia safe-haven experiment demonstrated, half-hearted interventions can tragically backfire.
Rather, the authors suggest that Washington should endeavor to stabilize the region in order to prevent spillover. This means making clear to Tehran what behavior it is unwilling to tolerate and persuading the Kurds that they should not declare independence, since secessionism can be infectious. The U.S. government might also offer incentives to neighboring states to prevent their intervention and impose sanctions on those who do. To facilitate diplomacy and better manage crises, Byman and Pollack recommend the establishment of a permanent contact group with officials from neighboring states. They acknowledge that the Pentagon will need to remain poised to strike at terrorist centers and might assist in creating refugee "spill basins," or safe havens, along Iraq's borders to contain refugee flow.
Well-researched and written, Things Fall Apart is a useful exercise in thinking one step ahead. Not all of Byman and Pollack's suggestions may be realistic: Their attitudes toward diplomacy can be Pollyannaish at times; they acknowledge that U.S. forces may need to undertake military action against Iranian meddling, but they do not explore what might happen if the Iranian government refuses to be intimidated.
Nevertheless, Things Fall Apart provides an invaluable framework from which policymakers across the political spectrum might begin to develop strategies to contain a collapsing Iraqi state.
Michael Rubin
Middle East Quarterly
Summer 2008
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0 of 1 people found the following review helpful:
3.0 out of 5 stars
Author of The Threatening Storm offers strategy for containing spillover, April 2, 2011
This review is from: Things Fall Apart: Containing the Spillover from an Iraqi Civil War (Paperback)
Any reader of this book should be aware that Pollack was one of the strategic advocates for the Iraq invasion.
This noted, Pollack & Byman presented a thoughtful outline of strategy for containing the potential of spill-over in the event that Iraq descends into civil war. Some of these assume a large foreign military in-country. As I write this review in 2011, I am relieved that two tactics employed by the Coalition -- the military surge and the Sunni 'awakening' succeeded. The passivity / prudence / patience of the elected coalition government of Iraq has helped to prevent civil war in Iraq, also. Whatever the reasons, this worst case did not occur.
Nevertheless, many of the international problems that ensue from civil war and tactics which would minimize negative / violent spill-over are drawn fron case-studies of countries which have endured civil war -- Lebanon, Afghanistan, Congo, Somalia, Chechnya etc.
Six spill-over conditions are described:
1) Refugees & uncontrolled migrations
2) Increased terrorism
3) Destabilization / Radicalization of neighboring states
4) Secession breeds Secessionism
5)Economic losses
6)Neighborly interventions
The authors offer about 12 tactics or policies which would minimize the spill-over of looming civil war in pre-surge Iraq.
The 6 issues analyzed and analyses of case-studies may prove insightful in the context of democracy-inspired revolutions now occurring throughout the Middle East & N. Africa.
We watch TV/internet accounts of these protests in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Syria & Lebanon, Yemen, Bahrain, Jordan, as well as the on-going unrest in Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran, with limited understanding of the history or consequences of these revolts.
I would encourage the authors to research and outline a strategy analysis for the context of impending escalation of civil war in Libya.
I will make these observations based upon my own travel experience and serious study of the 6 problems outlined in Things Fall Apart:
LIBYA Already The refugee problem is already difficult for Tunisia & its need for international aid is urgent. If Gaddfi is victorious, Egypt will get a flood of terrified refugees. Terrorism has not yet significantly occurred & most likely Gaddafi will be the perpetrator. Newly-spawned, the governments of Tunisia & Egypt are fragile.
Both could be easily destabilized. Both have suffered economic losses. Spillover into Tunisia is uncertain since Gaddafi is very unpredictable (except that he is merciless & ruthless). But Gaddafi may, perhaps already has, smuggled in mercenaries and supplies from sub-Saharan neighbors.
Given the lack of organization of the rebels, the prospect of a series of weak-to-failed states replacing Gaddafi's tyrannical outlaw state seems probable. Somalia is the worst case historical model.
Alternately, a long violent stalemate (like Lebanon-Syria-Israel-Palestinians of 1980s) is another worst-case outcome.
EGYPT & BAHRAIN On-going government attempts to change the face of the leadership but keep the military as it was.(& 'create' the appearance of democractic reform)
SYRIA The poor are discontent. Let's start a skirmish with Israel and redirect the angry attention of these young, frustrated poor students to a nationalistic goal -- get the Zionist monster! It doesn't appear to be working & I fear the Lebanese will most likely bear the brunt of unrest in Syria.
JORDAN & TUNISIA These are likely success stories of legitimate reform (if the Libyan spill-over doesn't destroy Tunisia). Syrian refugees would be a Lebanese & Jordanian de-stabilizing force (recall Black September).
IRAQ The extent of the protests and the relative peacefulness is an indication of the strength of Iraq's emerging democracy.
IRAN No one in the West will seriously get involved in Iranian internal affairs except covertly with the West's preoccupation with 'Arab Awakening', Iraq,Libya, Afghan.
In fact, this simultaneous series of uprisings may have effect of inward-turning for years as the new governments attempt to consolidate.
YEMEN Never been there and it's outcome will depend upon Arabian Peninsula rich states. Worst case -- Somalia pirates operate from both sides of the Horn.
AFGHAN. Do most Afghans think of themselves in nationalistic terms or is this merely a figment of Western imagination?
See my comments on SEEDS OF TERROR.
Since Taliban is financed by heroin, a morphine-based Poppies-FOR-Medicine scheme with Brazil,India, China, the West (& others in need of morphine) can help to implement a legitimate export crop / product. This may allow some bottom-up civil society-building -- village scale & indigenous tribes TO prosperous loya jirga confederation. But deep-pocketed, DNGOs (Drug-based non-govt. organizations), i.e., international mafias and drug cartels, will support druglords, Taliban, al Qaeda, or any pseudo-religious / pseudo-political rebel forces that maintain chaos and anarchy so long as the heroin trade is profitable and not interrupted.
Things Fall Apart provides a basic format for resolving problems which emerge from civil war as spill-over. In light of the 'Arab Awakening',Iraq, Libya,& Afghan., much of this analysis has value beyond its original agenda advocated specifically for Iraq.
In fact many of the tactics and issues described may prove useful as newly-formed governments attempt to consolidate gains and introduce reforms after recent simultaneous uprisings across the Arab World.. Many of these new regimes will be focused inward on domestic issues -- the process of democratic reforms and institution-building wiil take years. In nations where this is not the case, and civil war ensues, this study is even more relevant.
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0 of 3 people found the following review helpful:
3.0 out of 5 stars
Well-researched and written..., July 29, 2008
This review is from: Things Fall Apart: Containing the Spillover from an Iraqi Civil War (Paperback)
In Things Fall Apart, Byman and Pollack, both Washington policymakers now affiliated with the Brookings Institution, provide informed speculation on the local and regional fallout from an Iraqi civil war as Michael Rubin wrote in the Middle East Quarterly.
Their approach, while theoretical, is grounded in a sound knowledge of history. The authors first explore patterns of past civil wars, consequences of spillover, and policy options the U.S. government might have adopted to counter such trends. Then, they offer well-referenced case studies of other civil wars: Afghanistan, Congo, Lebanon, Somalia, and Yugoslavia, examining many of the same patterns and consequences.
For policymakers, the relevance of Things Fall Apart is in its recommendations should Iraq descend into civil war. Byman and Pollack advocate neither the picking of winners nor dumping the problem on the United Nations, which is ill-equipped to handle violent conflicts.
Nor, the authors argue, should Washington support the partition advocated by Senator Joseph Biden and former ambassador Peter Galbraith. Despite the sectarian and ethnic violence, the authors argue, Iraq's population remains sufficiently mixed that any partition would precipitate rather than resolve violence. In the event of all-out civil war, the authors recommend that Washington resist the temptation to intervene on humanitarian grounds in Iraq's population centers. Protecting cities takes a massive investment of troops, and as the U.N.'s Bosnia safe-haven experiment demonstrated, halfhearted interventions can tragically backfire.
Rather, the authors suggest that Washington should endeavor to stabilize the region in order to prevent spillover. This means making clear to Tehran what behavior it is unwilling to tolerate and persuading the Kurds that they should not declare independence, since secessionism can be infectious. The U.S. government might also offer incentives to neighboring states to prevent their intervention and impose sanctions on those who do. To facilitate diplomacy and better manage crises, Byman and Pollack recommend the establishment of a permanent contact group with officials from neighboring states. They acknowledge that the Pentagon will need to remain poised to strike at terrorist centers and might assist in creating refugee "spill basins," or safe havens, along Iraq's borders to contain refugee flow.
Well-researched and written, Things Fall Apart is a useful exercise in thinking one step ahead. Not all of the authors' suggestions may be realistic: Their attitudes toward diplomacy can be Pollyannaish at times; they acknowledge that U.S. forces may need to undertake military action against Iranian meddling, but they do not explore what might happen if the Iranian government refuses to be intimidated. Nevertheless, Things Fall Apart provides an invaluable framework from which policymakers across the political spectrum might begin to develop strategies to contain a collapsing Iraqi state.
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