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Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition Kindle Edition
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More About the Author
Learn more at www.michaelmauboussin.com.
Photo by Andrew Kist.
Top Customer Reviews
"No one wakes up thinking, "I am going to make bad decisions today." Yet we all make them." Think Twice outlines eight common mistakes, tries to help the reader recognize these in context, then provide ideas on how to mitigate your own tendency to repeat these same mistakes. Certain ideas recur throughout the text, including using data and models to inform decisions; viewing many real world situations as complex adaptive systems; as well as appreciating context and luck.
Each chapter focuses on one key error we make:
+Chapter 1: Viewing our problem as unique. Others have usually faced the same decisions we face and we can learn from their results to get to the right answer - for example in corporate M&A, you can look at how other similar deals have performed.
+Chapter 2: We fail to consider enough alternative options under pressure because we have models in our head that oversimplify the world; usually that helps us make quick decisions but often it causes us to leave out alternative choices which could be better. Incentives and unconscious anchoring on irrelevant information contribute to this tunnel vision.Read more ›
This book is about mistakes and bad decisions of smart people, business executives, doctors, and others. Many of the reasons all these people and professions make bad decisions, in part, is that we all have a similar framework of having the same mental software basics. This can and does lead to false beliefs and bad decisions due to mental traps as the author describes. These default false beliefs that we all have inherited prevent clear thinking. As the author continues to describe throughout the book, "To make good decisions, you frequently must think twice - and that is something our minds would rather not do."
The book is a nice enjoyable read, very clear with the necessary psychology jargon, and has a very nice set of notes to follow-up on if you would like. All in, though short, this book comes highly recommended for any bookshelf on how to make better decisions.
As a side note: I have pointed out in other reviews, of other books below, that are in the same genre and which are some of my favorites.Read more ›
Perhaps the best way to describe the content of the book is to summarize the key points, roughly in the order they appear in the book:
(1) "Think twice" to avoid errors in judgment and decision making, especially in situations where stakes are high.
(2) Learn from the experiences of others in similar situations (making use of statistics when possible), rather than relying only on your own perspective, and don't be excessively optimistic about expecting to beat the odds.
(3) Beware of anecdotal information, since it can paint a biased picture. Related to this point, don't infer patterns which don't exist, especially when the available data is limited, and avoid the bias of favoring evidence which supports your beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence (deliberately seek dissenting opinions if necessary).
(4) Avoid making decisions while at an emotional extreme (stress, anger, fear, anxiety, greed, euphoria, grief, etc.).
(5) Beware of how incentives, situational pressures, and the way choices are presented may consciously or subconsciously affect behavior and shape decisions.
(6) In areas where the track record of "experts" is poor (eg, in dealing with complex systems), rely on "the wisdom of crowds" instead.Read more ›
Most Recent Customer Reviews
This book is packed full of insights into the dysfunctional ways in which we think. It points to many other resources relevant to the topic and was a very valuable source in... Read morePublished 2 months ago by Amazon Customer
Great bootstrap on typical ways the way we make decisions can result in poor decisions. I found the accompanying stories useful as memory aids to recalling the things the book... Read morePublished 4 months ago by Guy Winterbotham
Very interesting book written in an entertaining manner. Must read!Published 4 months ago by tarun pal
Mauboussian's book is a fun read and well done.
He will get you thinking and hopefully get you to slow your decision making to prevent long lasting errors.
This is a thought-provoking book, supposedly a business book but one that offers insights to people like me who only have to make the decisions of everyday life. Read morePublished 9 months ago by BPB
Amazing read with powerful tools to use today if not yesterday. Ideas that we all intuitively know but were afraid to ask.Published 9 months ago by Arek
I borrowed this book title and some of the author's advice in a speech to accounting students. My speech title was Think Twice ... Read morePublished 15 months ago by T. Pryor
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