492 of 540 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
This is how you think, October 25, 2011
This review is from: Thinking, Fast and Slow (Hardcover)
Daniel Kahneman may have won his Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, but his work was psychological in nature as it challenged the rational model of judgment and decision-making. He's considered one of the most important psychologists alive today, and this book doesn't disappoint with its breakthrough approach to understanding the "machinery of the mind."
Kahneman introduces two mental systems, one that is fast and the other slow. Together they shape our impressions of the world around us and help us make choices. System 1 is largely unconscious and it makes snap judgments based upon our memory of similar events and our emotions. System 2 is painfully slow, and is the process by which we consciously check the facts and think carefully and rationally. Problem is, System 2 is easily distracted and hard to engage, and System 1 is wrong as often as it is right. System 1 is easily swayed by our emotions. Examples he cites include the fact that pro golfers are more accurate when putting for par than they are for birdie (regardless of distance), and people buy more cans of soup when there's a sign on the display that says "Limit 12 per customer."
There are lots of interesting anecdotes as well as layman's summaries of psychological research that will leave you feeling fascinated by the brain. The book has 38 chapters broken into five sections. I've listed some of the chapter titles for each section to give you a feel for what it's about:
PART ONE - TWO SYSTEMS
1. The Characters of the Story
2. Attention and Effort
3. The Lazy Controller
4. A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions
5. How Judgments Happen
PART TWO - HEURISTICS AND BIASES
6. The Law of Small Numbers
7. Availability, Emotion, and Risk
8. Tom W's Specialty
9. Linda: Less is More
10. Causes Trump Statistics
11. Taming Intuitive Predictions
PART THREE - OVERCONFIDENCE
12. The Illusion of Understanding
13. The Illusion of Vanity
14. Intuitions Vs. Formulas
15. Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It?
PART FOUR - CHOICES
16. Prospect Theory
17. Bad Events
18. Risk Policies
19. Keeping Score
PART FIVE - TWO SELVES
20. Life as a Story
21. Experienced Well-Being
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342 of 375 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
A Gold Mine of Behavioral Research., October 25, 2011
This review is from: Thinking, Fast and Slow (Hardcover)
Daniel Kahneman, the author of this exceptional book, and Amos Tversky (who died in 1996) made economics and other disciplines a lot more realistic--and tougher--for economists, researchers and students. Prior to their work, economists and others maintained classical theories and explanations that relied on certain seemingly logical assumptions about human behavior. However, people don't always behave the way logic might suggest, for a variety of reasons that Kahneman (and Tversky) explained, starting in the 1970s. Today, the subject of behavioral decision-making is one of the more exciting ones in fields like economics, finance, medicine and even law, thanks to their pioneering work. In recognition of the impact of his work in economics, Kahneman, a cognitive psychologist and professor emeritus at Princeton, won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002, specifically for his work on prospect theory.
The title of this book comes from Kahneman's discussion of two simple models of how people think. "System 1" thinking corresponds to fast, intuitive, emotional and almost automatic decisions, though it sometimes leaves us at the mercy of our human biases. "System 2" thinking is more slow-going and requires more intellectual effort. To nobody's surprise, we humans are more likely to rely on System 1 thinking, because it saves us effort, even if it can lead to flawed thinking. Here is a quick way Kahneman uses to illustrate System 1 and System 2 thinking. Suppose that a bat and ball together cost $1.10 and that the bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? Many people, relying mainly on System 1 thinking, will quickly say $0.10, but the correct answer is five cents. Think about it.
One of the book's main themes is the author's description of how little control we actually have over our own System 1 responses and the degree to which our subconscious intuition and biases affect System 1 choices. It's amazinging to me how much of our lives seems to run on System 1 autopilot. Of course, forewarned is forearmed, which another important theme. Basically, this book provides the reader an impressive overview of many key concepts in behavioral research, with lots of illuminating stories from Kahneman's work and experiences. Before you know it, you may find "heuristic" (a rule of thumb) working its way into your conversations.
I will expand on one of the book's chapters ("The Law of Small Numbers") to illustrate some of Kaneman's analysis. Suppose you learn that out of more than 3,000 counties in the United States, the incidence of kidney cancer is lowest in mostly rural, sparsely populated counties in the Midwest, the South, and the West. Before you are tempted to try to explain the lower cancer rates on some elements of rural living, you should realize that the highest rates of kidney cancer are also found in (other) rural, sparsely populated counties in those same states. The reason for these seemingly contradictory results is that the small sample sizes of kidney cancer in sparsely populated counties allow for widely varying cancer rates. Put differently, if the Law of Large Numbers says the average results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value (of cancer rates, or whatever), then the Law of Small Numbers says that the smaller the sample size you deal with, the greater the chance of obtaining results that are further from the overall expected value. The low cancer rates in some counties turn out to be artifacts, not statistically systematic results.
Here is one final example from Kahneman's work of some of the concepts the reader will encounter in this book. Suppose that Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. In college, she majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with the issues of discrimination and social justice, and she also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Which is more probable?
1. Linda is a bank teller.
2. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
According to Kahneman, about 85% - 90% of undergraduates at several major universities chose the second option, that Linda was a bank teller and active in the feminist movement. However, this is an example of the "conjunction fallacy," since the probability of two events occurring together (in conjunction) must necessarily be less than the probability of either event occurring alone. Put simpler, the probability that Linda is a bank teller must be greater than the probability that she is a bank teller and active in feminist causes. (To be complete, Kahneman points out that there are critics of the Linda experiment who, for example, question whether it is reasonable for test subjects to understand the word "probability" as if it meant "plausibility.")
Okay, you hopefully have an idea about some of the ground covered in this book. If behavioral research interests you, this book merits your attention. I should also mention that there is blessedly little technical jargon in the book, so if you are new to the field of behavioral research you should be able to enjoy the book. Indeed, I think most people will get a lot from it.
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