Thirteen Keys to the Presidency [Paperback]

Allan Lichtman (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0819187518 | ISBN-13: 978-0819187512 | Publication Date: November 9, 1992

The revolutionary system that reveals how presidential elections really work from the civil war to the 21st century. As controversial as it is compelling this book fundamentally alters our understanding of presidential politics.

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

This intriguing study offers a radical system for determining in advance the winners of American presidential elections, a system integrating historical analysis and mathematical pattern-recognition methods. Examining the circumstances surrounding past elections, Lichtman and DeCell disclose a remarkably consistent set of factors or "keys," which, they believe, can accurately predict outcomes. Describing how the keys were utilized in 1984 and '88, the authors apply the methodology to every presidential election from 1860 on, demonstrating how the same keys appear to account for the major themes and events of 33 consecutive elections. They also discuss misconceptions of presidential politics that their system brings into focus. Lichtman is a history professor at American University in Washington, D.C.; DeCell is an editor at Washingtonian magazine.
Copyright 1990 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

From Library Journal

Expanding on his 1980 theory, Lichtman (history, American Univ.) and DeCell, senior editor of The Washingtonian magazine, discuss 13 historical factors (four political "keys," seven performance "keys," and two personality "keys") that they have used to determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological application of these "keys" to the 33 elections since 1860, the authors dispel much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenge many traditional assumptions. In terms of the theory's early predictive success, comparative method, and the likely controversy that it will generate, the book recalls James David Barber's classic Presidential Character: Predicting Performances in the White House (Prentice Hall, 1985. 3d ed.). While Barber uses psychology to predict the mental health of presidential candidates, Lichtman and DeCell rely on history to predict the winner months before the November election. Whether this is science or sorcery, informed citizens are presented with an entertaining and alternative method to those omnipresent pollsters.
- William D. Pederson, Louisiana State Univ., Shreveport
Copyright 1990 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Product Details

• Paperback: 449 pages
• Publisher: Madison Books (November 9, 1992)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0819187518
• ISBN-13: 978-0819187512
• Product Dimensions: 8.8 x 5.7 x 1.2 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.4 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,090,312 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Most Helpful Customer Reviews

6 of 6 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Putting the talking heads out of a job, May 11, 2000

By 

Todd Winer - See all my reviews

This review is from: Thirteen Keys to the Presidency (Paperback)

Is it possible to know the results of a presidential elections months, even a year or two, in advance? According to these authors, the answer is "yes" and their method is revealed in this book. The Thirteen Keys are a simple list of qualifications that the incumbent party must meet to retain control of the White House. If the incumbent party loses six or more keys, its candidate is destined for defeat in November. The authors have credibility because their book illustrates how the keys have worked in every election since the Civil War. They predicted George Bush's victory in the early spring when Michael Dukakis held a double-digit lead in the polls. They foresaw the electoral strength and resiliency of Bill Clinton. What makes the Thirteen Keys especially intriguing is that they make media strategies, electoral college maps, and vice-presidential picks irrelevant. In making each election a referendum on the past four years, the keys not only confirm common sense, they also redeem the integrity of the regular voter. Ronald Reagan didn't win in 1980 or earn re-election because of his acting skills. Nor could George Bush have been saved in 1992 by a superior campaign. The message of the keys is: "Performance counts." Looking ahead to 2000 has to bring a smile to Democrats. Using the keys, it is hard to envision a scenario other than a Gore victory in November. Whether that's good news or bad news is up to the reader.

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Sensible and Prophetic, March 8, 2005

By 

K.A.Goldberg (Chicago) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Thirteen Keys to the Presidency (Paperback)

This book shows readers how to correctly predict the winner of an upcoming U.S. Presidential Election. The authors developed 13 True/False questions (Keys) on the U.S. economy, foreign policy, and other political matters. They then apply these 13 Keys to every Presidential contest from the start of the two-party system in the 1850's up through modern times. Readers see that whenever eight (8) or more Keys are true on Election Day, the candidate of the party holding the White House has won the popular vote. Whenever fewer than eight Keys are true, the challenger triumphed. Unfortunately, the Keys only predict popular vote, and on three different occasions (1876, 1888, 2000) the candidate with the most popular votes still lost in the Electoral College. Nevertheless, the 13 Keys correspond with the popular vote winner in every Presidential election from 1860 (Lincoln over Douglas/Breckenridge) through 1988 (Bush Sr. over Dukakis), the last contest before this book was published. And at this (updated) writing the Keys remain true, having forecast popular vote wins by Bill Clinton (1992 & 1996), Al Gore (2000), George W. Bush (2004) and Barack Obama (2008) - that's 37 straight elections!

Authors Allan Litchman and Ken DeCell make a strong case that their 13 Keys are vital, while arguing that campaigns are largely irrelevant - a claim some will no doubt debate. Regardless of your view, THE THIRTEEN KEYS is a valuable and prophetic read.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars The Thirteen Keys are perfect!!, April 20, 2010

By 

Terrond Green (East Hartford, CT,USA) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: Thirteen Keys to the Presidency (Paperback)

The Keys to the Presidency is a perfect formula on perdicting U.S. Presidential elections. Even at this date spring of 2010 when the gop is boasting of huge potential huge gains in the 2010 mid-term elections President Obama is in strong position to win a second term in 2012. he has good amount of keys locked up in his favor already at this early date. his 2010 losses will be his 2012 gain according to the keys.