The Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq (Hardcover)

by Kenneth M. Pollack (Author) "As best we can tell, Iraq was not involved in the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001..." (more)
Key Phrases: frontline infantry divisions, covert action campaign, containment regime, United States, Gulf War, United Nations (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Review
"One of the most important books on American foreign policy in years. There is no greater strategic challenge than Iraq, and nobody better qualified to tackle it than Kenneth Pollack. To have such comprehensive, high-quality professional analysis available publicly and in real time is simply extraordinary. From now on, all serious debate over how to handle Saddam starts here."
-Gideon Rose, Managing Editor, Foreign Affairs

"Iraq is at the top of America's foreign policy agenda and this book should be at the top of your reading list. Kenneth Pollack approaches the problem of Saddam Hussein without ideological blinkers or prejudices. He provides an clear-eyed account of the breakdown of American policy toward Saddam Hussein and makes a powerful case for a shift in that policy. Whether or not you agree with Pollack's solution -- and I do -- you will admire The Threatening Storm. It is intelligent, balanced, and measured; a model of fair-minded analysis on a topic that rarely gets any. Before you make up your mind on Iraq, read this book."
-Fareed Zakaria, editor of Newsweek International

" Kenneth Pollack has brilliantly written a comprehensive and insightful analysis of the problem Iraq poses for the United States. This is a must read for those desiring an in depth understanding of the issues in this complex problem and for those who are responsible for developing policy."
-General Anthony C. Zinni, USMC (Ret.) -- Review

Review
"One of the most important books on American foreign policy in years. There is no greater strategic challenge than Iraq, and nobody better qualified to tackle it than Kenneth Pollack. To have such comprehensive, high-quality professional analysis available publicly and in real time is simply extraordinary. From now on, all serious debate over how to handle Saddam starts here."
-Gideon Rose, Managing Editor, Foreign Affairs

"Iraq is at the top of America's foreign policy agenda and this book should be at the top of your reading list. Kenneth Pollack approaches the problem of Saddam Hussein without ideological blinkers or prejudices. He provides an clear-eyed account of the breakdown of American policy toward Saddam Hussein and makes a powerful case for a shift in that policy. Whether or not you agree with Pollack's solution -- and I do -- you will admire The Threatening Storm. It is intelligent, balanced, and measured; a model of fair-minded analysis on a topic that rarely gets any. Before you make up your mind on Iraq, read this book."
-Fareed Zakaria, editor of Newsweek International

" Kenneth Pollack has brilliantly written a comprehensive and insightful analysis of the problem Iraq poses for the United States. This is a must read for those desiring an in depth understanding of the issues in this complex problem and for those who are responsible for developing policy."
-General Anthony C. Zinni, USMC (Ret.)

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 528 pages
• Publisher: Random House; 1 edition (September 18, 2002)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0375509283
• ISBN-13: 978-0375509285
• Product Dimensions: 9.5 x 6.3 x 1.7 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.9 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 3.7 out of 5 stars See all reviews (88 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #599,979 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

37 of 41 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Essential Reading for the Public Debate, October 27, 2002

By	"krchicago" (Chicago, IL United States) - See all my reviews

Kenneth Pollack has provided essential background reading for every member of the public who wants to have an intelligent opinion on the question of what we should do about Iraq. If you're like me, you have a hard time remembering who did what to whom when and why it matters -- and the first section of "The Threatening Storm" is devoted to a brief (100 pages) summary of Iraqi history, from colonial government through Saddam's rise to power, US relations with Iraq, the Iran-Iraq war, the Gulf War and the tortured history of the UN sanctions. If you read only this much, you will at least understand why the containment/sanctions regime has failed (and has no realistic chance of being revived in any productive form).

The second section of the book (another 100 pages) gives an overview of the situation today -- the massive police state run by Saddam, the nature of the threat he poses, and what other Persian Gulf states (and others in the area and in Europe) think of his regime. The description of Saddam's repressive policies and the threat he poses are both chilling (both more realistic and more scary than anything I have heard from our current Administration). The country-by-country overview of current attitudes toward Iraq and what US policy should be was particularly fascinating. Pollack carefully proceeds through each country, explaining their own particular interests in and policies toward Iraq, and how they wish the US to act. This section provides some very interesting perspectives that I have not seen elsewhere in the popular media, particularly on Jordanian, Syrian and Turkish interests.

In the final 200 pages, Pollack turns to an analysis of US policy options. He carefully reviews all of the options, assessing their feasibility (the stumbling block of any renewed sanctions regime and of covert operations) and weighing the arguments pro and con. Pollack convinces me that the only real options are a fall back to "pure" deterrence (consisting of lifting the remaining sanctions, allowing Saddam to rebuild his military strength and eventually (soon) acquire nuclear weapons, while relying on the threat of US military intervention should he attempt to act beyond his own borders) or a full-scale invasion to remove Saddam and rebuild Iraq. As between deterrence and invasion, I wish that I could say that I think deterrence will work. I'm not excited about the US going to war -- ever -- and particularly not without an immediate provocation. I started this book looking to pick holes in the argument. But I have to confess that Pollack has convinced me that deterrence poses too many risks. Our Cold War deterrence of the Soviet Union is often cited as an example -- but what we deterred the USSR from doing was attacking the US. We did not deter them from Berlin or Prague or Afghanistan, nor did we keep them from meddling in any number of African, Asian and South American countries. Instead, Soviet nuclear weapons deterred *us* from intervening. Once Saddam acquires nuclear weapons, will we really risk a nuclear attack on the Saudi oil fields or Tel Aviv in order to defend Kuwait? Even if Saddam does not invade Kuwait, he will have the economic and military power to make other Gulf states bend to his will, and could wind up effectively controlling a substantial share of the world's oil supply, with potentially devastating economic effects. By comparison to these risks, the costs of war, high though they may be, seem amply justified.

On the other hand, I also think that Pollack underestimates some of the problems associated with invasion. First, he more or less dismisses the need for a legal justification for invasion, saying it would be better if we had one, but it is not essential. I think that many Americans and most of our allies (in the Middle East and elsewhere) will find it hard to support any war that does not have an adequate legal cause. In the absence of overt provocation by Iraq, we at least need a United Nations mandate behind us. How can we call others "rogue states," if we ourselves act without an international consensus behind us? Second, Pollack makes a persuasive case that we can invade only with the support of the Saudis and other Gulf states, who will support us only if the Israeli-Palestinian dispute is at least quiet. That hardly seems likely in the near future. If invasion also turns out not to be feasible, we may be left with no option but deterrence. At least having read "The Threatening Storm," I now know what risks that entails.

Pollack is eminently well-qualified to write about Iraq, having served in the CIA and the National Security Council during the first Bush and the Clinton administrations. He writes well and provides enough detail to make his arguments compelling without bogging down in military detail. He gives all arguments a fair treatment, acknowledges that the costs of invasion will be high and vigorously advocates a rebuilding of the Iraqi state and economy as an essential element of any invasion policy. Nation-building is not Pollack's area of specialty, which shows in his chapter on reconstruction and probably makes him overly optimistic about what reconstruction will cost, its prospects for building a prosperous and stable Iraq, and its potential to rehabilitate the US in the eyes of the popular Arab world. Nevertheless, his point -- that it would be foolish for us to incur the cost of toppling one destabilizing regime only to allow chaos or another unstable regime to take its place -- is well taken, and undoubtedly other resources can fill in the nation-building picture.

Highly recommended to all who wish to have an informed opinion in the debate on Iraq.

37 of 41 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Another Perspective, October 25, 2002

By	Kelly Cooper (Chicago, Illinois) - See all my reviews

If the current administration expects to galvanize Americans to support a full-scale military invasion of Iraq, this book will prove indispensable to that effort. As a liberal democrat, I had no intention of reading this book because I assumed (erroneously) that it was no more than an insidious cocktail of Bush hagiography, right-wing invective, and knee-jerk patriotism. I was completely wrong. This book is simply remarkable. My opinion of George W. Bush is still what it was (very low), but Pollack has shown me that even a broken watch is right twice a day. Unfortunately, people tend to gravitate toward material which supports previously held opinions. I fear that Pollack's book will be championed by those already in lock-step with other administration sycophants (i.e., Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh, Peggy Noonan). This book is too good for that sad fate and it would be a colossal mistake to relegate its readership to the choir.

42 of 48 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars the strongest case for invasion that i've read, October 28, 2002

By	Neil K. Banman (Portland, OR United States) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

I was opposed to an invasion of Iraq prior to reading this book, and I still am--barely. Dr. Pollack makes an excellent case for invasion, much better than the Bush administration or Congress has been able to do. He certainly disagrees with a number of things that our leadership wants us to believe. For instance, that Iraq has anything to do with 9/11.

Pollack's argument is that no policy except invasion will keep Saddam Hussein from acquiring nuclear weapons. He contends that Hussein is a uniquely dangerous person to have access to nuclear weapons, moreso even than other totalitarian leaders. He's got good reasons for both, and while I have a few reservations with some of the details, on the whole it's quite sound.

Pollack should definitely have spent more time on some topics. For instance, I don't think he adequately addresses the effect of world-wide opposition to Iraqi invasion and how that compromises our standing in the world and specifically the Middle-East.

He also constantly refers to the "perfidy" of China, France and Russia, and I don't think he makes a strong enough case that these countries are wholly corrupt. Sure, they're acting in their own interests, but the US does this all the time. I think in this case he is speaking from the point of view as a policy analyst who has been frustrated for a decade, and has written these countries off. I don't think we should ever do that, and I don't think we've exhausted our diplomatic options.

His case for invasion is very well thought out, and as such he is cognizant of many potential traps and pitfalls. So he writes a prescription for invasion that is extremely specific, and admits that straying could well lead to disaster. His conditions for invasion include: international support (which we don't have much of), domestic support (which is diminishing every day), a large invasion force (costly in our time of recession), and a long and extensive nation-building effort (under a US President who has expressly and repeatedly stated that the US should stay out of nation-building. So even if it might be right to invade in principle (debatable), invasion is a recipe for disaster. Just great.

This book is definitely essential reading for anyone who is interested in whether or not invasion is the best way to go. If nothing else, it'll give you reasons to believe that invasion might be the right thing to do, instead of just a bold and outrageous exercise in American empire-building (which it still could well be, especially given the lies we hear from the administration every day). And it will also make you aware of the dangers incumbent with any policy we take. Truly, these are dangerous times we live in.

As a footnote, I wish Pollack would have spent a few pages on the big picture. For instance, he was on Fresh Air a few weeks ago and mentioned that he thinks there should be a more progressive energy policy to wean our country away from oil. Also he does not spend much time talking about the history of American foreign policy, which I think would be useful in evaluating how the US is viewed by the international community and the Arab world.