Customer Reviews

Tiger That Isn't

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Michael Blastland and Andrew Dilnot give examples from the UK, many from the British health care system, of statistics that deceive and alarm people in their book: The Tiger That Isn't.
The average reader may gain common sense techniques to help unpick the worst governmental, journalistic and statistical whitewashes from the book. Alternatively, questions raised on such basic issues as the average income and unemployment may make readers mistrust all and any statistics. A third type of reader may use the suggested techniques to discredit any statistic that is disagreeable to them. Finally, the over simplified methods may be patronizing to an educated reader.
It's an interesting book, but it could be regarded as a beginner's statistical cautionary tale and left at that.

"I think numbers are the best way to represent the world's uncertainties", "I see numbers, I question them and I can interpret them for the less numerate", "I see numbers and I freeze". These three possible options are based on a rough categorisation of the attitudes I have seen towards numbers. Depending on my mood, they can amuse me or cause me despair.

In fact, I believe that, with the right degree of scepticism, and a willingness and an ability to question numbers both in absolute and relative terms, it is possible for everyone to make sense of numbers thrown at us every day. That is pretty much the premise - and the promise - of The Tiger That Isn't: Seeing Through A World of Numbers, by the journalist Michael Blastland and Andrew Dilnot, an Oxford Don. The book delivers brilliantly on the premise and the promise.

The introduction of the book says, rightly, that it is written from the point of view of the consumers of numbers; in fact, it is written for the consumers of numbers, which means people like you and me. Each chapter presents some examples that illustrate a typical problem with comprehending numbers, and then proceeds to demonstrate how to see those numbers in context and how to make sense of them. There are, in addition to the introduction, eleven chapters dealing with numbers-related issues including Size, Chance, Averages, Risk (my personal favourite), Data (my favourite heading in this book "Know the Unknowns") and Causation. While most of the examples are British - understandably because both authors are British - it is not difficult for the reader to apply the 'lessons' to numbers being bandied about in his or her own country.

Aimed at the non-numerate reader, the tone of the book is easy, the language accessible, the explanations lucid. Yet the book is not patronising in the least, which, in my book, is a considerable achievement in explaining apparently complex things. At 184 pages in all, it is not a hugely difficult read; the section on Further Reading will serve those, whose curiosities are piqued and whose courage with numbers restored on reading this book.

Reviewing this book is not easy. I could summarise all chapters for you, but it would be pointless. Yet not saying much about the contents of the individual chapters may make the review meaningless. It is worth every bit of the 90 minutes or so you will spend on it.

Usefulness note: I am known for buying books as presents for friends of all ages. This book would make an ideal present for a curious teenager, as well as those adults who have let 10 simple symbols terrify them for years. For younger readers, I would suggest conversations around the themes of the chapters so that they can get a feel for the numbers being bandied about.

"We all know more than we think we do" is the first line of this book. The authors are reassuring the reader that there is no need to be afraid of numbers, despite how confusingly figures and statistics are often presented, particularly by politicians and the press. In terms of presenting numbers, this is about the meaning ascribed to numbers rather than how they are displayed visually.

But if we reverse that first line - "we think we know more than we do" - we are all guilty of that too. The many practical examples of how numbers are misinterpreted, both accidentally and deliberately, ring true with personal experience. Don't be afraid, be very afraid! However, this book isn't about beancounter-bashing but is an affirmation of the value of numbers when handled with care and humility.

This is a very simple book and anyone who studied economics or mathematics to a reasonable level will (think they) know it all. For the rest of us, this is catch-up time! Fortunately, there are hardly any numbers in the book and it is more about analysing real-life examples, including well-known news stories about climate change, speed cameras, school league tables, health scares and other topics. In that way, "The Tiger That Isn't" is in a similar vein to other recent popular economics books like Freakonomics or Fooled by Randomness, albeit less sensational than the former and more accessible than the latter.

The twelve chapters each show a different way to spot and avoid the abuse of numbers - there is a one page summary at the back of the book that is shorter and more informative than this review!