Customer Reviews

Timing the Real Estate Market

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4 star:		(4)
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1 star:		(1)

 

 

Mr. Campbell has written a clear, easy-to-read, and concise book on how to time your local real estate market so you can know when to buy or sell for the most profit. However, following the steps in his book will require that you spend some time and energy locating and tracking the 5 monthly statistics for your market which need to be tracked in order for you to tell when you are at a market peak (time to sell), or a market bottom (time to buy): Existing home sales, building permits, foreclosures, interest rates, etc. must all be tracked if you are going to follow what he calls The Campbell Method. Still, if you're serious about saving or making tens of thousands of dollars which are readily available to anyone willing to take the time, you'll do what he says.

Robert Campbell has produced a unique work in the area of real estate books. While there are a lot of books that concentrate on purchasing in the right location and at the right price, this is the first one that points out the right location is of no help if the real estate market is in a downturn. "Timing the Real Estate Market" looks at the real estate market in a perspective similar to stocks, bonds and other investment vehicles. From this perspective there are cycles where prices rise and fall. The author examines not only the cycles of the past but the indicators that preceded each event. Using these "vital signs" he walks you through case studies on how to determine when to buy and when to sell. Finally, Robert Campbell discusses the ten cardinal rules of the system so that you can't go wrong. If you are planning to invest in real estate you owe it to yourself to purchase this book so you understand the trends and how they affect real estate ups and downs. After you have read this book and understand when the market is in an upswing, get one of the other books that discuss location and other important factors so you can get added return by buying the right piece of property.

This is an excellent book on learning the ins and outs of Real Estate Market Timing. It is informative, practical, and highly usable. Not only did it do a fantastic job of explaining the nuances of the Real Estate Boom-Bust cycle, but also more importantly it teaches you how to construct your own market charting indicators that are based on real estate "vital signs" which the author had done extensive research on. Moreover, the book also points out the common investment mistakes people make and offers plenty of explanations of early warning signs that any astute real estate investor would want to be aware of. This book is a must read for those who want to get a true feel of what the real estate market is telling you and then profit from it. Highly recommend!

This book has turned me into a "believer"! At first I thought this book must have been written for the "homeowner" making the biggest investment of his life, and/or the institutional type of investment funds.

Once I got into the book I began to realize that it was also for the "small potatoes" kind of individual investor. The type of individual investor who has the goal of "making money when you buy" or "make the money going into the deal". While this is a commendable goal, I can now see where profits can be made if one ALSO becomes friends with the trends. It's really quite valuable to know "exactly" the right time to buy or sell. This book goes into great detail on this concept.

And the book shows how to gauge the Real Estate market for maximum profits, in a "step by step" manner.

Campbell also illustrates the reasons for the trends, and the psychology behind the changes of direction, which I believe applies to ALL markets.

"Timing the Real Estate Market" shows how to be the "creator" of the "inside information" that it seems investors are always seeking.

The four stages of Real Estate cycles and the 5 vital sign indicators are clearly explained, as are the 10 cardinal rules of the timing system.

I am very impressed with Robert Campbell. Both with his accomplishments and his clearly understood method of timing the Real Estate market.

I give this one a definite "thumbs up"!

Brad Crouch

The best thing that I can say about this book is that it is one of the few books on an important topic.

The book describes "The Campbell Method" of real estate timing and it's application to the San Diego market. Although Mr. Campbell claims that he had "mathematical proof" [p48] that the market gives clear signals about it's impending changes, this proof is not provided to us. We only see the method applied sloppily to the San Diego market with no attempt to validate it against other markets.

Even it's application to San Diego is littered with mistakes and incomplete information. For example, in chapter 7 we are told "early 1997... was about 6-12 months after Vital Signs #1 through #3 gave 'buy signals'..." [p94] but the chart for Vital Sign #3 does not signal until April 1997. Nowhere in the whole book are we shown a chart that shows price trends - we are to take Mr. Campbell's word that the vital sign's signals in fact lead price changes.

Other problems:
* This book does not properly address the costs of buying and selling in it's discussion of timing
* A "real estate crash index" blend is introduced but never properly defined [p49]
* Buy and sell decisions are made in a way that lacks hysteresis - a series of buy and sell signals can occur batched closely together as a result
* Page 32 has an unclear example where a homeowner sells their home but the text later treats the sale as if the homeowner had given their lender their deed in lieu of foreclosure
* The appendix uses a '12 month exponential moving average' rather than a '12 month moving average'. No proper explanation is provided for what a '12 month exponential moving average' is or why it is used here
* The appendix is 40 pages of unnecessary tables. This should be trimmed down to just a few pages. Mr. Campbell can provide the full data on his website.

This is a excellent book. The use of oscillators to fine tune buying real estate was a first for me. I am a futures trader so using charts and oscillators makes sence to me. Robert Campbell makes it easy reading for anyone. Here in Australia some of the data Robert uses is unavailable so we have to modifiy it a bit. In the USA I think it would be the best way to go about buying real estate.Timing any market is of the essence and Robert has wrote a extremely useful book on the subject.Robert takes a hard subject and makes it easy to understand a sign of a gifted author.
I would rate this book 10/10. If you are interested in real estate you should buy this book.

First off, I just want to say that this is a wonderful book and has some really great concepts.

The essence of "Timing the Real Estate Market" is stated on page 6: "The Campbell Method asks you to look at the market objectively, not emotionally. It requires you to step away from your own personal beliefs, opinions and biases about what you would like the market to do, and focus instead on what the market is telling you to do."

Brilliant...this is not just great real estate investing advice...this is great investing advice...period.

Mr. Campbell went on to state (page 97): "Real estate timing is not about buying a home at what you "think" is a good time -- or what you "think" is a good price -- when the chances of the market rising higher in the very near future are only so-so. This approach is like betting on the spin of the roulette wheel. Instead, you want to use The Campbell Method to buy a home not only when prices are low, but also at a time when probability is high that home prices will appreciate almost immediately."

Then: "...once you buy a property -- whether it's a home you live in or a rental property, your entire focus must shift to the only thing that is within your control: knowing when to sell for the highest price."

Loved the book and I'm looking forward to utilizing the techniques.

At first I did not know what to expect from this book because the cover seemed very amateurish, but I found it interesting. The author describes how he gathered data for San Diego real estate market, and tested whether there were any correlations between different variables. He came up with five Vital Signs that provide valuable clues for anticipating trends. They are:

1. Existing home sales
2. New home building permits
3. Mortgage loan defaults
4. Foreclosure sales
5. Interest rates

The author argues that investors can take these Vital Signs into any local real estate market and be able to make well-timed buy and sell decisions.

- Mariusz Skonieczny, author of Why Are We So Clueless about the Stock Market? Learn how to invest your money, how to pick stocks, and how to make money in the stock market

Robert Campbell's guide to understanding supple and demand in residential real estate markets is a must read for any investor, broker or professional services provider in real estate. While I believe that most homebuyers make purchases for reasons other than value speculation Robert's tools would provide them with a precise knowledge of where the real estate cycles are for the market in which they are making purchase and allow them to be comfortable about their decisions.

Robert's methods do require a bit of thought and could involve some expense and time for data gathering but it is easy for anyone with a basic knowledge of MS Excel to use his methods and benefit. If not, he has an affordable solution.

I read the book in a day and put it to work immediately in my home market. The results corraborted what I already knew about recent market history and gave me additional valuable insight that I was able to use to help my clients. I give this book my highest recommendation as a real estate broker with more than 30 years of experience in real estate investing and commercial real estate.

Good job Robert!

As the author mentioned, timing is the most important factor for real estate market - especially when we are experiencing the economy downturn and dramatic nationwide housing price drop. There is almost no exception where your real estate is - the only difference is how much % it has dropped and how much worse will it be.