Customer Reviews

Trading Chaos: Maximize Profits with Proven Technical Techniques (A Marketplace Book)

5 star:		(13)
4 star:		(4)
3 star:		(1)
2 star:		(2)
1 star:		(2)

 

 

As an experienced trader who has bought thousands of dollars of trading books from Amazon I found this one less than impressive.

This is not about Chaos. This is not about trading Chaos.

One of the other reviewers says "It's interesting to note that in this new book, the chaos-derived indicators (alligator, AO, and fractals) are not changed."

Given that these sexily renamed indicators are just moving averages and macds with tweaked parameters then its not really surprising. For a real book by a real trader try "Trading Day by Day" by Chick Goslin. For ideas about how to trade try "The Ultimate Trading Guide" by John Hill of Futures Truth. For psychology try one of Mark Douglas's books or Brett Steinbargers book.

Good luck in a tough industry :)

This book is not about chaos theory, nor trading chaos, but a trading book with the first 95 pages about trading psychology, primarily Zen and Tao based, and the rest 133 pages of a trading system that comes with "Metastock". As a trading book fan and a Chinese who know Zen and Tao well, I do like the first part of it as food for thought, and definitely not as reading material to sharpen my trading edge. I doubt whether the very vague Zen or Tao approach taken by the author can be well understood and practised by western traders. Furthermore, I agree with a previous reviewer that the "trade with the trend/flow" concept preached by the author contradict a little bit with his own quasi-countertrend system presented in the second part. So, I suggest those who dont have access to Metastock nor Omega Tradestation facilities should give it a pass. It's definitely not a smart way of investing if one puts money on something that does you little good.

Having read both of Williams' books, I was eager to get my hands on this one. Two words for you: Don't bother. It's a complete waste of $70.00. The book contains only about 60 pages talking about the technical aspect of this strategy (most of which has been regurgitated) from his other two books), and the remainder of the book is dedicated to psychology, meditation and relaxation techniques. Now I know why. If you attempt this strategy, you're going to need them! The strategy consists of a countertrend technique, in which it attempts to pick the bottom to get long, or the top to get short via proper 'angulation' away from the alligator using a 'bullish/bearish divertion' bar. There are a couple of problems with this. 1.) Proper angulation is way too subjective and interpretive. 2.) There can be more than one divertion bar along the way that is hit to signal an entry, or no divertion bar at all. 3.) This setup rarely shows up; I've scanned about 500 daily charts. Sure, the book contains pictures of charts where there have been successful countrend trades, but old data makes anyone look smart. There is a big difference between old data and trading real-time. The author explains that if a countertrend trade hits your stop (set under the low/high of the divertion bar), and it has become a fractal, you simply go in the opposite direction. However, he doesn't explain how to exit, or if/how to pyramid into the position. Additionally, I found several contradictions in the book, notably the chart of TEVA on page 152. The 'short' trade is stopped out and reversed long on a Wise Man 3 signal which is a fractal in the opposite direction that is way below the teeth on the alligator when it's hit. A few pages earlier the author explains that if the first signal isn't a divertion bar, but a fractal, it should only be taken only if it's hit above the teeth!

Conslusion: Sure the book inlcudes some impressive pristine countertrend trades based on angulation and divertion bars in both directions, and exiting by either a SAR divertion bar in the opposite direction or a 3-5 bar trailing stop (discussed in book). Realisticaly, these trades just don't show up that often in the market (most stocks meander too close to the alligator to warrant proper entry according to this book), and a mechanical 3-5 bar trailing stop is going to get you out way to soon if you just so happened to guess correctly when entering. Simply put, the methodology is too interpretive - Like I said, anyone looks smart using old data. Also, there is no detailed explanation on how to exit a trade if stopped and reversed after a countertrend trade doesn't move in the expected direction, and the book doesn't offer any examples. Lastly, because there is no systematic way of testing this system because it's based on subjective interpretation, you can expect countless whipsaws and endless frustration if you decide to trade it without any predetermined probability of success. But what the hell, some of the relaxation methods discussed can help with that!

The actual trading methodology is not really of interest to me. As a matter of fact, it's ironic that in the first half of the book statements such as "there is no magic system" and "all mechanical systems will fail" are made, then in the second half of the book a rather mechanical trading system that is referred to as "automagic" is described.

I suppose for a beginning trader looking for some kind of method to employ it's not a bad one to pursue. Allow me to suggest that the second half of the book should be given perhaps 10% of your consideration while the first half should be given 90%.

The first half of the book is revolutionary, and makes it a classic. It should be removed and marketed separately. In fact, I like your chances of success better if you only read the first half and then develop your own trading method based on what you notice happening in the market. Concentrate on developing a winning mindset and getting in tune with the market you trade. The first half of this book should be kept and reread regularly.

[...]

When I first started reading this book I thought it was going to be great. He really sounds good talking about Zen and Chaos theory and non-linear vs linear - and I think he is right that the markets behave under these concepts. However, he doesn't really tell us how to apply any of this to trading. Read this book and then look at a chart. Can you trade better now knowing that you should be using a non-linear, chaos approach? No! Why? Because he doesn't tell us how to apply that theory to trading. He tells us to be one with the market and flow with it etc. That's fine and dandy - but how do we do that?

He tells us that ta and mechanical systems don't work, then he reveals the system he uses to trade by - a mechanical system!!! I was shocked to see that his system is just another dime a dozen 3 ma system. How is his system using non-linear chaos theory? How is his system flowing with the market and making you more "in tune" with the market? It's just another mechanical ta system!!!(kind of sad really)

This book started with great promise but ended up being a total disappointment.

I've been trading for more than 5 years since my graduation from college. This book offers lots of questions for philosophical speculation. Indeed, it raises many doubts about our assumptions upon this reality we reside in physically, mentally, or spiritually. Nevertheless, I will not position this book as a guidebook or a know-how methodology for beginners. This book was written or structured with a strong philosophical implications. Some chapters are nothing more than anecdotes of successful traders which I personally don't find appealingly entertaining or useful to my personal account.

I am a BIG believer in Bill Williams and his body of work.

I have personally met with Bill, taken his home study course and even attended a private tutorial. Bill is the real deal. He is a *highly* profitable trader and Bill trades EXACTLY like he describes in his books (simplified over time, so Trading Chaos, 2nd Ed. is the LATEST and most refined method).

If you just want to trade with no other background information, Buy Trading Chaos, 2nd Edition (not this book) and start with chapter seven. When you get to the end of the book, you'll say, "That's it?!?! Than can't be it!" That's what I said. I then went on to take his home study course (13 weeks) and then went to a private tutorial. 95% of the methodology is IN THE BOOK! The more advanced stuff is for those who are scaling into positions and want more aggressive money management techniques.

Who am I to say this works? I started trading Bill's techniques from scratch. In LESS than 6 months I was up 95% in a medium sized account. I found some like-minded investors and we started our own Hedge Fund (more specifically, a commodity pool). I called Bill personally and he spoke with me at length about how I should flow into and out of my positions, etc. He went far above and beyond the call of duty. I cannot speak to how well my Pool is doing (not legal to disclose - considered solicitation of investors), so I cannot give figures of returns for the Pool.

Buy Trading Chaos 2nd Edition and then buy "New Trading Dim mentions" (his second book) and read chapters 9 - 11. Those chapters will give you more ideas of the SCOPE of just what is possible when you simplify your trading and align it with natural market tendencies (chaos principles).

Good luck and Good Trading!

-- Q

Having read this book recently,and being familiar with Bill Williams' work,I would like to state my opinion here,which I am afraid is totally different than that of the previous reviewer.
First of all,let me explain that I have no personal connection or mutual interest with Mr. Williams and unfortunately for me I haven't taken his course or participated in his private seminars.Furthermore,I have also found his methology unprofitable a couple of years ago.....

This book made me reread his past books and reevaluate his methology.And I realized something very special : the reason I have failed in the past to profit from this methology and the reason the last reviewer makes such a critism,is that both of us haven't understood that Mr Williams doesn't simply teach a system.He teaches a completely alternative approach to the markets and life in general.And I believe that the main reason he devotes such a big part of the book for the psychological part of trading,is because he knows that it's extremely difficult for anybody to change his perceptions.

I can parallel the way most of the other systems work,with someone who tries many shoe sizes in order to find the one that fits his foot.All of us approach trading as a probabilities,or gambling game,trying to find out if a system,tested in past data,fits the present data of the market.If we are wise enough,we cut our losses short and we go on for our next try.That's the reason,almost 97% of the traders (mechanical systems included) fail to produce consistent profits.

Mr. Williams proposes another approach.Let the market tell you each time which system you must implement to have profits.Let the shoe determine which "foot" you must use to walk properly.And if you think that this example is not appropriate,let me state it otherwise.Which parameter determines what clothes you are going to wear to get out? the weather,of course.If it changes you must change your clothes also,to feel comfortable.You can't change the weather....

Now,if Mr.Williams techniques can guide you to be in tune with the markets,it's another story and I am working on it.It seems that his daughter brought fresh and original ideas to the whole approach.Surely,the book is only the starting point to understand this mans' logic and the way he trades the markets.But I really consider the money I have spent in buying this book as the best spent money in my whole trading career.And I certainly look forward to buy his course,when my financial ability permits it.

I've been looking for a book like this for a while. I first came across Bill Williams through the Metastock indicators and the Expert System. After loading an expert called "PS Fractal Trading System 2" I was amazed at the signals.
Having read through the book - I have the following quibble. There is a huge difference in the parameters of the alligator in what comes with Metastock (v9 and v10) and what the book gives. The book says the green line is 13 bar smoothed average offset 8 bars into future. Likewise the red is 8 bar offset 5, and the green is 5 bar offset 3. However this does not correspond to the Metastock indicator he provides. For the curious, the Metastock ones referred to in page 206 of book have the following values: Green: 9 period EMA of Median offset 3. Red: 15 period offset 5, and Blue 25 period offset 8

This book has methods to get buy signals before the lows and sell signals before the highs. This will help one sell into strength and buy into weakness. It has helped me get my positions off. I have recommended this book to all of my trading friends. It will take careful study to fully understand it. This book is original, all mechanical and all objective. The three wise men make up very powerful trading tools.