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Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets (Financial Times Prentice Hall Books) Hardcover – April 23, 2004

49 customer reviews
ISBN-13: 007-6092025474 ISBN-10: 0131446037

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Product Details

  • Series: Financial Times Prentice Hall Books
  • Hardcover: 336 pages
  • Publisher: Financial Times Prentice Hall (April 23, 2004)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0131446037
  • ISBN-13: 978-0131446038
  • Product Dimensions: 7.3 x 1.2 x 9.6 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.8 pounds
  • Average Customer Review: 4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (49 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #592,593 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Michael Covel is President and founder of Trend Following™, a research-consulting firm focused on trend following trading strategies. The firm's client base consists of individual traders, students, hedge funds, pensions and family offices. Michael's unique edge is an extensive personal network within the world of quantitative trend following investments. His unparalleled global teaching track record is over 7000+ clients in 70+ countries.

The bestselling author of The Little Book of Trading, Trend Commandments, The Complete TurtleTrader and the classic Trend Following, Michael's books have sold 150,000+ copies. His books have been translated into 10+ languages with Trend Following named best trading book of the last 15 years. His first documentary film is Broke: The New American Dream.

Michael is also the voice behind Trend Following Radio, the underground alternative hit that has been as high as #2 on iTunes investing channel reaching 182 countries & territories with 1.9 million listens. Guests have included: Daniel Kahneman (Nobel Prize), Vernon Smith (Nobel Prize), Harry Markowitz (Nobel Prize), Ed Seykota, Gerd Gigerenzer, Dan Ariely, Jack Schwager, Michael Mauboussin, Larry Williams, Tom DeMark, Tom Basso, Jerry Parker, Barry Ritholtz and Larry Hite. More:

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

307 of 326 people found the following review helpful By A Customer on June 30, 2004
Format: Hardcover
Why should you read this book? Is the book worth the time and effort? The book layed the foundation for my trading career. Brick by brick and chapter by chapter the author supported why trading as a trend follower is so important. Examples of the successes of current trend followers are peppered through the book.
Does the author give you the secrets to trading? No. Are there any secrets to trading? No. Buy if the price is going up and sell short if the price is going down. Is it that simple? Yes. The author goes out of his way to show example upon example of successful trend traders. These traders are not Wall Street names. They do however, beat the S&P on average year after year, and do so very quietly.
What does it take to be successful? How can I be successful? Simple, find someone who has what you want and then model their behavior. Find a mentor. If you want to make money in the markets then model the behaviour of those who are successful. Granted most of these traders would not take you under their wing, so buy the book and let it serve as your focus. Their behavior is thoroughly outlined through the pages.
People with nothing to say always talk the loudest. In trading the ones who have nothing yell.
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290 of 308 people found the following review helpful By A Customer on June 21, 2004
Format: Hardcover
What's great about this book is that it goes straight for jugular of anyone who can't stop themselves from making predictions about the markets. Like those chart reading traders who think they can actually forecast the market direction. Prediction with charts is a losing game. If 100 traders stare at a chart, they come up with 100 different subjective interpretations. This book may actually make them realize that pretending they have unique skill through years of ink blot study is just blowing smoke.
Better yet this book is not based off hypothetical testing or experiments in what may work. It uses real performance data from guys who have traded for decades as trend followers. If you worship technical indicators as "it" don't read this book unless you want a hard cold splash of reality. If you worship technical indicators as some market tonic -- go ahead -- but don't forget the best in the business do nothing of the sort.
One of my favorite parts is the description of the hundreds of millions of dollars trend followers won at the same time Long Term Capital Management was imploding and losing their shirts. Wow, what an example of risk and volatility in stark terms.
But ultimately it is the no holds barred condemnation of fundamental analysis that sticks with me. Trend followers don't waste their time trying to understand forces influencing market participants (fundamental analysis) They care about the market price and what they should do in response to market price movement. Isn't that a goal for all of us? Round of applause for the diligent research and clear writing.
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242 of 256 people found the following review helpful By "baroquebespoke" on May 7, 2004
Format: Hardcover
I heard about this book from a buddy of mine who trades using a mechanical system similar to trend following. Now I know why he recommended it. The book is a must read for investors and traders alike. Had I read this book three years ago I would have known why my investments were getting slammed by the bear. The author knows his subject inside-out and breaks it down in so many ways, I can't help but be embarrassed by my once magical belief in my broker's insight. I particularly recommend the chapter on behavioral finance that speaks to everyone who has had gut wrenching losing spells.
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640 of 689 people found the following review helpful By Rob Ryley on June 20, 2004
Format: Hardcover
I've read close to 100 trading books on various trading methods--fundamentals, technicals, options trading, etc. I trade and I would consider myself a trend follower--of sorts.
The author does make a good point--trend following is a valid and underestimated methodology. It is the method that discretionary traders like Edwards and Magee would advocate.
Trend following is based on events that the market underestimates. Price action does not follow the normal distribution, as the statisticians would have it. Events that are statistically improbable are much more frequent than chance would allow. Trend following technical analysis attempts to catch these moves.
The author underestimates the drawbacks of a strict trend-following methodology--large draw-downs, with a large percentage of losing trades. This drawback--low reliability is also a strength--most market participants are not interested in profitable system with a large number of losers. A more severe drawback--a large amount of capital is needed to trade such a system to handle the inevitable drawdowns.
He fails to address this issue by simply suggesting that if you take enough trades, eventually one will go your way and make up for your losses. Maybe so. But who would be willing to suffer draw-downs in the range of 30% or more, waiting for one or 2 big trades to come? Not many. Increased market volatility makes trend following systems profitable, but more risky.
If you examine _The Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies_ you will see that most mechanical systems degrade over time. Volatility breakout systems used to be very popular. But with increased volatility, simple breakout systems give more frequent losing trades, rendering them unprofitable for the test period.
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