Turning Numbers into Knowledge: Mastering the Art of Problem Solving [Paperback]

Jonathan G. Koomey PhD (Author), John P. Holdren (Foreword)

Book Description

Publication Date: April 28, 2008

Full of tools, tricks, and tips for solving problems in the real world, this book serves as an ideal training manual for those who are new to or intimidated by quantitative analysis and acts as an excellent refresher for those who have more experience but want to improve the quality of their data, the clarity of their graphics, and the cogency of their arguments. In addition to containing numerous updates to the contents—references, URLs, and reading lists—this second edition includes a new foreword, revised chapters, and an epilogue. Mastering the art of problem solving takes more than proficiency with basic calculations; it requires understanding how people use information, recognizing the importance of ideology, learning the art of storytelling, and acknowledging the important distinction between facts and values. Intended for executives, professors, and students, this guide addresses these and other essential skills.

Editorial Reviews

Review

"There is nothing else like this book out there. Nobody who deals with problems where numbers matter — and everybody in today’s world really needs to — should be without it."  —John P. Holdren, past president, American Association for the Advancement of Science, from the Foreword

"A lively, well-written, attractively packaged book on the art of critical thinking."  —Skeptical Inquirer

"Dr. Koomey's book deserves to be widely read and shared, especially by those who take seriously the fragile yet critical role of an informed citizenry in increasingly complex democratic societies."  —Professor Michael Maniates, Allegheny College

From the Author

This book grew out of my experience in training analysts whom I've hired in the past decade. It is written for beginning problem solvers in business, government, consulting, and research professions, and for students of business and public policy. It is also intended for supervisors of such analysts, professors, and entrepreneurs (who may not consider themselves analysts but who need to create analyses to justify their business plans to potential investors). Finally, it covers many topics that journalists who focus on scientific or business topics will find useful.

I’ve included cartoons and other amusing graphics, as well as quotes and examples galore. The chapters are short and to the point, with plenty of further reading in the back for readers who want to explore further. I hope that any person who takes an intelligent interest in the world will enjoy it and find it useful. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

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Product Details

• Paperback: 247 pages
• Publisher: Analytics Press; 2nd edition (April 28, 2008)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0970601921
• ISBN-13: 978-0970601926
• Product Dimensions: 10.2 x 0.6 x 7.1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (38 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #108,049 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Most Helpful Customer Reviews

117 of 121 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Among the most influential books I've read May 13, 2002

By Mike Tarrani HALL OF FAMETOP 500 REVIEWER

Format:Hardcover

I was expecting a book about quantitative methods and advanced problem solving techniques. What I got, instead, was a book that didn't even discuss numbers until page 111 of a 221 page book, and it was lite on problem solving techniques. Although it was not what I expected it turned out to be one of those rare books that deeply influences and provides fresh perspectives. The book led me on a journey that broke the process of critical thinking into manageable steps. Among the things I learned were:

* Examine key factors, such as information, attention and action within the context of a cycle of actions that begins with goals, and moves through execution, how events in the external world influence the meeting of those goals, an evaluation and refinement of goals. Then the process starts anew.

* Structured methods for getting organized. The techniques given are simple, yet powerful.How to collect and critically analyze data and information, common fallacies and how to spot them. Two of my favorite parts that reinforce these are then single-page chart titled "What Scientists Say, and What They Mean", and Chapter 20 (Uncertainty Principle and the Mass Media).

* The straightforward process of numerical analysis, using relatively simple math techniques to make sense of numbers and turn them into knowledge, is priceless. What makes this part of the book valuable is that the author integrates the preceding chapters that lead you to a critical thinking mindset with common sense and techniques that are within the grasp of high school students. It looks easy, but is testimony to the author's exceptional ability to communicate and inspire.

Overall this book is one of my personal favorites and one that I recommend to colleagues. Another book that complements this one nicely is Systems Thinking: Managing Chaos and Complexity by Jamshid Gharajedaghi.

87 of 89 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Zen and the Art of Statistical Analysis November 30, 2001

By Paul Preuss

Format:Hardcover

In his role as leader of the End-Use Forecasting Group in the Environmental Energy Technologies Division of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Jonathan Koomey is professionally concerned with using numbers from many different sources to gain knowledge about where markets for energy-efficient technologies may be headed. It's an approach called quantitative problem solving.

"Although the technical aspects of this process are taught at many universities, the art of problem solving is rarely discussed and even more rarely written down," Koomey notes in the preface. His goal is to amend that lack, helping the reader "to become a first-rate analyst in your chosen field."

"Your chosen field" covers a lot of ground, and while the book delivers on Koomey's promise, much of the pleasure of reading it comes from his eccentric definition of both his topic and his audience. Not a textbook -- or not just a textbook -- "Turning Numbers into Knowledge" is aimed at students and professors alike; at problem solvers in business, government, and research; at middle managers and potential investors; and even at journalists.

Beginning with a chapter titled "Beginner's Mind" and including others titled "Question Authority" and "Reflect," one might think Koomey's book could have been named "Zen and the Art of Statistical Analysis." But it's also full of technical advice, in chapters like "Let Tables and Graphs Do the Work," "Use the Internet," and many more.

In fact Koomey has organized his topics thoughtfully, beginning with considerations of why anyone, professional or amateur, would undertake quantitative analysis. Koomey's bottom-line answer is that it helps us manage a runaway information explosion, which otherwise can lead to paralysis through overload or the opposite, a refusal to learn anything new. He then moves on to the mental preparation needed for problem solving, consideration of common pitfalls, critical thinking, and finally to nitty-gritty techniques.

In the first chapter, "Beginner's Mind," Koomey reminds the reader that "experience is a two-edged sword. It eliminates unnecessary detail," but it can also "lead you astray when a new problem is sufficiently outside your experience." What's needed, he says, is a combination of curiosity -- the nonjudgmental observation of the beginner -- with the experience of a senior analyst.

He makes his point with Bruce Lee's amusing parable of the Zen master and the Western university professor who came to inquire about Zen but never stopped talking about what he already knew. During a pause in the monologue, the master suggested tea. He poured his visitor's cup full and kept on pouring and pouring until finally the professor protested: "No more will go in!" Noting that professor's mind was like his tea cup, the master asked "How can I show you Zen unless you empty your cup?"

Later, in the chapter "Question Authority," Koomey allows that sometimes following authority is essential -- in military maneuvers, for example -- but that most life situations aren't like that. Appeals to anonymous authority are immediately suspect; so are expert pronouncements by experts in an unrelated field, or those with a vested interest in the outcome. Koomey cites the "expert" testimony of researchers funded by tobacco companies who found no evidence that smoking had adverse health effects. He warns that while information on the internet is particularly susceptible to a lack of institutional validity, "any source can propagate nonsense."

In an exercise from a subsequent chapter, "How guesses become facts," Koomey suggests that the reader "Find an official statistic that sounds plausible and explore its origins. Do you still find it plausible after you've investigated?" It's an exercise Koomey himself has undertaken more than once, notably with the 1998 claim that the internet was consuming eight percent of total U.S. electricity production and was well on its way to consuming half. Koomey discovered that the numbers were based on bad measurements, bad assumptions, and outright guesses -- none of which prevented them from becoming enshrined as fact before Koomey's team did their best to set things straight.

In summing up, Koomey lists a dozen lessons to remember, among them "Don't be intimidated," "Get organized," "Document, document, document," and "Remember that others don't care as much about your work as you do" -- an invitation to know and persuade one's audience. It's sound advice, cheerfully and colorfully delivered by a man who knows what he's talking about, and of value to all sorts of readers -- whether or not they intend to ever crunch a single number.

35 of 35 people found the following review helpful

3.0 out of 5 stars Basic book March 20, 2009

By Trevor Burnham VINE™ VOICE

Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase

The subtitle of this book is slightly misleading. This isn't so much about problem solving as about information literacy, learning to do your research and think about the credibility of your sources. The book is presented in an enjoyable format, with very short chapters (2-4 pages) on each subject consisting of an anecdote or two, a few quotes, and perhaps a comic. It also cites a wide variety of references for readers who want to learn about the topics in greater depth.

But aside from a few enjoyable stories, this book didn't teach me anything that I hadn't already picked up by the end of college. There is a great deal of commonsensical advice, like "Next time you find yourself resisting a new idea, take a deep breath and try to see the other point of view," plus outright fluff, like "After deciding what to do, you must follow through with action" and "Science and technology are a critical part of modern life." This might be an excellent primer for high schoolers, but based on the blurbs I was expecting something more advanced.