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Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability

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I grew up in L.A. and I didn't know that the blue sky in picture books was a real thing! I am genuinely serious about this. When I was 18 years old, I traveled to Oregon, got off the plane, and saw that the sky was actually blue--I had thought that it was a myth.

This book is really about the reason for those gray L.A. skies I grew up with. It is one of those books that everyone "should" read. It's important and it matters because it explains a huge issue we are going to have to deal with in the near future and beyond. I was fascinated by the interesting details that the authors included about the car industry and the development of different types of engines.

But, this book is so packed with information that you need to press on and wade into the deep end of it and then keep on swimming. It is a textbook. I assumed that it would be much lighter because of Schwarzenegger's contribution, but he only wrote the forward. As a textbook, I give it a very high recommendation. It is a very, very readable textbook. An easy, light read, this book is not.

As opposed to the other readers, I don't feel that the authors focused too much on California. The chapter that discusses California's situation and the actions that its state government has taken was very appropriate to the overall discussion of the book. One thing was not acknowledged in this chapter, though, and that was the horrible lack of public transporation and mass transit in California. I wish that there had been more of a discussion of mass transit in the book.

This book is definitely worth reading. The best comparison I can think of is that if you enjoy reading the magazine the Economist, then this book should be right up your alley.

Authors Daniel Sperling and Deborah Gordon have written a book describing their proposals for how we must deal with the energy and climate implications of personal transportation. The title is based on the projection of the number of cars we would expect to see in the coming years, as a number of countries develop their economies, notably India and China. With personal transportation accounting for 30% of US carbon emissions, and some very large percentage of our crude oil consumption, it is clear that the transportation picture must change. In the end, the authors make a case for a number of general solutions, many based on their efforts in California.

The book will be published soon, but its timing is a bit unfortunate; frequently there are sections that refer to the pre-financial-crisis state of the world: high gasoline and oil prices, a regressive Bush administration in place, and a resonable set of assumptions about the availability of capital, car companies that were in bad shape but not near-death, and so on. So much has changed in the last few months that even before being published, in some ways the book seems dated. Of course this is mainly a superficial problem, as the policy proposals and observations in most ways transcend the presumably temporal problems the world economy is undergoing, and the new political landscape in a more enlightened Obama administration. Still, it is hard to read parts of the book only because it is clear that so much that is relevant to the problem has changed.

The book is organized in 9 chapters. The first 6 chapters present the history and current state of what the authors call the automobile monoculture: a world where most forms of transportation have been squeezed out to make room for one form of transit: the car. The 7th chapter describes the policies that have been put into place in California, many through the efforts of the authors. The next chapter describes how the car monoculture of the US is rapidly spreading to China as well as India. The final chapter presents the authors' proposals in this context.

I may be at the edge of the intended audience for the book -- while the forward (written by California governor Arnold Schwartzeneger) describes the book as accessible, I found it a bit dense and perhaps a little less cohesive than I would have preferred. Several times I felt as though a more ruthless editing would have made the content more readable, and more effective at making the point. I also found that the positions on certain policies were unclear, if not directly contradictory. For example, the authors go to some length to detail why cap and trade carbon policies are not a good solution for the problem of controlling automobile usage, yet in the end seem to include that as one of their proposals. In another example, they describe why technology-specific legislation (e.g. corn ethanol incentives) tend to fail compared to legislation that mandates objectives (e.g. carbon emissions), yet then propose how to regulate some specific energy sources, such as tar sands. Again, perhaps my relative lack of expertise in this area prevented me from grasping certain nuances. However, at some level, I think the book could have been far more effective with another round or two of editing.

I do think the authors eventually present a cogent, well-reasoned and broad solution for the problem the book addresses: 2 billion cars. In particular, they describe how future systems of integrated transportation systems could help us move away from the one-size-fits-all solution that personal automobiles have created. For example, we might have on-demand electric vehicles that can be summoned from our smart phone and which take us to a suitable location to pick up a bus or train. Still, this "Futurama III" scenario they describe seems very distant, and a bit dischordant with the specific, far more pragmatic proposals they present. In the end, I was left with a number of questions about how all of these pieces would come together.

My final criticism of the book is that it is presented in a bit of a vacuum, not particularly addressing how transportation solutions fit with equally important policies relating to other energy and climate problems such as heating and cooling of buildings, eletrical grid use (except as it relates to plug-in cars), agriculture, food, and water. These issues are inextricably bound; policies that address one without consideting others have consistently proven to be counter-productive (consider, for example corn ethanol programs; they help with oil independence at several much greater costs). I fully recognize that such a book must necessarily focus on solutions to the specific problem domain, yet almost no mention was made of how these solutions fit into the larger web of highly-related problems (and solutions). It seems that we often try to fix one problem without considering its impact on others (indeed the book itself makes this point).

As a conclusion, I think this book is best as an example of solutions that have worked in California ... and often under less-than-favorable political and policy conditions. Are these solutions relevant in this post-election, intra-financial world?

Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability, is the title of this thought-provoking and timely book by Daniel Sperling and Deborah Gordon. Their premise is simple: "The world is speeding toward two billion vehicles, and there can be no denying that cars and trucks are integral to our lifestyle and our economy. Cars provide mobility and personal freedom while trucks carry the goods that keep our economy humming. But all these vehicles and our near-total dependence on gasoline to fuel them contribute to global warming, deplete our natural resources, and undermine our national security."

And that's just the first paragraph in the preface, written by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger!

Sperling and Gordon go into greater detail on these issues. Here's a sampling of the nuggets you will find [don't assume these snippets summarize the book; there is a LOT more here]:

"One-fourth of all the oil consumed by humans in our entire history will be consumed from 2000 to 2010."

"The principal solution is electric-drive technology. While 97 percent of the vehicles in the world burn petroleum fuels in combustion engines, the next generation of vehicles will almost certainly be propelled by electric motors."

[We have] "...a transportation monoculture that's unsustainable. Indeed, it would be hard to imagine a passenger transportation more inefficient, wasteful of resources, and destructive of the global environment than what we now have."

"The future is likely to be different. High oil prices, conflicts in the Middle East, increasing fears of climate change, and intense competition are converging to create a more fertile environment for transformational innovations."

"Electric motors are inherently more efficient than combustion engines, effectively utilizing more than 90 percent of the energy provided, compared to 37 percent for today's conventional car engine. Electric-drive vehicles have two other important efficiency advantages: no energy is consumed while the car is at rest or coasting, and energy normally lost when braking is instead captured and used." However, "When electric vehicles are powered strictly by coal-generated electricity, they cause slightly more greenhouse gas emissions than a gasoline-powered combustion vehicle and thus aren't attractive from a climate change perspective - unless the gases are captured and permanently stored at the coal plant."

"Although the Prius represents only a small fraction of the millions of cars and trucks Toyota has produced, it has generated huge amounts of free advertising and goodwill, motivated untold extra sales of Toyota's many other vehicles, and buffered Toyota from criticism as it expanded sales of large trucks and SUVs."

"The theme of unexpected consequences and indirect innovation emerges again and again with alternative fuels. The lesson is that innovation and change can be swift and unintended consequences can be minimized - if goals are clear, leaders step forward, problems are vetted, and the circumstances are right."

"...the more dire forecasts of oil peaking are simplistic and largely incorrect. Those forecasts usually refer only to conventional oil and are conservative about the use of improved technology to recover additional oil from existing fields and to develop new fields."... "The mount of unconventional oil that can be recovered at $70 per barrel is uncertain but is vast by any measure - far more in volume than all the conventional oil produced in the world to date."

"Consumers in the United States are unresponsive to high fuel prices because they lack viable travel options, while consumers in other rich countries are largely unresponsive because taxes swamp the effect of changing market prices."

"The primary challenge is to awaken an American public largely ignorant of the energy and climate implications of their decisions, and to motive American consumers to align their choices with the greater public good - what U.S. Senator John McCain has repeatedly called `a course greater than self-interest.'"

"Affluent people can afford to buy gas guzzlers that are eventually driven most of their miles by less-affluent people. For various reasons, buyers tend to undervalue the continuing stream of fuel savings from energy-efficient vehicles. The challenge for policy is to nudge car buyers to behave in a way that reflects broader social interest over the entire lifetime of the vehicle they decide to purchase."

"In the end, it's not a question of whether consumer behavior will change. It must."

"...the key to California's pioneering role is strong bipartisan government leadership, cutting-edge research in clean energy, a political and business atmosphere that encourages more innovation and investment in clean energy and efficiency, and consumers who are by choice and necessity on the leading edge of change."


Authors Sperling and Gordon go into greater depth in discussing alternative fuels, California's leading role in affecting change in US transportation policy, the emerging and critical role of China, and (to me) an analysis of consumer behavior.

They conclude "Three sets of changes are needed to realize our vision of the future: vehicles must become far more energy efficient, the carbon content of fuels must be greatly reduced, and consumers and travelers must behave in a more eco-friendly manner. By mid-century, we envision a massive shift under way in all three realms. Electric-drive vehicles will have largely supplanted internal combustion engine vehicles, low-carbon fuels will dominate over petroleum, and the transportation monoculture will be fragmenting, even in car-centric America."

This is an intriguing and informative book that opened my eyes to a variety of transportation issues, and I would call myself fairly sophisticated on these topics. Obviously, I am less sophisticated than I thought, and I appreciate the analysis provided by Sperling and Gordon, as well as their clear writing. Given the current effects of the global recession as well as the restructuring of the American automotive industry because of the recession, I hope an addendum to this book is close behind. I also hope Sperling and Gordon are asked to be transportation advisors for President Obama.

Two Billion Cars is a very informative book on transportation and sustainability issues. The premise of the book is that currently we have one billion cars, but in twenty years, the planet will have about two billion cars. If there are no changes, this growth in cars will be disastrous in terms of energy usage, congestion, and global warming. The first two chapters are fairly dry, but the book gets more interesting in chapter 3, "Breaking Detroit's Hold on Energy and Climate Policy", which is a terrific short history on how America got to be so car-centric.

The book will appeal most to people interested in sustainability issues as they relate to transportation and climate change.

Points made in the book:
1. Almost all the growth in vehicles will come from India and China, with annual growth rates in vehicles about 7-8 percent annually. The United States has a current growth rate in vehicles of less than 1 percent annually, so we are less affected by local pollution and congestion, although global warming issues would still be a concern. Whatever India and China do (or fail to do) will have the biggest effect on greenhouse gas emissions.

2. Nothing will get people out of their cars and using mass-transit in the foreseeable future, not even much higher fuel prices. Therefore, making the personal passenger vehicle more environmentally-friendly is the key.

3. We are nowhere near peak oil. The amount of unconventional oil such as tar sands is quite large.

4. The best way to promote energy independence and reduce greenhouse gas emissions is to impose very high fuel mileage standards. Government should never "bet on a technology winner", but should instead make performance-based goals the only measure of success, both for fuel mileage standards, and greenhouse gas tailpipe standards (both standards are linked).

5. Ethanol from corn probably is less environmentally beneficial than just using imported oil.

6. California is in a unique position to influence national policy on sustainable transportation, and therefore can influence policy globally.

7. American car manufacturers used perverse incentives to create gas-guzzling vehicles (be sure to read about how the "chicken tax" and truck-exemption for fuel mileage led to the dominance of the truck, mini-van, and SUV in American car sales). The only way to end these perverse incentives is to remove the negative incentive and pass fuel efficiency rules.

8. One of the best hopes to increase fuel efficiency is to use plug-in hybrids. Hydrogen-powered fuel cells remain an elusive dream.

Quotes from last chapter of book "Driving Towards Sustainability":

"The world is still in denial about the staggering challenges it faces and the radical transformation it must undertake. Achieving a 50 to 80 percent net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions isn't something that businesses, consumers, and politicians can fully imagine."

"Policymakers must overcome the temptation to prescribe and mandate any one particular solution. Similarly, they must the temptation to pick winners. There's an unfortunate tendency for technological experts and politicians alike to embrace "silver bullets" and pick winners. Innovation and technological changes are too dynamic and too difficult to predict."

"The most effective and least costly way to reduce transportation oil use and greenhouse gas emissions is to improve the energy efficiency of vehicles."

I live in Asia and particularly in Bangkok, a city that has struggled with traffic since I arrived in 1980. The Thai Government has limited the number of cars being purchased through a luxury tax of 100-400%. Even at that, we have spent the equivalent of 11 years in traffic in this incredible city. It is only in the last few years that the traffic has improved due to new infrastructure projects, Sky train, subway being completed.

Reading 2 Billion cars, I cannot imagine what that would look like in countries like India and China. As this is written, the Nano is being manufactured in India which will make more cars accessible to the general population. Without major construction of infrastructure projects worldwide ---I cannot imagine millions of people living in almost permanent gridlock literally with loss of work, plus the environmental challenges of adding another billion cars to the roads, particularly in Asia -- Daunting, challenging and who is giving attention to these kinds of issues are questions that come to mind in reading this book.

In the first portion of 2 Billion -- focus is given on electric cars, hybrid cars and fuel cells that will only be available in limited fashion by 2015. Fuel cells were first built in 1843 but nothing was done until the 1950's. I remember the Energy crisis in the mid 1970's and we did nothing basically and saw the price of oil skyrocket in the first decade of 2000. There seems to have been no public will to do anything. At least this book is bringing this to the attention of the public one more time.

2 Billion continues on how do we become less car-dependent in this generation? Alternatives like smart paratransit - convenient transport without fixed routes -- Again I live in Asia and this a serious dream - Buses, vans, trains, taxis with radios are already in operation and pretty much full. Sky trains, subways are working but have limited routing and Light rails are just coming into being. The construction of these major infrastructure projects are 4-5 years and cause quite a bit of gridlock in the meantime.

The challenge of this transformation is understanding the tension of private desires and public interest and recognizing that no longer can the public benefits of efficient and sustainable transportation be ignored. I picked this book up before the current economic crisis effecting the car industry occurred which will be interesting to see where we end up. However, this could be an opportunity to put people to work on major infrastructural projects around the world to get people moving in a sustainable fashion.

The authors of 2 Billion spend quite a bit of time looking at the history of Detroit and its dominance until recently in the worldwide car market. It also looks at a post-petroleum society before it looks at innovations that have been occurring in California and in China.. In 1849 California was nearly empty land until the gold rush and had 100,000 mostly Native Americans and no cities of more than 2,000 residents. However by 1930, there were two million cars or a vehicle for every 3 people in California. Leadership and innovation are needed to move us forward.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has been providing that leadership even when the US government has failed to take strong action. This is a story about what he is doing and mistakes that he has made along the way. In 2007 China surpassed the USA as the single largest contributor of greenhouses gases into the atmosphere. Also China could by itself add another billion cars by itself in the 21st century if they follow America's car-centric model. China is now the third largest economy in the world and requires incredible amounts of energy now. Pollution is now a serious downside. The national government is grappling with a sustainable future and beginning to impose more aggressive emission standards on vehicles. The Chinese are committed to motorization but the question is which model will they use as they move forward.

2 Billion authors end the book with a strategy for driving toward sustainability. On page 260, " The road to surviving and thriving is paved with low-carbon fuels and electric drive vehicles, new mobility options, and smarter governance. Enlightened consumers, innovative policymakers, and entrepreneurial businesses worldwide can drive us to a sustainable future. "

We shall see.....

Written by highly reputed scholars, the authors accomplished the feat to produce a book accessible to the general public but also useful for students and practitioners. Even technical jargon such as "price elasticity" and "marginal cost" appears just a couple of times. Well researched, the book is intended for readers of all countries, though the authors at some points inadvertently take a very American-centric view. Their account on how modern society got into the unsustainable car-centric society predicament is both concise and comprehensive.

The chapters recounting the evolution of automobiles, and the behind the scenes doings of Detroit Big Three and Big Oil are not only very interesting but specially revealing regarding the magnitude of their influence within the American political decision making process, and also very helpful to understand why the US was left behind by Europe and other countries in terms of transport sustainability and more efficient and clean vehicle technology. A very enlightening complement to these chapters is the documentary Who Killed the Electric Car?, which investigated another huge blunder by one of Detroit's automakers.

Chapter 2 presents a very comprehensive analysis of all the dimensions that explain why the car-centric American model is unsustainable, for the US and the rest of the world. The authors briefly go into each of them, from the dangers and consequences of oil dependence to the inefficiencies and negative impacts of ever increasing auto use and urban sprawl, as land use has a large effect on vehicle use, and of course, climate change is the chief concern and the main focus of the book. As a result, most of the following chapters are devoted to the analysis and expectations regarding conventional oil, low-carbon fuels and alternative fuel vehicles, particularly hybrids, electric and fuel cell vehicles using hydrogen, this one, considered the Holy Grail by automakers, some politicians, academics, and environmental groups.

Unfortunately, the discussion regarding how to curb urban transport demand and how to stop urban sprawl disappears from the book only to reappear briefly at the end, as part of the authors recommendations regarding consumer choices and government behavior. In total, only six pages in Chapter 2, a couple in Chapter 6, and seven pages in Chapter 9, out of 260, were devoted to these critical issues. The light treatment of such key issues is regrettable and the book's main shortcoming. This part of the solution equation is probably the most difficult to accomplish in a reasonable time, and as the authors recognize, the biggest hurdle to reach "Futurama III" by 2050, the authors' dream low-carbon transport system.

Back to the book's main focus, I think there is a missing piece in the comprehensive discussion of alternative fuels is biofuels. The authors summarily dismiss biofuels as a sustainable option, particularly American corn ethanol, explaining the rationale in just a couple of pages. Nonetheless, they present in a nutshell a comprehensive account of the successful Brazilian experience with sugarcane ethanol and flex-fuel vehicles, and call it a policy model and the most successful alternative fuel to day, yet they consider Brazil just as an outlier case not replicable elsewhere. So, biofuels were left out of the book. Another regrettable omission is the absence of a discussion regarding the array of policies implemented in various Nordic countries in order to reduce their carbon footprint from transport, particularly the Swedish case, not even mentioned once in the book despite being another biofuel leader.

Although I agree that the US does not have the conditions to replicate the Brazilian bioethanol model, I don't think Brazil is such Black Swan, as several tropical countries in Latin America, the Caribbean and Africa have the right conditions, and actually a few are already moving in that direction. They have the right climate and experience with sugarcane farming, Brazil is already transferring its advanced agricultural technology for free, and automotive fuel demand in most of those countries is relatively small enough, as to not have to dedicate too much arable land for cane bioethanol production. Particularly for poor Africa there is quite an opportunity in adopting the Brazilian model.

In regard to the chapters devoted to California I was disappointed. I was looking forward to learn about the innovative policies that have been implemented lately, such as how they are curbing urban sprawl. Unfortunately it seems the authors wrote this chapter with the heart and put more detail in the politics and decision making process, some of which they were personally involved. The chapter of China is probably the weakest. There is too much speculation, wishful thinking and even a small dose of the patronizing. Guys, did you forget the political system that is in place at China? Because this chapter seems to assume that the Chinese internal market will behave like a regular democratic western country.

I think they could have use a good part of the chapters on California and China rather to discuss more deeply the necessary changes regarding available alternatives to increase public transit use, and policies to reduce auto demand and limiting urban sprawl. For a complementary book covering these key and painful subjects I recommend Robert Cervero's The Transit Metropolis: A Global Inquiry. This book presents the inner workings of the policies not discussed in Two Billion Cars, illustrated with a dozen cases of islands of excellence that were able to achieve harmony and sustainability between their urban transport system and land use. Though published some 10 years ago, the book is not outdated yet, and it is only missing the new congestion pricing schemes that went into force in London, Stockholm, and Milan, and also the global embrace of Curitiba's transit model (BRT), now implemented in several countries, including the US and China. Another very comprehensive book covering both the land use and transportation issues is Anthony Downs' 2004 Still Stuck in Traffic: Coping with Peak-Hour Traffic Congestion (Revised) (James A. Johnson Metro).

The recommendations presented in the final chapters make quite a contribution to the sustainable transport debate. I particularly liked the proposal of establishing a variable gasoline tax with a price floor to compensate for the market failures of oil supply. If Americans could afford $4 a gallon, this tax will guarantee that prices stay at the selected level when world market prices are below the floor, like right now. But if market prices go above the floor then the tax will shrink. Revenues could go to R&D to develop low-carbon, alternative fuels, and innovative mobility options. At the same time it will reduce uncertainties for investing on these new fuels, and it avoids the windfall to go to petro-dictators. I agree with the authors this mechanism is much better than trade-and-cap. Also the recommended general strategy of establishing performance the goals to be met by any technology is much better and efficient that the government picking the winners, as happened with corn ethanol.

Despite my criticism, I believe the book does a significant contribution to the discussion about the future of the urban transportation system. Highly recommended. Even if you do not have the patience to read the whole thing, at least borrow it from a friend and read Chapters 2 and 9, you are not going to regret it. Or peek a bit with Amazon's Look Inside tool. Only if all citizens get a basic understanding of the concepts behind the ongoing discussion and the real magnitude of the sacrifices required, the world is going to move to a more sustainable transport and energy systems. And we better start preparing now to make the choices wisely and voting with our wallets and on the ballot, without exaggerations, apocalyptic prophesies or radical positions whether from environmentalists or from or ultra-conservatives, because all of us are going to pay the price and the consequences for doing nothing.

And finally, the book is written under the assumption that climate change is already happening and the science is settled. All the language used in the book is consistent with this premise. Considering all the other reasons presented in the book to abandon the car-centric model, I think the authors unnecessarily scared away the "skeptical" readers. It is a shame because changes in consumer choices and behavior must also include the non-believers. The automobile-dependent model is not sustainable whether global warming is manmade or not. Pandemic traffic congestion will gridlock many cities in the world in a few decades; air pollution from auto emissions is already a serious health problem in many places, to the point that several Latin American big cities already have been rationing road space for several years through restricting entrance by plate number; and because most countries need to quit from oil addiction for all the well known reasons.

Further readings recommended. If you want to know what lies ahead beyond transport, and particularly clean energy, read Thomas Friedman's Hot, Flat, and Crowded: Why We Need a Green Revolution--and How It Can Renew America, or just to get more details on hybrids. plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles read Plug-in Hybrids: The Cars that will Recharge America. For a no nonsense critic on the economics behind the mitigation measures proposed for climate change read Lawson's An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming. If you want to know more about American corn ethanol read Sustainable Ethanol: Biofuels, Biorefineries, Cellulosic Biomass, Flex-fuel Vehicles, and Sustainable Farming for Energy Independence. In order to take a wise decision we have to hear all points of view. Furthermore, most scientists, engineers, and economists that have and will develop the technologies and policy solutions usually lack social and political sensibility. On the other hand, most politicians are more sensible but their chief concern is to stay in office.

Sorry for the long review and thank you if you bear with me this long. I just regret I did not get the book for free as most of the fellow reviewers below did. Just kidding, this book is worth every penny I paid for, that is why I got so carried away with the review.

PS: for a follow-up see also Plug-In Electric Vehicles: What Role for Washington?, High Voltage: The Fast Track to Plug In the Auto Industry, and Bottled Lightning: Superbatteries, Electric Cars, and the New Lithium Economy

PS(2): There is now a 2010 paperback edition (Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability) with a new chapter (16pp) entitled "Afterword: Transforming Transportation - After the Fall" which deals with a review of the issues discussed in the book in light of the 2008 Financial Crisis. Unfortunately it seems to have been written hastily and it does not present much value added, reflecting a very pessimistic view of the near future (Is there a deception with the Obama Administration?)

This book is a series of essays on the history of our present mix of transportation options in the United States and a comparison of possible alternatives for private transportation. The authors are both public policy advisors from California. They examine a wide range of topics, including the rise in popularity of SUVs and light trucks in the US market, the advantages and disadvantages of different forms of biofuels, climate change, peak oil, the history of California's special regulations for the auto industry, and various paths China might take for planning personal transportation for its citizens.

I found portions of the book to be quite informative and interesting, especially the discussion of how a loophole in emissions standards was a major factor in enabling SUVs and light trucks to dominate the US vehicle market. The authors' dismissal of impending peak oil concerns in light of enormous reserves of other forms of fossil fuels that can be converted to liquid fuels is quite thought-provoking. However, the presentation of the material is often overly slanted, and the California-centric focus can be annoying for those of us who have no intention of living in the mythical promised land. It is not clear who the intended audience for the book is supposed to be. Certainly, the chapter on Chinese transportation seems to be an article written specifically for Chinese transportation planners, in which, for instance, they use the term "rural vehicles" but provide only a brief description at the end of the paragraph for non-Chinese readers as to what kind of vehicles this term refers to. Perhaps the remainder of the book is intended for transportation policy makers beyond China and California.

Tables in the book include data updated through the summer of 2008, when gas prices were at a historical high. Now that gas prices have plummeted, certain of the authors' predictions no longer sound quite as convincing. However, their recommendation that governments establish a price floor for liquid fuels would certainly go a long way towards convincing people to choose more efficient transportation options. Overall, the book provides key information for those interested in transportation policy, but the text could have been more carefully edited before publication.

"Two Billion Cars" by Daniel Sperling and Deborah Gordon is a clear-eyed but somewhat wonkish assessment of the automobile industry and how its ongoing development might shape the future for ourselves and the planet, for better or worse. This well-researched, accessibly-written book provides useful background material and analysis that is invaluable to anyone who wants to understand how we have arrived at our current predicament and how we can get a sustainable future if we want it.

The authors laud the auto industry for its proficiency gained from over 100 years of manufacturing know-how but severely criticizes its lack of vision and innovation. Detroit has long profited from its oligopolistic control of markets and government protections but has demonstrated little concern for our dependence on oil or the deleterious effects of global warming. Interestingly, the authors reveal how manufacturers have successfully stoked our private desires for security and prestige through the marketing of highly-polluting SUVs and high-performance sports cars while ignoring the public desire for energy independence and a clean environment. Yet, the authors reason that similar desires might well be channelled towards the adoption of more sustainable options, citing the Toyota Prius as an example of how markets can be created among consumers who want to be identified by their environmental consciousness -- even if such a product merely represents an incremental step along the path to sustainability.

In a book that mostly steers clear of politics, the discussion about California subtly makes the point that people and politics matter. The authors explain that the state's unique development path, pollution problems and relative freedom from industry influence gave birth to the modern environmental movement including international leadership on the regulation of automotive emissions. The inclusion of a short Foreward to the book by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger underscores the reality that for most Californians, these issues transcend partisanship; in the state of California, it is a widespread belief that the benefits of personal mobility must be weighed against the ill effects of the automobile on people's health and the environment. The authors go on to show how the demand for clean air by California voters has resulted in state regulations that have repeatedly forced the industry to make a better product. The authors go on to desribe how the entrepreneurial culture of the West Coast has lately taken on a host of challenging transportation industry problems, with the prospect of improving fuels and related technologies that could assist in cleaning up the planet.

The authors help us understand how China must enter the calculus; as the world's largest polluter, China simply cannot replicate the U.S. development model. We learn how Chinese manufacturers are taking the lead on producing low-cost electric bikes which, the authors speculate, might position the Chinese to soon produce a viable electric car; although the authors also admit that the Chinese disregard for intellectual property largely keeps research and development offshore. Still, the authors contend that the West must cooperate with the Chinese to help it develop cleaner industries for the sake of everyone, pointing to the U.K.'s partnership with China on developing carbon capture technology to limit greenhouse gas emissions as an example of the kind of agreement that others might follow.

Incredibly, for a book that was finalized in late 2008, changes have occurred so rapidly that this book will soon require a major revision. U.S. automaker's sales have collapsed as a consequence of their reliance on manufacturing gas-guzzlers, casting doubt on the Big Three's ability to survive, much less smoothly transition to more environmentally-friendly business models as the authors had hoped. In the U.S. Congress, John Dingell's chairmanship of a committee that controls energy and global warming policy has been replaced by Henry Waxman, signaling an important power shift away from Detroit to California and which should allow more sustainable policies to gain currency. BMW's announcement that its all-electric Mini will be available in 2009 with mass production to follow in 2010 suggests that the transition to e-drive cars has already begun while proving that the advanced industrial economies are still highly capable of leadership and innovation. To the extent that these latest developments reinforce the soundness of the authors' proposals -- including the production of more fuel-efficient cars and fuels, the imposition of taxes and fees to reward good consumers and punish wasteful behaviors, the implementation of zoning laws to discourage sprawl, and more -- the ideas contained in this book can help us steer our way through the seemingly endless stream of industrial, financial and environmental crises and towards a greener future for all.

I highly recommend this compelling and thought-provoking book to everyone.

The authors of Two Billion Cars make various valid statements with the most revealing being what I knew all along ' the Japanese manufacturers are no more innocent than we are in this global fuel consumption mess and the big oil companies really don't care as long as the profits keep rolling in. The original Honda CVCC I drove back in the 70s routinely got 40+ mpg but my friend's new CR-V barely gets 20 mpg in the city. What progress is this?

Another example of this is the Daihatsu line of motor vehicles sold in the U.S. in the early to mid 90s. I owned the 3 cylinder Charade that got over 50 mpg in the highway and low to mid 40s in the city. What happened to them? Toyota say a threat, bought the company, and packed them off to Australia. They still get 50 mpg (without an electric motor, by the way) but you can't buy them here and it doesn't appear Toyota will budge on the topic (they have ignored my emails concerning the reintroduction of this car in the U.S.).

Did have to laugh about Arnold Schwarzenegger giving the introduction. This is the same guy who got the very first Hummer as a gift from GM and drove it for years. He's also the governor of a state the claims they are energy conscious and requires all new cars to meet stringent standards, but allows exemptions for cars built in the 70s and before that were and still are horrible polluters.

As for the authors' claim that the Toyota Prius is a good idea, I find fault in this. The battery technology still has not progressed to the point where these cars make financial and long term ecological sense. The battery packs in these cars is maybe good for 8 years or so at which point you have several batteries to replace. Battery technology is still hit or miss so you now several batteries to dispose of and the recycling of these packs is still in its infancy. You did get great gas mileage and saved the ozone from pollution, but now you're going to pollute the earth with battery sludge. Even worse, these battery packs cost thousands to replace in a vehicle that is now essentially junk. You now have not only a battery pack to dispose of but a whole vehicle to go along with it.

If you want efficient electric vehicles, how about the electric busses in Europe that run on overhead electric lines? No batteries at all, but even these have faults. Where do you get the power from? ' burning coal and other fuels, that's where. You end up polluting the atmosphere anyway. Some European nations use nuclear power but this presents the problem of proper nuclear waste disposal and the possibility of a meltdown. Ask the former residents of Chernobyl how they feel about nuclear power (if you can find one). [Note: In all fairness, Chernobyl was the exception to the rule, the European plants have been a tad bit more successful in not having disasters.]

The authors' assumption that greed is a large player in this mess is dead on. Why make fuel efficient or alternative fuel vehicles when gas in the U.S. is relatively cheap? Oil and car companies have been paying lip service to fuel efficiency for years without showing solid results. Car companies kept building what the public demanded with no regard for the future consequences.

Want proof? How about the Chevy Aveo? Here's a car that GM claims is a mileage champ. Too bad it's not a GM model. It's made by Daewoo in Korea and is merely rebadged for U.S. sales. GM did this for years with the Geo line. Those cars were made by Toyota and Suzuki, not GM. Ford is guilty as is Toyota. Ever hear of the Toyota Matrix? It's also known as the Pontiac Vibe. One and the same. Ever drive a Geo Prism? It's was also known as the Toyota Corolla. I was surprised to pop the hood on a Toyota Yaris only to see some emblems that looked suspiciously like the old Daihatsu logos I had seen earlier.

Want further proof? Look at the Lexus and Infiniti line of motor vehicles. Here are some gas hogs that, oddly enough, are built by Toyota and Nissan. The expensive Lexus and Infiniti lines get the gas hogs while concurrent vehicles by Toyota and Nissan get much better mileage. Acura, a division of Honda, is just a Honda with a bigger engine and price tag plus worse mileage.

The answer is not as easy as the authors insist. Grain based fuel alternatives have recently driven up food prices. The authors insistence on jacking up fuel taxes to discourage driving fossil fuel vehicles will only result in an eventual collapse of the major oil companies, either that or they'll dominate the alternative fuel markets with the money they've made on gas and the end result will still be a dependence of one form or another on the current companies we have.

A prime example of how the best intentions go awry is the intention of the government to foster the use of fuel efficient diesel passenger vehicles. I looked at a 2006 VW New Beetle turbo diesel that got 40+ mpg on the highway but government taxes pushed the cost of diesel way beyond my financial reach. After factoring in the 75 cent price difference over gas I figured out my gas vehicle would be cheaper to run than the diesel even though it (the diesel car) got better mileage.

What's the answer? Fact is, there is no easy answer. We could develop hydrogen fueled vehicles but until we can convert hydrogen on the fly or increase the number of filling stations, this is years off the mark.

One of the things that I find lacking in the CO2 debate is reference-able data. 2BC ("Two Billion Cars") has a lot of charts, tables and other material that is clearly presented and reliably referenced. Additionally, the back of the book is devoted to a long reference list that allows one to easily access the source material. For all that, the authors have done a very good job of presenting the issues and some of their proposed answers in a level fashion. That is not to say that they are totally without bias. They clearly view California as the leader in governmental efforts with respect to the environment and they practically spit when discussing the Detroit automakers. Now, I'm a political conservative (Republican), so I may be a bit more sensitive to these perceived leanings than some. And, I would have to agree with the author's point, but it is the one place where their tone seems significantly more colored than in other places.

In conclusion, very readable, lots of data, and after reading this you should be able to cream 99% of the folks you discuss the subject with if the debate actually allows you to use data and logic.