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128 of 136 people found the following review helpful:
2.0 out of 5 stars
Be Very Careful of the Investment Recommendations, May 16, 2009
This review is from: The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide: Protect Your Savings, Boost Your Income, and Grow Wealthy Even in the Worst of Times (Hardcover)
I have a great deal of respect for the author's intellect and courage in predicting various economic events. However, the investment advice given in this book is not fully presented by the author and may actually be harmful to some investors.
In Chapter 7, he recommends creating your own hedge positions using ETFs. An experienced and knowledgeable investor will easily understand this section and know, even though it isn't included, of the trade-offs created by the use of inverse index ETFs. But, for most readers, the concept of inverse index funds is probably new to them and, although there are a few warnings in later chapters, they should be provided with the hypothetical investment returns if the market were to rise.
Basically, inverse funds move in the opposite direction of the index that they track, so if the inverse ETF tracks the S&P500 and the S&P500 drops 10%, the inverse fund would theoretically go up 10%. The problem with the illustrations, on pages 108-109, is that the potential returns are only shown for how the portfolios would perform if Mr. Weiss is correct and the market continues to fall. He does not show what happens when the market goes up 10%. I would highly recommend that anyone attempting to implement any of the recommended portfolios perform their own analysis or find a competent fee-only financial planner or fee-only investment advisor to help them. I'm not against hedging, but if you don't know what you're doing and you don't monitor this type of portfolio, you might get a rude awakening after any market surge. As described in the book, when the index rises 10%, the single leveraged, or 1X, inverse fund will drop 10%. The 2X drops 20% and the 3X would fall 30%. If we have a year like 2003 and the index does almost 30%, the leveraged 3X fund would drop almost 90%. In essence, the author is recommending that the investor give up some of the gain in good markets to hedge against those times when the market falls. This is commonly used by institutional investors, but they typically use professional advisors to handle the day-to-day details of a hedged portfolio. These funds are intended for daily trading, not long-term holding. The funds are designed to move inversely to the index on a daily basis. For longer periods, volatility drag causes the returns of these funds to vary, sometimes dramatically, from the index. See the comments below this review.
(Since writing this review last month, FINRA, the regulatory agency for the brokerage industry and its' products released a Regulatory Notice #09-31 regarding Leveraged ETF's. You can view this release by going to the FINRA website, selecting Investment Professionals, Regulation (upper left) click the word "notices" and download the pdf. I would strongly suggest any investor review the FINRA notice and fully review the leveraged ETF products prior to considering any implementation of the investment plan described in The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide.)
It is possible this information is available to subscribers to his newsletter or on his website, but you should know the anticipated outcome of these portfolio's if he's wrong about a continuing depression. The rest of the book offers some good advice on what he believes will happen and how to handle it. Often, the investment recommendations are dependent on the reader subscribing to a newsletter or email so that they can be notified when the time is "right" to make changes in their 401k, investment accounts, etc.
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54 of 56 people found the following review helpful:
1.0 out of 5 stars
Treat the Book as Light Entertainment. As Advice It Could Leave You Broke!, March 4, 2010
This review is from: The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide: Protect Your Savings, Boost Your Income, and Grow Wealthy Even in the Worst of Times (Hardcover)
I have subscribed for several months to Martin Weiss's free Internet newsletter "Money and Markets". Thus I have read many of the ideas brought together in this book. I am amazed so few people bother to research the backgrounds of guys like Martin before plunging headlong into investments that can make them poor.
This is not to say that Mr. Weiss is deliberately defrauding anyone. It is conceivable that, like prominent authors such as Howard J. Ruff and Gary North in 1979-1982, Weiss believes what he writes. Nor am I suggesting that the US economy is in great shape and won't plunge us into another major equities market crash soon. One may accept both premises and still believe Mr. Weiss's advice to be unsound.
Ultimately, the "proof of the pudding" is in the eating. Many of Howard Ruff's followers discovered to their personal woe that the economic world of 1980 wasn't coming to an end in quite the manner that their prophet predicted. Gold did not appreciate to $2,000 per ounce and gold stocks did not provide leverage on this predicted explosion in hard asset values. Silver crashed 90%+ after the Hunt Brothers' effort to corner the silver market failed. Quite a number of Ruff's investors crashed along with their money and investors who follow Weiss could follow a similar trajectory.
Weiss' advice might be assessed from the investment results he has already produced for people who have paid thousands of dollars for his advice. In this context, I suggest that readers investigate the following:
ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEEDING File No. 3-12341 Securities and Exchange Commission, June22, 2006. This proceeding details findings supporting administrative penalties of over $2 million dollars assessed against Mr. Weiss and his associate Larry Edelson. A finding of the Cease and Desist order was "...during the relevant time period, many subscribers who followed each Weiss Research trading recommendation - as Weiss Research encouraged its subscribers to do - experienced overall returns that were substantially lower than Weiss Research's profit examples and most actually lost money." Also pertinent was the finding that Weiss and Edelson acted as Investment Advisers under SEC definitions, at a time when not licensed to do so. You're going to trust these guys to guide your financial future? What are you thinking?
Another source appears to have been written by former investors of Martin Weiss, in the UK. The site features a long-term trading history for investments recommended by Mr. Weiss to his paying clients. This source confirms that Weiss investors have persistently lost money. Search Google for the term "trading and legal history" plus "Martin Weiss".
Recent issues of Weiss Research "Money and Markets" make claims of "guaranteed profits" by applying a type of technical analysis called "cycle theory". This theory is supposedly validated by data analysis of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, now directed by Richard Mogey. However, multiple online references reveal that the methods of the Foundation have been discredited by legitimate economists since it was chartered under Herbert Hoover. As but one example, the Foundation claims to be able to predict major economic shifts from the study of over 200 years of economic history. Such a claim is foolish to the extreme. The structures and processes of our economy changed radically between any two 50 year periods of that time. Thus there is no underlying cause-and-effect mechanism from which to derive an "economic cycle" that applies to the full period. One might as well be dredging up investment advice from a seance.
Thus to the reader: treat the book as light entertainment. If you act on its advice, you could find yourself poor within a few years.
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104 of 119 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Comprehensive survival guide for the depression, April 13, 2009
This review is from: The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide: Protect Your Savings, Boost Your Income, and Grow Wealthy Even in the Worst of Times (Hardcover)
Weiss' "The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide" is a smart, well-written book full of sound financial principles, all of which make it worth buying. Using historical examples, recent trends, and advice from dad, Weiss brings a well-rounded understanding of the current economic crisis to the reader in a simple, easy-to-understand fashion.
His advice is summed up in a couple quotes: the depression was inevitable because of the housing bust, the mortgage meltdown, and the biggest debt crisis in history. The housing bust was cased by Fannie and Freddie Mac (as Weiss explains, "some of the largest speculative bubbles of all time were born out of government-sponsored monopolies"). And we can "kick the can down the road" (meaning we can bailout broken firms and "stimulate" the economy, but that will just delay the inevitable major crash.
But we can't do anything about our governments' reckless behavior until the next election, so Weis offers immediate advice to readers that they can do somehting about: save, reduce debt and sell stocks (the latter one might not be such a hot idea since it appears the markets have at least started a major rebound). He gives very good advaice about looking for the bottom of the economic retraction: look for the government to capitulate (give up trying to save the world!). He recommends investing in etfs (or reverse etfs) and treasury-only MM Funds.
This is a great read and highly recommended, though Weiss neglects a major contributor to the problem: the Federal Reserve. If you're looking for a bit more unconventional but very beneficial techniques for thriving in this economy check out Surviving the Second Great Depression: How to Take Advantage of the Government That Is Trying to Take Advantage of You. For a better summary of what got us here check out Meltdown: A Free-Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse.
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