Customer Reviews

Understanding Probability: Chance Rules in Everyday Life

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Henk Tijms is one of the world's leading experts in applied probability. This book is a wonderful introduction to probability theory. The second half of book a requires basic differntial calculus but beyond that only high school algebra is required. First half of book motivates probabilistic thinking through many fascinating examples and problems. Second half of book fills in the rigor. What sets the book apart is that unlike most books every problem and example are interesting. Another excellent feature is the fact that simulation is used throughout to develop probabilistic inttiution. All in all a wonderful book.
I write textbooks in the field but several examples in the book (such as Poisson approximation to the famous birthday problem) taught me some new tricks!

I am a physician who uses probabilty and statistics in research and I am always interested in finding textbooks that are such effective teaching instruments that they are suitable for self-study. Unfortunately work has prevented me from finishing this book for now and so my comments are based on an incomplete reading of the book but my initial impression was positive and I thought it was worth sharing. But it is one of the best books I have found. It is a nice balance between mathematical rigor and expository writing and I very much appreciated historical anecdotes that come in handy when one wonders if one has what it takes to finish the book and master the subject-specifically how Leibniz had difficulty calculating the probability of rolling a certain number with dice. I was particularky impressed because I had a very negative impression of some of the "classics" that will remain unnamed that are undoubtedly super colelctions of information and concepts but rather poor vehicals of instruction. I have to admit that I definitely prefer a more expository style in which the author is really speaking to you. The "high-density" books are not for me. So I very much appreciated professor Tijms expository approach.

Highly recommended.
I could not put this book down. Working through the colorful problems in this book is a great way to learn and apply basic probability principles. I've have never seen a probability book with such good examples.

This is the book for understanding and learning probability! I used this lively introduction to probability in class and I found it a pleasure to read it. The challenging problems and the way they are tackled using computer simulations before providing analytic solutions, gave the students a lot of insights. Also the key concepts and ideas from probability theory are treated in a very clear way. I wished I had seen this book before.

This book very clearly explains why probability works and how to apply it. The first six chapters help the beginner develop a "feel for probabilities", using wonderful examples from real life. In the ensuing chapters the book gives a very clear explanation of the basics of probability theory. The author shows a high degree of awareness of the difficulties commonly encountered by beginning students of probability. He skilfully makes use of all conceivable devices to facilitate understanding of concepts such as density functions and conditional expectations. A great book!

While the examples illustrating probability are taken from everyday life, they are not presented at a level that the general reader can understand. The later examples of continuous distributions involve complex integrals, including multiple integrations. While some short computer programs are included, surprisingly, they are written in Pascal, a programming language that is almost obsolete in education.
If you can handle the advanced mathematics, then you will find this an excellent book for the study of basic probability events. As the historical record affirms, there is no area of mathematics that is more capable of stumping even advanced mathematicians than probability. In many cases, the "intuitive" answer is wrong because the intuition is improperly applied. The best example of this is "The Monty Hall problem." It is modeled over the "big deal of the day" in the television game show "Let's Make a Deal." There are three doors, one of which contains a very valuable prize and the other two duds. You are given the opportunity to pick one and after your selection, the contents of one of the others, which is one of the duds, is revealed. Then, you are given the opportunity to alter your selection to the other one. Tijms works through this problem several different ways, conclusively demonstrating that the odds are in fact better if you alter your selection.
A large number of other examples of probabilistic reasoning, both correct and fallacious, are given and worked out in complete detail. Problems are included in the chapters and solutions to the odd-numbered ones are included in an appendix. This book is an excellent choice for advanced courses in probability for math majors who have completed the calculus sequence.

A pleasant surprise; a book that makes technical ideas (probability theory) easy to understand. Most books on probability give you lots of equations, but they don't tell you how to apply them to real situations.
But here, basic principles are illustrated by colorful examples (gambling, lotteries, etc.) and use of history; both the layman and the expert will find nice things in this book to read.

The back of the book says "high school algebra is really all the mathematical background you need" and "for students undertaking a first course in probability". But I disagree, the math is tough for a reader like me who has only taken 1st year university math (I graduated with a finance degree). Another reviewer comments are more accurate: "not presented at a level that the general reader can understand" and "This book is an excellent choice for advanced courses in probability for math majors who have completed the calculus sequence". I don't mean to disparage the book - especially because I couldn't get through it, but just letting potential buyers know what to expect, so the book can hit it's correct target audience.

This book is well worth its money, and indeed all you need is high school algebra and some basic calculus.
Henk Tjims wrote indeed a perfect book, which are rare to find. I started this book without any knowledge of what even a random variable was, and now it has allowed me to master markov chains. Henk Tjims provides several examples, and even excellent problems at the end of each chapter. He links probability to real life, and shows all its applications. It is this style of writing which makes me recommend this book: many learn mathematics without applying it, but what is the point of knowing something you cannot apply?
The book is written for the general reader, and the author even tells us a bit about history, states several sources for us to read. What really interested me was his "further reading" section at the back of the boo, which allowed me to further advance and learn more about probability.
The book is a work of art, and it is among the best books for an introduction to probability theory.

This was a textbook for a class. It is just what I needed at almost half the price.