The United States and a Rising China: Strategic and Military Implications (1999) [Paperback]

Roger Cliff (Author), Abram N. Shulsky (Author), Zalmay M. Khalilzad (Author), Daniel L. Byman (Author), David T. Orletsky (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: September 7, 1999 | ISBN-10: 0833027514 | ISBN-13: 978-0833027511 | Edition: 1

China has been embarked on a process of reform and modernization that has led to unprecedented economic development. The goal is to make China a developed country, which would, among other things, raise the standard of living and prepare the base for a strong military. The Chinese leadership considers good relations with the United States to be strongly advisable, if not absolutely necessary, but sovereignty concerns (especially with regard to Taiwan) could cause tensions in the Sino-U.S. relationship. China could emerge, by 2015, as a formidable power, one that might offer an alternative to the current U.S. role as the region's preferred security partner and its ultimate security manager.

Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher

This report summarizes the findings of a multiyear project entitled"Chinese Defense Modernization and Its Implications for the UnitedStates Air Force." It focuses on the fundamental question of howU.S. policy should deal with China, a rising power that could have thecapability, in the not too distant future, of challenging the U.S. positionin East Asia and the U.S. military, political and economic accessto that dynamic and important region. It then specifically addressesthe implications for the U.S. Air Force (USAF), in the areas of shapingthe environment, deterrence and war fighting. This summary drawsheavily on the other work conducted in the course of the study. Theresults of some of this work has been, or will soon be, published inother RAND documents.This project is being conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Programof Project AIR FORCE under the sponsorship of the Deputy Chief ofStaff for Air and Space Operations, U.S. Air Force (AF/XO) and theCommander, Pacific Air Forces (PACAF/CC). This report should beof interest to members of the national security community and tointerested members of the general public. Comments are welcomedand may be addressed to the project leader, Dr. Zalmay Khalilzad.PROJECT AIR FORCEProject AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the Air Force federallyfunded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies andanalyses. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses ofpolicy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combatreadiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy Defense.

About the Author

Zalmay Khalilzad (Ph.D., Political Science, University of Chicago) was formerly the leader of Project Air Force's Strategy and Doctrine Program at Rand. He was assistant undersecretary of defense for policy planning during the Bush administration. Khalilzad joined the White House staff on Monday, May 14, 2001, as special assistant to the president and senior director at the National Security Council. Daniel L. Byman (Ph.D., political science, M.I.T.) is a policy analyst at Rand whose research interests include modeling ethnic conflict, assessing Middle East politics and security issues, developing countermeasures against terrorism, reevaluating air power theory, and other general issues related to U.S. foreign policy. Roger Cliff (Ph.D., International Relations, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University) is an Associate Political Scientist, Rand, Washington DC. Areas of research include U.S. policy toward China, Chinese arms transfers, technological progress in China, and Chinese military technology. David T. Orletsky (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, SM, Aeronautics and Astronautics) is an Associate Engineer, at Rand, Washington, DC. His research interests include Chinese defense modernization; command and control sensor, weapon, and communication technology; and USAF operational analysis.

Product Details

• Paperback: 134 pages
• Publisher: Rand Publishing; 1 edition (September 7, 1999)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0833027514
• ISBN-13: 978-0833027511
• Product Dimensions: 8.8 x 5.9 x 0.3 inches
• Shipping Weight: 8.8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,922,571 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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19 of 19 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Engage, but Hedge, August 6, 2000

By 

Charles F. Hawkins - See all my reviews

This review is from: The United States and a Rising China: Strategic and Military Implications (1999) (Paperback)

This Rand Corporation report, prepared for the U.S. Air Force, presents a tight, concise analysis of the current and future Sino-U.S. relationship. Zalmay Khalilzad and company don't present anything new or earth shaking, nor should they have since the purpose was to analyze and present information useful to policy makers. It's a good Rand report, as most are, and is a good reference -- reassuring to those who have spent time studying the issues, and informative to those just embarking on careers as defense analysts.

The central theme of "The United States and a Rising China" is that our policy toward China should be a combination of the current "engagement" approach and "containment" -- "congagement" is the term coined by the authors. This modified engagement/containment approach recognizes China as a rising power, one which will have a gross national product equivalent to the United States in a few decades or so. It encourages continuation of enhanced economic, political and cultural ties with China, but would be "less solicitous of Chinese sensitivities on such issues as human rights." The key to success of such a policy would be to maintain a balance in the application of its co-principles of engagement and containment.

"The United States and a Rising China" covers these topics in some detail: determinants of Chinese national security behavior (which I found of interest); China's military modernization (which is a good summary, but lacks depth); and U.S. policy options (which are worth a look).

Perhaps most valuable is the analysis that looks at future military implications of a more powerful China. It's not that they would pose a threat as a peer competitor. Rather, China appears to be increasingly capable of projecting power in a limited way around its peripheral areas while still maintaining enough of a strategic capability to give caution.

So, the recommendation of the authors is to continue engagement with China, but to also hedge our bets against a future, possibly threatning regional power. The Rand analysts look out only to 2015 in assessing military capabilities of China. I found this a little bit of an analytical hedge, since Chinese analysts themselves are looking out 20 to 30 years with respect to a true military revolution in technological, doctrinal and organizational change; and the U.S. Air Force itself has studied future military capabilities to 2025.