Customer Reviews

Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years, Updated and Expanded Edition

5 star:		(132)
4 star:		(23)
3 star:		(5)
2 star:		(6)
1 star:		(34)

 

 

Singer and Avery have put together an amazing summary of research from an extremely wide variety of sources that bear on the question of the Earth's temperature variations. They pay particular attention to the 1,500 year (+/- 500) cycle discovered by Willi Dansgaard, Hans Oeschger, (in Greenland ice cores) and the Claude Lorius team (in Antarctic ice cores).

Since the 1,500 year cycle was discovered in the early 1980's it's general characteristics have been confirmed by measurements in: tree rings (living, preserved and fossilized), pollen, coral, glaciers, boreholes, stalagmites, tree lines, and sea sediments. The most recent cycles have been recorded in human history with forced migrations, starvation, and disease during the cold portion of the cycle and greater population, expanded farm land, greater crop variety, and extra building during the warm portion.

The causes of the 1,500 year cycle are not well understood although 600 of them have been identified in the last million years. This permits us to be relatively confident that we have been moving into the warm phase of the cycle for the last 150 years. It also suggests that we may have one or two degrees more warming if we are to get to the typical high of the warm phase.

Although the warm phase of the cycle has been typically more regular than the cold phase, it does not move steadily to a peak and then fall off, but rather moves abruptly higher at the start of the warm phase followed by highly irregular (but modestly higher) temperatures for hundreds of years.

The range of evidence the authors bring in to characterizes the 1,500 year cycle is stunning and their end-of-chapter notes (over 500) make this book the obvious starting point to study the whole issue of global warming / cooling. They have also included a well written 11 page glossary.

The chapter on "The Sun-Climate Connection" was probably written before the publication of Hendrik Svensmark and team's experimental paper on low level cloud formation "Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions" (17 August 2006). Although they cite his previous work this latest paper adds experimental verification under controlled laboratory conditions for the solar winds participation in the formation of low level (high albedo) clouds. Once again carbon dioxide was conspicuous as a non-participant.

The authors include a chapter on the Kyoto Protocol and to no ones surprise predict it's unlamented expiration in 2012. They also offer a scenario for why the Russians adopted the Protocol in spite of knowing that it is environmentally worthless.

Those who have adopted the religion of anthropogenic global warming will not like the material presented in this summary, however science does march on and experimental evidence overrules hypotheses even if embodied in expensive computer simulations.

Everyone interested in global temperature trends will be well rewarded by reading this book.

Authors make the case:
1. Global warming is real.
2. Global warming is mild, not severe, as the "climate alarmists" claim. The major points for the "Man-made Warming activists" are based on Computer modeling results and surface temperature measurements. The temperature measurement problem is challenged in chapter 9 and 11, and alternative long-term temperature theories are presented in Chapter 9, from proxies such as ice cores, tree rings, seabed sediment deposits, et al. The Computer Modeling problem is challenged in Chapter 11.
3. Global warming is slow, not rapid, as the "climate alarmists" claim. Trend is up by 0.125 degrees C per decade. (Pg. 11)
4. Global warming is not primarily caused by CO2. (Both the "Roman Warming" of 200BC - 600AD and the "Medieval Warming" of 900AD - 1300AD were warmer than the current "Modern Warming" of 1850AD to present. Since "about 80% of the carbon dioxide from human activities entered the air after 1940". Therefore, those earlier warming periods were NOT caused by burning fossil fuels and thus not related to increased CO2 levels. The Greenhouse Theory of man-induced high CO2 levels as the cause of the Modern Warming is thereby shown to be most unlikely.
5. Global warming periods (and global cooling periods) are primarily caused by energy out-put changes from the local star. (The major problem with this theory is that humans know incredibly little about the long-term variations in solar properties.) One scientist "reported that the sun's radiation has increased by nearly 0.05 percent per decade since the late 1970's." He has "used data from three different NASA ACRIM satellites monitoring the sun to assemble a twenty-five year record of total solar radiation from 1978 to 2003. The trend is significant because the total energy output is so huge. A variation of 0.05 percent in its output is equal to all human energy use." (pg. 192)
6. The solar heat radiance fluctuations are extremely small, 0.1% over 20 years, but this small variance is amplified by earths' atmosphere. This amplification process is "by at least two factors: (1) cosmic rays creating more or fewer of the low, cooling clouds in the earth's atmosphere; and (2) solar-driven ozone changes in the stratosphere creating more or less heating of the lower atmosphere." Pg. 192.
7. The solar heat fluctuations are cyclic, and are corresponding to a 1470 year climate cycle. This cycle is apparently related to the known sun-spot cycles of 87 and 210 years respectively.
8. The 1470 year climate cycle is verified by historical evidence, and by scientific evidence such as ice cores, tree rings, seabed sediment deposits, et al.

The positive aspects of this book are:
1. Many scientists and scientific organizations and their works are quoted and referenced. The Chapter Endnotes total 524.
2. The history is interesting.
3. The authors are scientists not journalists, per se.
4. The writing is clear, and the main points are easy to grasp.
5. There are no cheap-shots or name-calling toward persons or groups that are in the so-called "climate alarmists" camp. There are only a few minor rhetorical swipes that, in my view, are warranted.

The negative aspects are:
1. Too much ground to cover. (Although I could say this was a positive, since its sometimes limited explanations allowed good readability.)
2. Too little direct evidence of the solar-influence-on-climate theory, but that evidence may not be available until after hundreds or thousands of years of sun-study.

Overall: Highly recommended.

Book Review - "Unstoppable Global Warming--Every 1500 Years."

The authors are S. Fred Singer and Dennis T. Avery. Singer, a veteran climatologist and author of numerous books, monographs and technical papers, is Professor Emeritus of Environmental Science at the University of Virginia and also serves as Distinguished Research Professor at George Mason University.
Among many other accomplishments, he was the first director of the US National Weather Satellite Service. Avery is a senior research fellow at the Hudson Institute (a conservative think tank)and has written on environmental matters for many years.

Singer and Avery accomplish two objectives in this book. First, they explain a new theory of climate change, originated by Danish scientist Henrik Svensmark (his book "The Chilling Stars" is also highly recommended). This theory proposes that the earth's temperature is strongly influenced by small, recurring changes in solar intensity. These periodic changes, in conjunction with cosmic ray activity, cause variability in the earth's cloud coverage, an important factor in determining average temperature.

Second, and equally important, the authors shatter the claims of the global warming alarmists by systematically disproving every extreme claim, including rapidly rising sea levels, devastating drought, species extinction, increased incidence of disease, the "tipping point" argument--you name it. In addition to demonstrating that there is no scientific "consensus" on climate change (as if that were even important) the book also exposes the disgusting dishonesty of the environmentalists, politicians, and business leaders who are using global warming hysteria to gain power.

The book's greatest virtue is its authors' use of concrete evidence. Singer and Avery cite over 100 scientific papers, pointing out that they excluded hundreds of others due to lack of space. These references cite physical evidence found in polar ice cores, sea sediment from all the oceans, fossilized plankton and pollen, tree rings, cave stalagmites, and even the tooth enamel of dead Vikings. All the evidence points to a definite temperature cycle of approximately 1500 years. Within these cycles, there are many temperature variations, more extreme than the current modest warming, that obviously have nothing to do with industrial carbon dioxide. The authors even cite strong evidence that we may be on the verge of another multi-decade cooling cycle.

Read "Unstoppable Global Warming" if you are interested in the science and politics of climate change.

This book should be required reading for every journalist, politician, teacher, and everyone else because the failure to understand the subject of global warming will cause needless expense through bad allocation of limited financial resources. The authors critically review and quote from the world's reputable scientific literature on the subject.[i.e. Nobel Prize winners and others] They reconstruct the meteorlogic history of the planet using geologic data, [ice cores, ocean sediments,etc,],biomass data [tree rings, fossils, seeds, etc.], animal ecology, written history of climate changes dating back hundreds of years, social anthropology, physical anthropology and medical history to prove the theory that global wearming occurs naturally every 1500 years regardless of CO2 emissions produced by man. They also review and analyze opposing points of view and give the alternatives if CO2 emissions would be drastically cut. This book should assauge the fear that humans and multiple species of animals are all going to drown in a great deluge of melting ice, die of thirst or famine all caused by man made global warming. The authors take a complex scientific subject and make it understandable for the lay person.

I always tend to laugh out loud when the crowd insisting that global warming is a 100% by-product of industrial society try to shout down a book disagreeing with their point of view. This volume is a case in point. It provides some very interesting food for thought whether one agrees or disagrees. But then the Environmental-Left would probably put Avery on trial for crimes against Eco-Orthodoxy.

I found the book mumbo-jumbo free, and as someone old enough to recall being told in geography class that the Sahara desert was once a jungle, this helps to explain why climate changes.

One of the othe reviewers makes a note about British wine production. A fair comment. But the English Wine Producers website notes:

"The revival had to wait for the arrival of pioneers who wanted to disprove the theory that wine could not be made from grapes grown outside in our climate. A combination of new varieties, more suitable growing techniques, better disease control and an acceptance by the public of the style of wines that those varieties produced, were the key elements in that revival."

So technology, scientific evolution of the grapes themselves, and marketing all combined to overcome the British climate. I didn't see mention of planetary warming as a cause.

This is a good book that will fuel the great debate - but only if your mind is open enough to realize there are two sides to the discussion. If you mind is closed on thsi subject, look elsewhere.

Mrs. Avery and Singer provide an excellent readable and well documented book on the global warming hoax. The reader can only conclude that this book is an invaluable resource on the topic of global warming. The work refers to a vast amount of scientific research in a wide variety of scientific journals indicating a natural sunspot magnetic wave is causing what little global warming exists. Man created carbon dixoide has very little effect on the earth's climate.

Avery and Singer go further by providing an in depth expose of the fallacious research that alledgedly supports man made global warming. In particular the authors make an incisive investigation into the so called hockey stick hypothesis of unprecedented recent warming hoax widely enunciated by the UN's climate change panel. This hoax was first exposed by two skilled and courageous Canadian researchers - McIntyre and McKitrick.

Pseudoscientists and others with a vested interest in controlling the global economy by use of the global warming hoax will not like this work. However informed readers concerned with human welfare and human progress will find this book invaluable. This book should be read by all Amercians and really by everone else in the world.

I am a retired systems engineer and I study the science of global warming as a hobby. This book is the best and most complete summary of the subject of global warming that I've seen. In addition, they have written it in terms that a non-scientist can understand. The original science papers are referenced for those wanting to dig deeper. I heartily recommend it to both scientists and non-scientists. Its an informative easy read without the hysteria associated with many works on this subject. The co-author, S. Fred Singer, is a well-respected pioneer in the climatology field and has published more than four hundred technical papers and books.

Previous scientific information on global warming was inconclusive, yet for political reasons certain special interest groups have run with their little bits of data, claiming they know it all... The same groups claimed that we were facing an ice age back in the 1970's. Global warming is just their latest poster child to promote their real agenda---global control of the masses by exploiting our fear for survival!

We are in a warming period, for sure -- those are the facts. But what they are not telling you is that it is a natural event, and that humanity has actually thrived during periods of global warming, such as the rise of the Roman Empire and the european settlements of Iceland and Greenland...and during the cooling periods came the fall of the Roman Empire and the Dark Ages.

They simply want to be in control when things are thriving...and they need a common global enemy to pull it off...

Get this book and be informed -- or be controlled!

This is a highly relevant book in the overall debate on global warming. While critics will likely pan this book in typical mindless fashion, it does indeed acknowledge (as does nearly everyone in this debate) that global warming exists.

What this book examines and discusses, however, are historical trends which seem to indicate that this trend is more natural phenomenon than man-made disaster. Are humans impacting this phenomenon? It is quite likely. But is this impact significant? No one can answer this question with any degree of certainty.

The value of this book is that it takes the logical approach to this debate. Rather than viewing global warming narrowly, as so many others have, it looks at historical trends dating back to prehistoric eras.

It has long been known that the Earth experiences both major and minor periods of cooling. The last mini ice age ended in the late 1700's and we now continue to experience a warming trend coming out of the period. What will occur next? Another mini ice age, or a major one?

As the authors' argue, it is not global warming we should fear; rather, we should be wary of what must inexorably follow.

Which plant would that be, a begonia, or perhaps a pansy? Ha Ha! Actually they did not just wrap up the study. The paper from the IPCC released on FEB 2nd is not the full report - just the curiously edited "Summary for Policy Makers." The detailed report on the science won't be issued until May or so because it's not finished.

If you're wondering, "How the UN can issue a summary of a report that's not even finished?!", fear not. Believe it or not, the UN has announced that changes to the full report shall be made "to ensure consistency with the Summary for Policy Makers." ! The UN process - akin to shooting first and asking questions later - is the exact opposite of the traditional scientific method. To me it confirms that this is more a political document than a scientific one, because they have essentially given themselves license to change the conclusions of the full report due out in May to match the preconceived "conclusions" of the Summary.

I don't know about you, but when I hear that "The debate is over" when it so obviously is not, when I see good scientists labeled as fringe elements or in the pay of the oil companies when they present well reasoned dissenting views, I get really suspicious. I have the strong feeling that this is all part of some massive [...], but to what end, I have no idea.

For those of you who are not falling for the hype, just so you don't feel alone, check out:

[...]

It is a petition project sponsored by the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine and headed by a past President of the National Academy of Sciences. As quoted from the website. Is has so far been signed by over 17 THOUSAND scientists, who also feel that the debate is not over.

Oh yes, and the book? It is most excellent! If you are not afraid of honest research, read it now!

As for me, I'll be busy emitting greenhouse gasses.