A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change [Hardcover]

John L. Petersen (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: May 14, 2008

Many believe that the world is entering a time of monumental change. In this timely and insightful essay, noted futurist John L. Petersen explains how our leaders can prepare for life-altering events, such as climate change, oil shortages, financial upheaval, epidemics, or a new level of sophistication among terrorists.

Editorial Reviews

Review

"...forecasting through the visual language of contemporary news...shows readers a healthy and positive approach to today's panoply of troubles." --The Futurist, November-December 2008

About the Author

John L. Petersen, a leading futurist, founded and presently heads The Arlington Institute, a Washington, DC-area think tank that studies global futures. He is the editor of FUTUREdition and the author of Out of the Blue: Anticipating Wild Cards and Other Future Surprises, and The Road to 2015: Profiles of the Future.

Product Details

• Hardcover: 128 pages
• Publisher: Fulcrum Publishing (May 14, 2008)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1555916619
• ISBN-13: 978-1555916619
• Product Dimensions: 7.6 x 4.6 x 0.5 inches
• Shipping Weight: 6.4 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (17 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #483,904 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

John L. Petersen, a leading futurist, founded and presently heads The Arlington Institute, a Washington, DC-area think tank that studies global futures. He is the editor of FUTUREdition and the author of Out of the Blue: Anticipating Wild Cards and Other Future Surprises, and The Road to 2015: Profiles of the Future. His often unconventional perspectives on what lies ahead are the product of having worked in the military, for the National Security Council at the White House, in business, real estate development, advertising, marketing, and the nonprofit world.

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

23 of 25 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars More 2012, October 8, 2008

By 

R. Elliott Ingersoll (Kent, OH United States) - See all my reviews
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Amazon Verified Purchase

This review is from: A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change (Hardcover)

Well here is yet another 2012 book. Don't get me wrong - this is far better than most. John Petersen outlines his view of what is going wrong, what the possible scenarios are, and what directions might prove resourceful. The problem is of course that most of the things he suggests will not show up on the "radar" for most people.

There are some contradictions and fact-related problems in the book. On the one hand Petersen admits (quoting Ilya Prigogene) that no one can predict the future and that unique, novel emergents can arise that "save the day" so to speak. He never considers though that unique, novel emergents may arise that solve some problems while not fundamentally changning the power structures (e.g. a new way to make internal combustion engines so efficient that the oil reserves we have would last 5 times longer than anticipated).

Petersen also speaks glowingly of progress (with some justification) but seems to ignore the problems with things like cloning, cold fusion, and saltwater agriculture.

In the end I'd say this is a book worth reading though because it is concise and in being concise helps the reader make her or his own position an object of awareness. And once you know where you stand on some of these issues, you know what you're willing to try.

14 of 15 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars A Must Read Call to Action, June 5, 2008

By 

Jerry Berman (Washington, DC) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   

This review is from: A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change (Hardcover)

John L. Petersen, the well regarded futurist and head of The Arlington Institute, has written A Vision for 2012, a must read timely essay-length call to action for citizens and governments. In Petersen's view, global warming, fossil fuel depletion, recent economic market disruptions and more, portend massive societal and planetary disruption in the next decade. For some, the year 2012 is a year of foretold doom. 2012 is Petersen's symbolic way of saying "Stop thinking about tomorrow" as the song goes, and start thinking about today. A self-proclaimed optimist, Petersen balances one set of trend lines with another that point to scientific and technological breakthroughs, from new medicines, to the Internet, as holding out the possibility for resolving the challenges we face. But there is no way around the need for government planning and action, and here Petersen is flying on a wing and a prayer. As the book also concedes, governments and society in general usually act conservatively and plan and deal in the less painful policy world of incremental, short term advance until the crisis occurs (think about our failure to address the ticking time bomb of entitlement obligations). We have a lot of political talk about Manhattan projects to develop alternatives to oil or reduce greenhouse emissions (called for in the book) but we know that governments and the citizenry usually act after the fact (e.g. Katrina). Global cooperation is even more difficult and the United States, which the author calls on to lead, has not exactly led over the last decade (think Kyoto) Petersen hopes it can be different if we work together---using technologies like the collaborative Internet---to think, plan, and advocate for change together. Read the book.

14 of 17 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Good coverage of our future trajectory, June 10, 2008

By 

Kenneth Dabkowski - See all my reviews

This review is from: A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change (Hardcover)

This book covers many scenarios of decline, examples and data showing us the rate of accelerating change and many arguments for increasing resilience personally, as a community, and nationally. The changes we shall face on our journey to 2012 we should consider moral and solvable. These issues are drastic, human, and not bound to political party. John's book creates a good introduction to this debate - we should have the debate and together develop a brighter future.