Many believe that the world is entering a time of monumental change. In this timely and insightful essay, noted futurist John L. Petersen explains how our leaders can prepare for life-altering events, such as climate change, oil shortages, financial upheaval, epidemics, or a new level of sophistication among terrorists.
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"...forecasting through the visual language of contemporary news...shows readers a healthy and positive approach to today's panoply of troubles." --The Futurist, November-December 2008
About the Author
John L. Petersen, a leading futurist, founded and presently heads The Arlington Institute, a Washington, DC-area think tank that studies global futures. He is the editor of FUTUREdition and the author of Out of the Blue: Anticipating Wild Cards and Other Future Surprises, and The Road to 2015: Profiles of the Future.
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More About the Author
John L. Petersen, a leading futurist, founded and presently heads The Arlington Institute, a Washington, DC-area think tank that studies global futures. He is the editor of FUTUREdition and the author of Out of the Blue: Anticipating Wild Cards and Other Future Surprises, and The Road to 2015: Profiles of the Future. His often unconventional perspectives on what lies ahead are the product of having worked in the military, for the National Security Council at the White House, in business, real estate development, advertising, marketing, and the nonprofit world.
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews
23 of 25 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
Well here is yet another 2012 book. Don't get me wrong - this is far better than most. John Petersen outlines his view of what is going wrong, what the possible scenarios are, and what directions might prove resourceful. The problem is of course that most of the things he suggests will not show up on the "radar" for most people.
There are some contradictions and fact-related problems in the book. On the one hand Petersen admits (quoting Ilya Prigogene) that no one can predict the future and that unique, novel emergents can arise that "save the day" so to speak. He never considers though that unique, novel emergents may arise that solve some problems while not fundamentally changning the power structures (e.g. a new way to make internal combustion engines so efficient that the oil reserves we have would last 5 times longer than anticipated).
Petersen also speaks glowingly of progress (with some justification) but seems to ignore the problems with things like cloning, cold fusion, and saltwater agriculture.
In the end I'd say this is a book worth reading though because it is concise and in being concise helps the reader make her or his own position an object of awareness. And once you know where you stand on some of these issues, you know what you're willing to try.
There are some contradictions and fact-related problems in the book. On the one hand Petersen admits (quoting Ilya Prigogene) that no one can predict the future and that unique, novel emergents can arise that "save the day" so to speak. He never considers though that unique, novel emergents may arise that solve some problems while not fundamentally changning the power structures (e.g. a new way to make internal combustion engines so efficient that the oil reserves we have would last 5 times longer than anticipated).
Petersen also speaks glowingly of progress (with some justification) but seems to ignore the problems with things like cloning, cold fusion, and saltwater agriculture.
In the end I'd say this is a book worth reading though because it is concise and in being concise helps the reader make her or his own position an object of awareness. And once you know where you stand on some of these issues, you know what you're willing to try.
14 of 15 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
John L. Petersen, the well regarded futurist and head of The Arlington Institute, has written A Vision for 2012, a must read timely essay-length call to action for citizens and governments. In Petersen's view, global warming, fossil fuel depletion, recent economic market disruptions and more, portend massive societal and planetary disruption in the next decade. For some, the year 2012 is a year of foretold doom. 2012 is Petersen's symbolic way of saying "Stop thinking about tomorrow" as the song goes, and start thinking about today. A self-proclaimed optimist, Petersen balances one set of trend lines with another that point to scientific and technological breakthroughs, from new medicines, to the Internet, as holding out the possibility for resolving the challenges we face. But there is no way around the need for government planning and action, and here Petersen is flying on a wing and a prayer. As the book also concedes, governments and society in general usually act conservatively and plan and deal in the less painful policy world of incremental, short term advance until the crisis occurs (think about our failure to address the ticking time bomb of entitlement obligations). We have a lot of political talk about Manhattan projects to develop alternatives to oil or reduce greenhouse emissions (called for in the book) but we know that governments and the citizenry usually act after the fact (e.g. Katrina). Global cooperation is even more difficult and the United States, which the author calls on to lead, has not exactly led over the last decade (think Kyoto) Petersen hopes it can be different if we work together---using technologies like the collaborative Internet---to think, plan, and advocate for change together. Read the book.
14 of 17 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
This book covers many scenarios of decline, examples and data showing us the rate of accelerating change and many arguments for increasing resilience personally, as a community, and nationally. The changes we shall face on our journey to 2012 we should consider moral and solvable. These issues are drastic, human, and not bound to political party. John's book creates a good introduction to this debate - we should have the debate and together develop a brighter future.
Most Recent Customer Reviews
Solid Reasoning, Respectable Author
This book is a persuasive and informed essay on the inevitability of a major event. The author has some serious credentials. It's also a short read (one or two sittings). Read more
Published 15 months ago by Uber Femme
A Compelling Theory of the Future
Futurologist John L. Petersen has digested and distilled trend data from numerous sectors and locales to pen this vision of the future. Read more
Published 23 months ago by Anonymous Reader
Brilliant
Petersen does a truly brilliant job of describing - in understandable terms - the myriad of trends that will be affecting us ... and very soon. Read more
Published on January 31, 2010 by Green Doctor
Promotes Global Government
Combine it with other visionary works like Psyearth Quest, Kachina Revelation and Balance Point for a more balanced perspective.
Published on November 22, 2009 by P. Perry
A Good Overview and Call to Action
Many people are seeing 2012 as a turning point of sorts for social, economic, and environmental change. Read more
Published on October 25, 2009 by James H. Lee
2012 Vision Review
Althouth the writer is well versed, he fails to explain the real possibilities of 2012. He waffles around the subject and tries not to get you very excited. Read more
Published on October 15, 2009 by Robert L. Pratt
Excellent Information
I highly recommend this book to anyone. It is easy to read, very informative, and contains important material that everyone should be aware of to prepare for the changes that are... Read more
Published on September 30, 2009 by Celeste
Annoying
John Petersen's earlier work was vastly more interesting and more structured than this little 4.5 inch by 7 inch 100 page double-spaced blowing in the ears of Gary Hart and Leon... Read more
Published on September 4, 2009 by Robert D. Steele
Very interesting read.
This is a very short condensed book that offers ideas of what could/might possibly happen in 2012. This book will not tell you that XY & Z are going to happen when the day comes,... Read more
Published on June 3, 2009 by CFOUR
Preparing for the Future
From The Devil's Hammer by Victoria Alexander on FromTheBalcony.com.
A Futurist Looks to 2012. I'm obsessed with 2012. Read more
A Futurist Looks to 2012. I'm obsessed with 2012. Read more
Published on March 20, 2009 by Victoria Alexander
Inside This Book
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Key Phrases - Statistically Improbable Phrases (SIPs):
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secular crisis, fourth turning Key Phrases - Capitalized Phrases (CAPs): (learn more)
United States, Predictable Surprises Browse Sample Pages:
Front Cover | Table of Contents | First Pages | Back Cover | Surprise Me!
secular crisis, fourth turning Key Phrases - Capitalized Phrases (CAPs): (learn more)
United States, Predictable Surprises Browse Sample Pages:
Front Cover | Table of Contents | First Pages | Back Cover | Surprise Me!
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