Beginning with a provocative analysis of warfare in the past, futurists Alvin and Heidi Toffler offer intriguing insight into today's military conflicts--and an eye-opening portrait of the battles of the future. By describing the horrifying realities of future war, the authors offer innovative strategies for implementing future peace.
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14 of 16 people found the following review helpful
By Ron Dwyer
Format:Mass Market Paperback
I have a certain measure of skepticism concerning the genre that has been called "futurist" or "future studies" because, as is well known, many of the predictions of futurists have been dead wrong.
But some futurists are better than others; and it is emminetly rational to try to understand where we are headed and plan for it.
The sub-title of this book is : Survival At The Dawn of the 21st Century. Considering that the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 has launched, in a certain sense, the 21st Century, it seems to be an appropriate time to evalute a book by a prominent futurist, written in the early 90s, on war and peace in the 21st Century.
This book is rooted in the Tofflerian concepts of the "First Wave," "Second Wave," and the "Third Wave." The First Wave Civilzation is agrarian. The Second Wave Civilization is industrial; the Third Wave civilization in informational. War and peace should be understood in the context of the Third Wave.
Predictions: Nation-states will no longer have the sole monopoly on force. New, sophisticated techonolgy will be used. The threat of bio-terrorism. Information will be very important, both in war, and in preventing war. The use of psychological methods in war. Countries should, and will, share knowledge and expertise.
Reality: In Afghanistan, the United States attacked Taliban and Al-Qaida bases (Al-Qaida, an international terrorist organization). Satellites and precision bombing were used. There is a fear of a biological counter attack in the United States. There is now an effort to strenghthen our security and intelligence agencies in order to prevent further attack. In the war in Afghanistan, not only bombs were dropped, but also food for the civilians and propaganda pamphelts. In the war on terrorism, the US is assisting the former Soviet Republic of Georgia with weapons and advice.
There are some things that turned out differently. For example, some Second and even First Wave methods of war were used. The calvary, 19th century war institution, used in the 21st Century! Another point is the increasing role of civilians in war. True, civilians have not always been passive. In World War II, a national magazine encouraged its readers to come up with ideas on how to win World War II. But it seems that civilians will have an increasing more important role in the waging of war and the preservation of peace. Heroic civilians in one of the hi-jacked planes fought back and may have well saved Congress or the the White House from being attacked. People increased their security , after the attack, by using the newer communication technologies like cell phones and the Internet.
As to the second half of the book's title "Anti-War", the predictions are not as adequate--though we should not be too hard on Toffler on this point--the prevention of war is not an easy thing. One of Toffler's suggestions is basically of an international organization like the UN having teeth, that is, armed force. But the only way that will happen is if some world government would have a armed force that is greater than the force of all the major powers combined. Basically what best insures peace is the toppling of tyrants.
But some futurists are better than others; and it is emminetly rational to try to understand where we are headed and plan for it.
The sub-title of this book is : Survival At The Dawn of the 21st Century. Considering that the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 has launched, in a certain sense, the 21st Century, it seems to be an appropriate time to evalute a book by a prominent futurist, written in the early 90s, on war and peace in the 21st Century.
This book is rooted in the Tofflerian concepts of the "First Wave," "Second Wave," and the "Third Wave." The First Wave Civilzation is agrarian. The Second Wave Civilization is industrial; the Third Wave civilization in informational. War and peace should be understood in the context of the Third Wave.
Predictions: Nation-states will no longer have the sole monopoly on force. New, sophisticated techonolgy will be used. The threat of bio-terrorism. Information will be very important, both in war, and in preventing war. The use of psychological methods in war. Countries should, and will, share knowledge and expertise.
Reality: In Afghanistan, the United States attacked Taliban and Al-Qaida bases (Al-Qaida, an international terrorist organization). Satellites and precision bombing were used. There is a fear of a biological counter attack in the United States. There is now an effort to strenghthen our security and intelligence agencies in order to prevent further attack. In the war in Afghanistan, not only bombs were dropped, but also food for the civilians and propaganda pamphelts. In the war on terrorism, the US is assisting the former Soviet Republic of Georgia with weapons and advice.
There are some things that turned out differently. For example, some Second and even First Wave methods of war were used. The calvary, 19th century war institution, used in the 21st Century! Another point is the increasing role of civilians in war. True, civilians have not always been passive. In World War II, a national magazine encouraged its readers to come up with ideas on how to win World War II. But it seems that civilians will have an increasing more important role in the waging of war and the preservation of peace. Heroic civilians in one of the hi-jacked planes fought back and may have well saved Congress or the the White House from being attacked. People increased their security , after the attack, by using the newer communication technologies like cell phones and the Internet.
As to the second half of the book's title "Anti-War", the predictions are not as adequate--though we should not be too hard on Toffler on this point--the prevention of war is not an easy thing. One of Toffler's suggestions is basically of an international organization like the UN having teeth, that is, armed force. But the only way that will happen is if some world government would have a armed force that is greater than the force of all the major powers combined. Basically what best insures peace is the toppling of tyrants.
9 of 10 people found the following review helpful
Format:Mass Market Paperback
One does not need to adhere to the theological claims of Judeo-Christianity to concede that wars, and the rumors of wars, will likely persist until the end of time. The at least metaphorical reality of Original Sin is alive and well on planet earth. Alvin and Heidi Toffler have much to offer. They, however, seem uncomfortable discussing the innate tendency of human beings to commit evil acts. An earlier reviewer referred to the subtle quasi Marxism materialism that seems to pervade their writings. I think this criticism of the Tofflers is fair. I strongly believe, for instance, that the wars of the 21st Century will rarely be about hunger and dire poverty. Unfortunately, technological advancements and the increasing affluence of many parts of the world are not solely sufficient in addressing the existential angst of the human condition. The male gender in particular appears to gravitate towards life threatening situations. The themes of purification through violence resonate deep within the breasts of men. There is something to be said concerning the Chinese curse: "May you live in exciting times." I interpret the "End of History" thesis as the contention that we could be entering into a more harmonious and safer era. Will this milieu, though, be found too bland and boring for the male of our species? The reader may find of further interest my Amazon community review of the movie "Fight Club" wherein I delve a bit further into this disquieting topic.
"War and Anti-War" was originally written in 1993. The Tofflers book has endured the test of time. The Tofflers correctly predicted the ability of today's Third Wave satellite technology to monitor questionable activities throughout the world. Privacy issues will be debated about the Big Brother implications of this quickly evolving technology. Nevertheless, the ease and relative low cost of spy satellites might make it virtually impossible for either ideological terrorists or criminals to develop and mange groups of like-minded individuals. The Internet has also evolved to the point where many of us interact with other people throughout the world as just another ho hum, everyday event. It's hard to imagine people who communicate on such a regular basis ever going to war against each other. Religious zealots, racists, and nationalist extremists, on the other hand, feel increasingly marginalized and overwhelmed by our modern age. Any group of males perceiving themselves as psychological, if not spiritually impotent, are always a bona fide threat. Amazon community reviewer, Robert D. Steele, is also cited by the Tofflers for taking to task our intelligence agencies exaggerated desire for secrecy. Steele aptly argues that "the hidden costs of secrecy are so immense they often outweigh the benefits by a large margin." This book is of great value for getting one to think more deeply about how to bring about world peace. The Tofflers don't claim to have all the answers. That is why they encourage the reader to join the dialogue. "War and Anti-War" is a good start for those ready to take a plunge to more profoundly understanding these literal issues of life and death.
7 of 8 people found the following review helpful
Format:Mass Market Paperback
Alvin & Heidi Toffler have always written and spoken as a team, but this is the first book where Heidi has been included. Future Shock and PowerShift remain their two most important works, this one comes in third. They start off with a compelling reason for buying the book, a quote from Trotsky: "You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you." Today, right now, there are 26 conflicts going on around the world killing more than 1000 people a year; 78 "low intensity" conflicts killing more than 100 but less than 1000 people a year; and 178 violent political conflicts causing fewer than 100 deaths per year--source is the PIOOM project in The Netherlands. There are also 16 genocidal campaigns ongoing as we speak, and another 18 emerging--from Rwanda and Burundi to Sri Lanka to East Timor to obscure sections of China and Russia. This is a serious book by serious researchers who had the good fortune to be prescient and to become world-renowned futurists. The book is strongest on Third Wave wars and niche wars, does a very creditable job of covering a wide range of unconventional forms of conflict, and ends, somewhat disappointingly, with a useful but less than gripping discussion of "peace forms". Fun to read, including the chapter on "The Future of the Spy."
Most Recent Customer Reviews
5.0 out of 5 stars
The key to understanding conflict in the post-modern world
Someone recommended I read this book. I was in Sri Lanka at the time, laboring under the usual misconceptions about the civil war that was raging, and wondering why it was so... Read more
Published 4 months ago by dj
4.0 out of 5 stars
A must read if you are interested in future events
¨This book is for all the innocents of tomorrow who will both kill and die for reasons they do not understand¨
¨A fresh century now stretches before us, one in wich vast... Read more
¨A fresh century now stretches before us, one in wich vast... Read more
Published 18 months ago by IG-88
5.0 out of 5 stars
Good book with ideas still useful today
Here are some notes
The same forces transforming our economy and society were about to transform war as well
The biggest problem for democracies in relation to the... Read more
The same forces transforming our economy and society were about to transform war as well
The biggest problem for democracies in relation to the... Read more
Published on August 13, 2007 by anonymous reviewer
4.0 out of 5 stars
Insightful and interesting speculations But our Reality since the book...
This is a very good and interesting book. It has many human interest stories including that of the Tofflers meeting with the late Don Morelli, a veteran of Vietnam who was to... Read more
Published on April 27, 2006 by Shalom Freedman
5.0 out of 5 stars
"To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill"
Over the years I have read several of Toffler's excellent books.He has a marvelous talent to put logical thinking to work and reveal what is really happening right before our... Read more
Published on March 31, 2005 by J. Guild
3.0 out of 5 stars
WORTH GIVING IT A SHOT
This is an interesting book. I cannot I say I agree with the entire premise, but I did find it rather thought provoking and certainly worth considering. Read more
Published on October 7, 2004 by D. Blankenship
2.0 out of 5 stars
Interesting, but not good enough
Reading this book was rather like going into a 400 page Newsweek article. Even though the theory about "waves" can seem appealing, the authors fail to provide a theorical... Read more
Published on June 16, 2003 by Santiago B.
2.0 out of 5 stars
Interesting, but too deterministic!
The Tofflers have a valid point by stating that technology will play a vital role in the winning of wars. Read more
Published on February 22, 2001 by Joseph Yoon
1.0 out of 5 stars
neo-Marxist nonsense
A confused mix of Marxist revisionism and conservative ideology makes for a slog of a read. The content is as non-sensical as the title.
Published on October 28, 2000
4.0 out of 5 stars
The Third Wave
The Toffler's have written a very engaging book about the coming age of war in what they call the 'third wave'- or a post industrial society. Read more
Published on May 16, 2000 by Prauge Traveler
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