The Watchman Fell Asleep: The Surprise Of Yom Kippur And Its Sources (Suny Series in Israeli Studies) [Paperback]

Uri Bar-Joseph (Author)

Book Description

ISBN-10: 0791464822 | ISBN-13: 978-0791464823 | Publication Date: August 18, 2005

Examines how Israel was caught by surprise in the opening stages of the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

--This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher

Based on many formerly undisclosed intelligence and military documents, the secret protocols of discussions on the eve of the war, and interviews with relevant figures, The Watchman Fell Asleep is a compelling account of Israel’s intelligence failure before the 1973 Arab attack known as the Yom Kippur War. The Hebrew version of this book was awarded the Tshetshik Prize for Strategic Studies on Israel’s Security in 2001, and the Israeli Political Science Association’s Best Book Award in 2002. Available here in English for the first time, Uri Bar-Joseph has crafted an authoritative explanation of the most traumatic event in Israel’s stormy history and one of the biggest strategic military surprises of the twentieth century. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

About the Author

Uri Bar-Joseph is Professor of International Relations at Haifa University. He is the author of Intelligence Intervention in the Politics of Democratic States: The United States, Israel, and Britain and The Best of Enemies: Israel and Transjordan in the War of 1948. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

Product Details

• Paperback: 326 pages
• Publisher: State University of New York Press (August 18, 2005)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0791464822
• ISBN-13: 978-0791464823
• Product Dimensions: 8.9 x 6.1 x 0.8 inches
• Shipping Weight: 15.2 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #385,184 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Most Helpful Customer Reviews

8 of 9 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars It should be read by all intelligence analysts ..., October 9, 2005

By 

Maskirovka (Alexandria, VA USA) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Watchman Fell Asleep: The Surprise Of Yom Kippur And Its Sources (Suny Series in Israeli Studies) (Paperback)

particularly those who work what we in the Intelligence Community call "indications and warning."

"The Watchman Fell Asleep" is --in my opinion-- destined to be a "classic" in the literature of intelligence failures, surprise attacks, and denial and deception.

The subject is likely to be obscure to most Americans, the short, sharp war between Israel and Egypt and Syria that took place in 1973 (Israelis call it the "Yom Kippur War" or "War of Atonement" and Arabs use the terms "Ramadan War" or "October War."

Bar-Joseph's book addresses a fundamental question: how did it come to pass that Israel was strategically surprised by the Egyptians and Syrians (leading to Israeli casualties that make others in its other conflicts pale in comparison)?

Bar-Joseph makes a convincing case that this was the result of Israeli errors far more than Arab cleverness. He describes the mindset of complacency that seized hold of Israel after its easy victory in the Six Day War. This "konzeptsiya" held that the Egyptians and Syrians would not go to war for years to come in the wake of that stinging defeat. It was a logical, coherent, well-thought out mindset ...but it was wrong.

I've read some about the war, but Bar-Joseph's book is full of new revelations:

-the identity of the high-level source who gave the Mossad a definitive warning of Sadat's intent to attack in October 1973

-the fact that although Israel had obtained the Arabs' tactical battle plans on both the Egyptian and Syrian fronts, the Israeli commanders either did not exploit or were unaware of this hard won knowledge (which reinforces a central belief of mine: the best intel in the world is useless if people aren't allowed to see it and make use of it)

Perhaps even more important than revelations such as these is Bar-Joseph's discussion of various cognitive and analytic errors that the Israelis fell victim to. The one that I found most interesting was the proposition that the head of Israeli military intelligence and his favorite analyst both were personalities that favored "closure" to a dangerous degree (in other words: they did not like being uncertain and once they had made their minds up, they resisted changing them until almost the very end).

To sum up, this is a wonderful addition to the literature of intelligence books out there. Given the fact that it happened just three decades ago, it is probably more pertinent and accessible to today's readers than earlier books about Pearl Harbor.

So I congratulate the author and encourage my colleagues in the IC to read this as well as anyone else with an interest in why intelligence failures like the 1973 War happen.

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars A fascinating book for anyone who is interested in modern military and intelligence history., May 10, 2009

By 

Robert Jordan "Robert Jordan" (New York, NY USA) - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Watchman Fell Asleep: The Surprise Of Yom Kippur And Its Sources (Suny Series in Israeli Studies) (Paperback)

This is a fascinating book for anyone who is interested in modern military and intelligence history and a "must" read for any professional intelligence analyst.

The coordinated assault launched by Egypt and Syria on Israel in October 1973 is known as one of the three biggest strategic blunders of the 20th century, next to the Japanese surprise attack on Pearl Harbor and the German invasion of the USSR. In all three cases decision makers and intelligence officers of the attacked countries were shocked and caught unprepared. In his extraordinary account, based on archival sources and interviews, the author explains what went wrong and why in the Israeli case.

The significance of Bar-Joseph's work on Yom Kippur is probably equal to the impact of Roberta Wohlstetter's work on Pearl Harbor. In a nutshell, Bar-Joseph convincingly shows how excellent intelligence indications were overshadowed by poor analysts' comprehension.

I would say the book's strongest point is the author's ability to present an academic argument in the style of a detective story. As the narrative develops, the tension of the plot incrementally increases and eventually culminates in a nuanced explanation of the analytical failure. The author utilizes several academic disciplines, cognitive psychology and organizational theories included, and his multidisciplinary argument flows logically and reads easily.

There are many revelations in the book. I was particularly mesmerized by the story of the best ever Mossad agent, who turned out to be the son-in-law of the Egyptian president, and also by the account of how the Israel's MI chief abused most exotic means of collection, whose nature remains secret until today. Astonishing also is Bar-Joseph's explanation how and why the Israelis disregarded the detailed and precise warnings of their most valuable spy.

It is amazing how applicable the lessons outlined by the author are nowadays. Particularly astonishing is the relevance of his argument for our thinking about the intelligence failure of 9/11 and the over-estimate about Iraqi WMD in 2002.

In short, Bar-Joseph provides a deep and multifaceted, yet an easy to read, explanation for the complicated historical event and does so in such a manner that I could not put the book aside once I started. Probably one of the best books I have read about military and intelligence history. It is, indeed, highly recommended.