Customer Reviews

What Are The Odds?: Chance In Everyday Life

5 star:		(3)
4 star:		(1)
3 star:		(3)
2 star:		(0)
1 star:		(1)

 

 

Orkin writes clearly for the novice and uses a minimal amount of mathematics. He provides clear explanations of games of chance including roulette and blackjack. The coverage on blackjack is particularly detailed and some of the anecdotes are very amusing. It is a little disappointing however since it promises examples from everyday life in the title but concentrates mainly on gambling and coincidence and does not offer much in the way of real problems. Some of the examples are overly simplistic. Still the discussion of gambling is interesting and there are many good references.

This is a quirky book, but with lots of good information. The tone is often humorous, but ends with a serious topic. About half the book is spent looking at the house edge on roulette, craps, and slot machines. He presented a "winning strategy (almost)" for blackjack, however he does not include the calculation for the house edge there.

I thought the section on chance and chaos were excellent and I'd recommend to readers setting up the logistic difference equation of animal populations on a spreadsheet, to really demonstrate the effect of initial conditions. Contrary however to this strong section on biology, was a weak paragraph on evolution.

The later discussion on game theory was well done, looking at the Minimax criteria and the pay-off models. This chapter might have been enhanced by other strategies of decision, such as "avoiding regret". The final application of game theory to the Yugoslavian conflict was daring, and showed a different perspective about complex conflicts. Perhaps participants in Survivor, or other reality shows would benefit from this book.

Despite the subtitle, the great majority of the examples in the book center on lotteries, coin tossing, casino games, and the Prisoners' Dilemma. I thought that's what his last book was supposed to be about. Almost nothing here about other relevant topics like investing or epidemiology. The exception is a largely off-topic final chapter that comprises an editorial against the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. Not a total waste of time, but for a comprehensive probability and statistics primer, look elsewhere.

What are the Odds? opened my eyes to the world of chance. Not only did the author provide numerous interesting examples, he also showed the prevalence of chance in our daily lives. The chapters on gambling games provided a reality check and will help me on my next visit to Las Vegas. The chapter on Prisoner's Dilemma provided ways to be cooperative that protect against exploitation. Especially noteworthy is the author's ability to describe mathematical topics in an understandable way.

Though subtitled, "Chance in Everyday Life," Orkin primarily uses gambling and war to discuss probability. The book starts off with a few chapters of basic probability, and Orkin uses several short passages to illustrate some of the common misconceptions many of us share about the role of chance.

The meat of the book, however, is concerned with gambling and war. Orkin gives entertaining explanations for the various odds associated with roulette, craps, slots, and blackjack. His reasoning is easy to understand and will hopefully disabuse gamblers of the notion of lucky streaks. Orkin then goes on to discuss spend a couple of chapters on zero-sum game theory and the prisoner's dilemma. He effectively uses examples involving two warring generals who must decide to attack, defend, cooperate, etc. when presented with various options and the payouts associated with them.

This book would have gotten 4 stars had it not been for the unnecessary last chapter where the author discusses zero-sum game theory with respect to the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. Unfortunately, the chapter comes off less like a lesson in game theory, than an opportunity for Orkin to present his political views. Politics just doesn't belong this book.

This is a decent book and a short read. If anything, pick it up for the short discussions on gambling.

This is not a probability and statistics text. It is a general introduction to the ideas of chance, probability and some general ideas of game theory. There is some attention to games of chance (roulette, craps, slot machines, video poker and blackjack), but this is not the book if you are looking for detailed instruction on how the best play these games. There is some general guidance, but there are many other books which provide much more detailed information. Likewise, while the idea of game theory is discussed, it is in the most general terms and not with the detail found in a book on game theory.

I would recommend this book for someone who is looking for a very general introduction to the subjects listed above. It is a quick and entertaining read, but I would not recommend it to someone who wants a more detailed treatment of chance, probability and game theory.

Did you know that if you drive 10 miles to buy a Powerball ticket, you are 16 times more likely to die in a car crash than you are to win the jackpot? Or better yet, that if you buy
50 Powerball tickets a week, you will win --- once every 30,000 years? And how about this one: The chances of tossing a coin in the air and having it land heads up 100 times in a row are one in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. (Thats 30 zeros, folks.) The odds of having a great time while reading this book: 100 percent. Guaranteed. Author Michael Orkin takes a different spin on life with this lively read, a compendium of chance
in everyday life. Ultimately, its a book about mathematical possibility --- and it adds up to great fun!

This very thin book apparently contains the distilled wisdom of a statistics professor, whose only claim to fame is that he is called from time to time to help TV newscasters get some comment from an "expert."

Did you notice that all the "favourable" reviews sound as if they were written by an underpaid marketing intern? that's because no one really enjoyed this book, but the reviews have to be there to sell the book.