What the Future Holds: Insights from Social Science [Paperback]

Richard N. Cooper (Editor), Richard Layard (Editor)

Book Description

Publication Date: February 28, 2003

Predicting the future is notoriously difficult. But systematic analysis leads to clearer understanding and wiser decisions. Thinking about the future also makes social scientists focus their research into the past and present more fruitfully, with more attention to key predictors of change.This book considers how we might think intelligently about the future. Taking different methodological approaches, well-known specialists forecast likely future developments and trends in human life. The questions they address include: How many humans will there be? Will there be enough energy? How will climate change affect our lives? What patterns of work will exist? How will government work at the local, national, and world level? Will inflation remain under control? Why have past forecasts been so bad? The book concludes with a discussion of the intellectual and historical context of futurology and a look at the accuracy of predictions that were made for the year 2000.

Editorial Reviews

From Library Journal

The discovery and explanation of phenomena and behavior are the crucial elements of science. The key to the success of any science rests with its ability to predict future behavior and events accurately. Editors Cooper (Harvard; Economic Stabilization and Debt in Developing Countries) and Layard (London Sch. of Economics; East-West Migration) here provide a collection of well-written chapters on a variety of subjects, with the purpose of encouraging more academic research and more public debate on the topic of futurology the study of foretelling the future. Predicting the future is difficult in any science, but the social sciences in particular face a more extreme challenge owing to the large number of variables that seemingly can never be completely "controlled." Many wonderfully complicated theories are presented here that will surely stimulate readers who possess a thirst for analytical and deductive theoretical challenges. Highly recommended for all academic and large public libraries. Tim Delaney, Canisius Coll., Buffalo
Copyright 2002 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Review

"Can the information revolution really knit the globe together? Or will developing countries be left behind in an ever-widening digital divide? If these vital questions interest you, Ernest Wilson's book is critical reading."--Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Dean, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

"Everyone is talking about our increased vulnerability to information warfare. Gregory J. Rattray puts this danger in an analytic and historical context that tells us what we can and should do about it."--Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Dean, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

"There are valuable lessons here." Graham May New Scientist

"...[This book] serves a useful purpose by stimulating human responses to avoid possible disasters." Foreign Affairs

"This book demands close reading. The editors have selected important, insightful essays."--Thomas C. Schelling, Distinguished University Professor, University of Maryland

"Predicting the future is impossible. Surprise is inevitable, yet we cannot plan our lives without predictions. This book provides an essential understanding of both the limits and the disciplines that we need to face the future more effectively."--Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Dean, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

"...[This book]serves a useful purpose by stimulating human responses to avoid possible disasters." Foreign Affairs

"How do we look in the eyes of others? After 9/11, the question is more crucial than ever, and What Does the World Want from America has assembled an interesting set of answers."--Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Dean, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

"America needs both our hard military power and our soft power-the power to attract rather than coerce. This book is a very good place to start exploring the realities of both."--Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Dean, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Paperback: 289 pages
• Publisher: The MIT Press (February 28, 2003)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0262532042
• ISBN-13: 978-0262532044
• Product Dimensions: 9.1 x 6 x 0.7 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #965,736 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

5 of 7 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Insightful!, March 22, 2002

By 

Rolf Dobelli "getAbstract" (Switzerland) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: What the Future Holds: Insights from Social Science (Hardcover)

You might expect that a book edited by professors of economics at Harvard and the London School of Economics would come in on the dry side. Nothing could be further from the truth with regard to What the Future Holds, a compelling compilation of possible future scenarios written by experts in population, climate, energy, labor, government, monetary policy and information. The enlightening details about scenario planning are an added bonus that we from getAbstract believe will be especially relevant to any business or government decision makers.

2 of 3 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Interesting but erratic, May 28, 2003

By 

Gaetan Lion - See all my reviews
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This review is from: What the Future Holds: Insights from Social Science (Hardcover)

Within this book, you have some excellent and also really poor material.

For instance, one chapter about estimating population growth is very good. It is objective. It details the assumptions, and explain why forecasting population growth is associated with a high level of uncertainty.

Another chapter on the future of energy consumption is really bad. It is a not so disguised subjective infomercial about alternative energy. Although promoting the use of alternative energy is really laudable, it should not be confused with objective and integer forecasting simulation. This one chapter should have never made it within this book in its existing form.