Customer Reviews

When Giants Fall: An Economic Roadmap for the End of the American Era

5 star:		(8)
4 star:		(5)
3 star:		(3)
2 star:		(3)
1 star:		(7)

 

 

The gist of this book is that the US is suffering from declining respect and financial and military strength, and that the world is beginning to suffer from overdue Malthusian shortages of critical resources. Because the US is in decline, the consequence will be international chaos as various actors (state and non-state, such as terrorists and international corporations) step into the void and inevitably begin to collide with the US and one another. The result of this will be global shortages of food, water and energy, increased protectionism, military conflagration, increased income disparity, and any other number of woes.

To support the inevitability of this dire future, Panzer cites Malthus, Paul Kennedy's book "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers," various fairly current news accounts, and less frequently, historic events. However, his rather strident argument of inevitable decline and collapse appears conclusory at best, and a critic might argue that the book itself represents a cynical attempt to capitalize upon the prevalent dour sentiments concerning the economy and America's position in the world.

Moreover, at times the tone of the book risks falling into condescending tongue clucking of the elite who, of course, saw this coming and are shocked, shocked, that we could ever allow this to happen. Take this quote from page 9, drawing parallels between the US and Rome as it was collapsing: "Instead of bread lines and circuses, we have NASCAR, video games and reality TV." 45 years ago, many Americans may have told you how the US was collapsing because of its softness in the face of communism, the Beatles, etc.

On the plus side, Panzner is well read, and he recounts a string of recent and several more remote historical events in great detail. My issue is not that he cites Malthus and Kennedy - it's that he comes up with quite specific predictions based upon a smattering of self-selected news and historical accounts. While the dire future he predicts may come into being, I'm not sure I agree that it WILL come to pass.

A second issue I take with this book is that it promises "cutting edge strategies and much needed direction that will allow you to achieve financial security and stability in an increasingly uncertain and dangerous world." I guess I missed this section other than some advice to invest in commodity producers. Moreover, given that the book essentially predicts a real-live "Road Warrior" world, I am skeptical whether any book could provide such "cutting edge" strategies, unless you consider building a bomb shelter and preparing for a survivalist future to be worthwhile.

On the plus side, the book is a fairly easy read, and the author has clearly spent much time combing the news media for information that appears to support his conclusions. Anyone wishing for a refresher about various international mishaps, primarily of the US, will find this book enjoyable.

Personally, I prefer Paul Kennedy's book "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers," which is truly a landmark book about the dangers of imperial over-reach. Another interesting, although not necessarily persuasive, read is Dent's "The Great Depression Ahead," which is distinguishable from "When Giants Fall" by its narrow focus upon demographics and provision of a bit more tangible financial planning advice.

In summary, I can't say that Panzner is wrong - his projections for the future might well be right. That being said, his book purports to predict the future with a certainty that does not appear supported by the data provided (keep in mind that the actual text of this book is slightly less than 190 pages, exclusive of the extensive bibliography). It is possible that Panzner sought to keep the book "readable," and hence cut down on the detail, but in this regard, I would have preferred to have more information supporting Panzner's conclusions, and some more hints about how to survive the collapse we are supposedly about to face.

In Financial Armageddon, Panzner detailed a frightening but, as it turns out, prescient vision of a nation in the throes of an economic cancer. In his latest book, he expands on that earlier theme and writes about, among other things, how the world will change as the disease progresses through the terminal phase. The book covers a lot of ground, including oil, water, and food-related concerns, the future of NAFTA and the European Union, the potential for social unrest and world war, and what to own in world gone mad (hint: its the shiny stuff). It's probably not the sort of book that you crack open on a rainy Sunday afternoon, but once you get started, it's a powerful eye-opener that's hard to put down.

This follow up to Panzer's earlier book Financial Armageddon is exhaustively researched, well written and very sobering. When Giants Fall can really be described as one book in three parts. In the first, Panzer lays the historical basis for the unraveling of the American empire - the missteps that led our nation down the same past as many previous world powers.

The second phase of the book is a very well thought out hypothesis of what America and the world, will be facing next. The reader will dismiss Panzer's forecast of coming events at their own peril. Those who have read Financial Armageddon will know already that Panzer is among the very few (including Peter Schiff) who had predicted our current events well before they had come to pass.

The final part of the book is the bibliography. Granted, few people ever spend much time reading any bibliography, especially one that is over fifty pages long. I point this out only to emphasize the exhaustive research Panzer performed in writing this. While no one can predict the future, it is possible to make logical assumptions as to what the future may hold based on past events and current data. If past is prologue, we are in for quite a bumpy ride

Panzner begins by summarizing the evidence and events that have harmed American prosperity and leadership. These include our $65.9 trillion in unfunded pension and health care liabilities, allowing our infrastructure to deteriorate (estimated $2.5 trillion required), the trillions of dollars held by China, Japan, and mid-East nations, our current financial crisis, loss of much of our vaunted manufacturing base, vulnerability to foreign energy sources, loss of respect in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the mid-East, military overstretch (estimated $1.1 trillion in expenditures/year - with locations in 130 nations, and consuming 8% of our GDP), a need to borrow an additional $2 billion/day, a net deficit of assets held by foreigners - totaling 20% of our GDP, and continual poor ranking on international comparisons of pupil achievement - 29th in science, 35th in math, in 2006.

Another problem is that our very expensive military has become vulnerable to asymmetric warfare - eg. much cheaper Chinese submarines and missiles, and cyber-warfare.

Panzner could also have added that our health care, education, and military expenditures are at least double (as a percentage of GDP) those of other modern nations - totaling a significant waste of resources.

The REAL problem is that we now face a world with growing alliances involving nations that aren't interested in American hegemony (eg. China, Russia, Venezuela, Iran), increasing demand for shrinking resources - especially energy.

I read "Financial Armageddon" shortly after it was published. It was as good as a Stephen King thriller, perhaps better because it was reality-based. I decided to rebalance my portfolio. My goal was to preserve my money and pay less attention to return on investment. I am so glad I did, and have minimized losses. "Giants" paints an even darker picture than "Armageddon." My friends and family are now planning for the worst (but still hope for the best). My older friends who dismissed "Armageddon" were financially devastated and have little chance of recovery. Those who read and learn from Panzer's books will have a much better chance to survive and prosper.

Panzner's earlier book, Financial Armageddon, laid out the four horsemen of the apocalypse riding towards the global economy. Booed off in some quarters at the time for its "doomsday" or "mad max" predictions of debt bubbles bursting, banks failing, the FDIC getting in over their head, rising unemployment etc etc it's all proven sadly accurate. This book builds on these foundations and looks to a future involving America's decline as a political, cultural and militaristic superpower. Not everyone's cup of tea, but it shouldn't be anti-American to discuss threats to the current way of life. How else are we to arrive at solutions?

The book draws on a massive number of sources which are helpfully detailed in the extended bibliography. Anyone looking for more information on any aspect of the end of hegemony would do well to start here.

The last part of book, addressing ways the reader can prepare themselves for a changed world order, is necessarily general. People expecting to be told they can make money simply by buying one stock and selling another 1) have misunderstood the first part of the book and 2) will be better served by a comedian like Cramer, than an educator like Panzner.

It's well researched, extremely well sourced and although its conclusions sometimes seem to go beyond what I would deem likely, that was case with the Financial Armageddon too.
In the words of GWB (something of minor star in the book), "fool me once, shame on -- shame on you. Fool me -- you can't get fooled again."

Michael Panzer is brilliant. His previous book , Financial Armageddon, was a prelude to this book. Michael Panzer lays out, with perfect analyis, the reality facing America. Hiding our heads in the sand is not
going to do any good. Our mainstream media and our national government needs a wake up call. Michael gives everyone who reads this book a chance to get ahead of the reality that faces our nation today. Michael is not my relative nor have I ever met him so plese know that this one is from the heart for a nation that is struggling. Listen well to Mr. Panzer's sincere book.

Although others have talked about the end of the American empire, they don't say what it actually means for the average person. Not just economically, but in a broader sense. In this book, the author does a good job of connecting many different dots and explaining what it means. Not just in terms of investing, but for businesses and individuals, too. Although the author sees plenty to worry about, he doesn't just focus on the negatives. He discusses future lifestyle choices and the issue of personal security. He also goes through the steps that businesses will have to take in order to survive. In the chapter on what to do with your money, he makes some convincing arguments against traditional investments like stocks and bonds. Overall, it is an important book that is definitely worth reading.

Started out really interesting and relevant. Then sort of got redundant and kind of fizzled. I saw predictions, but no roadmap.

I try to resist doom-and-gloom literature. Some of it finds its way to my door anyway. When Giants Fall covers many of the issues that I have covered at my blog with an even more dour slant. It contemplates the demise of American hegemony in the world.

Though I'm not crazy about the US Dollar, and the US in this economic environment, I'm not sure what can replace the US and its flexbile economy, which allows the rest of the world to shed its excesses here in exchange for buying our debts. Yes, it is not sustainable. But something not being sustainable does not tell us when it will end. Nations like China following non-economic goals typically have to go through an experience where they eat so much of something bad for them and then they throw up.

Um, that's not scientific-sounding, but I think it is a fair way to describe how a large unstable equilibrium gets destroyed. The non-economic provider of liquidity (China) to the parasite in question (the US) must choke.

Who Would Benefit from this Book

Hmm... back to the book. If you get easily dismayed, this is not the book for you. Michael Panzner paints an "end of the era" picture for America, with the nation as a whole less well off.

For those that are willing to look at the pessimistic side of what is possible, When Giants Fall is a reasonable account of what could happen. Warning: the book is long on description, and short on solutions, both personal and national.