Customer Reviews

When Prophecy Fails

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When Prophecy Fails is as relevant today as it was decades ago when a little doomsday cult predicted a flood that never came. I'm a professor in a social scientific-minded communication department. It seems that no matter what class I teach, I'm always using this book as an example. From a theoretical and research perspective, it's a great field study designed to test Festinger's ideas about cognitive dissonance. It also stands as a rigorous and meticulous example of the method of data collection via participant-observation. Readers will also appreciate the beginning material chronicling known failed predictions throughout history.

And the writing style is lucidly accessible and the detailed characterizations of the people involved and action unfolding are compelling enough for even the casual reader. I've always been a fan of Leon Festinger's work, but no matter one's personal givings about dissonance theory, it is tough not to appreciate the laborious efforts of this tireless and dedicated research team in producing this study. I admire those who are able to foresee real-world applications of their ideas in advance so as to be able to properly test them as the real-world events unfold. Festinger et al. were brilliant in this regard. A must-read for anyone interested in solid research methodologies and applied learning.

In the half-century since this breakthrough book appeared, the phenomena it so carefully describes continue unabated -- witness the "Left Behind" books and the 2012 brouhaha. In short, it documents how the factual failure of prophecy can counter-intuitively increase rather than weaken faith. When personal investment reaches a certain point of commitment, many people find it psychologically impossible to let go of apocalyptic belief, even with clear disproof. There must have been a mistake in the calculations. Or a god was "testing our faith." Or any of a number of rationalizations. In fact, we still have in our midst the remnants of the Millerite prophecy flop from the early 19th century. I recommend this book as a present to friends and family who are credulously receptive to prophesy talk -- if you can get them to read it.

I don't have a background in social psychology, therefore I cannot evaluate this book on its technical merits. However, I had a really good time reading it. As far as its theory is concerned, it is presented in a very clear manner and makes sense.

This classic will be referenced repeatedly next week, after the Rapture fails to occur on 5/21, and will leap back onto the Amazon best seller list for the month of June.

The first chapter of When Prophecy Fails explains the theory of cognitive dissonance and applies it to examples in ancient history. The remainder of this book is a detailed report of a delusional flying saucer cult in the 1950s that made several specific prophecies that were disconfirmed. The authors predict (based upon cognitive dissonance theory) that the convinced, committed members will resort to increased proselyting in response to disconfirmation of their beliefs. The authors conclude that cognitive dissonance theory is confirmed, but I note that increased proselyting occurred in response to one of the disconfirmations, but not in response to other disconfirmations. The book is well-written and moderately interesting.

I heard about this book a long time ago from social psychology podcasts, but never got around to reading it until now. Leaving aside the writers' discussion of cognitive dissonance theory, what really was great about this book was their factual and only slightly derisive reporting of the strange and sad members of this cult. This book delivers a fly-on-the-wall view of petty power struggles based on whether the "being" one person is channeling is higher up on the cosmic hierarchy than someone else's, pathetic efforts to draw everything back to their Judeo-Christian roots - every member is actually someone mentioned in the Bible, and the desperate grasping at straws when predictions don't pan out; you don't have to be a sadist to be entertained!

I read the book after Harold Camping's rapture prediction failed and wondered how those who believed in him would react, and what their families could do to help them again be worthwhile citizens of the world. Well now I know: keep them away from other rapture believers and give them a few months to get their brains working again.

...this book will be used to discuss the global warming cultists. Not that you can't apply it today but in a few more years it will be all the more obvious how the Warmists compare.