Customer Reviews

Why Flip a Coin: The Art and Science of Good Decisions

5 star:		(6)
4 star:		(12)
3 star:		(2)
2 star:		(0)
1 star:		(0)

 

 

This book does what every other math book on the planet fails to do; explain why you need to know math, logic and reason. The situations and logic in this book are easily translatable into every day situations. Each chapter is broken down into short, easy to read, segments that use simple stories to convey otherwise complex concepts.

This is a book about the process of making decisions. It covers quite a broad range of topics from individual decision making to group decisions. Both qualitative and quantitative perspectives are considered. Good decisions do not necessarily result in good outcomes. Instead the decision maker is responsible for making the best decision possible with the information on hand at the time. This usually results from an assessment of the projected consequences and the probability of various outcomes.

I like the book because it is easy to read and the author laces the text with some very humorous cynicism. The book covers a diverse number of topics from dating, to gambling, to investing to war. Unfortunately the book is most definitely targeted at the American market. The book includes discussion on American law, the Constitution and American sports. Occasionally I found my eyes glazing over because I couldn't find any broad relevance in the material. This only occurred a small percentage of the time much of the book is very generalisable to anyone faced with making a decision.

Overall the book was a highly enjoyable read. Thoroughly recommended if you would like to improve your decision making or would just like a good intellectual exploration of the process of making sound decisions.

The inevitability of decision making means it pays to understand how decisions are made, ergo decision science. Using examples gleaned from everyday life, physicist H.W. Lewis explains what decision science has discovered about the rules that govern good, and not-so-good, decision-making.

This book is not intended for actuaries and those already expert in statistical decision theory. It is intended to help the rest of us improve our understanding of decision science, to become more inquisitive about how decisions are made, both by us and for us, and to function a little more effectively, both as individuals and as members of society.

The author is Professor Emeritus in Physics at the University of California, Santa Barbara. In 1991, he received a Science Writing Award from the American Institute of Physics. He is a member of the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety.

Reviewed by Azlan Adnan. Formerly Business Development Manager with KPMG, Azlan is currently managing partner of Azlan & Koh Knowledge and Professional Management Group, an education and management consulting practice based in Kota Kinabalu. He holds a Master's degree in International Business and Management.

i teach a course called "Risk" and I have never studied the subject. But I have lived with risks and probabilities. Whether you are a physicist or a mathematician, if you realize that your life sometimes hinges on other people's perception of risk, probabilities or chance, you can observe related behavior and try to examine the inconsistencies and the improbabilities in human thought and actions. I have used this book in my classes, even when I taught Insurance, and I have received e-mail messages of thanks from former students.

It is not what H.W. Smith writes, but what he leads you to think that is so important. It is even enough that other reviewers have admitted that reading the book got them thinking. It sure helps me in understanding myself and others as well as my students.

Although not very scientifically, I formulate hypotheses on 'how many in my class of sixty will prefer a fifty/fifty perspective to what should obviously be different odds, when it comes to personal finance, emotional relationships and even career choices. And the results are incredible. I do not accuse family members of being illogical anymore.

This book is for everyone who wants more hints on understanding human thought and behavior. It allows a further parting of the curtain, in an easy and fun framework.

This is the book that started it all for me, and I cannot thank Mr. H. W. Lewis enough. (I did not say Professor, because his personality and humanity is more important for me than his title, just on the basis of this one book.)

I have only one additional advice to the reader, "If you must flip a coin, please do not regret the outcome of your resulting action. Call it Kismet and continue with your jolly life."

This is a great introduction to decision-making. The most interesting aspect of this book is how it freely discusses probability while avoiding descriptions that are too technical for the average reader. The result is that the reader gets the gist of the argument without having to struggle too much. "Why Flip a Coin?" is so thought-provoking that you will likely want to reread it as soon as you finish reading it.

For those with an interest in probability and an awareness of its impact on the outcome of most events, this book will prove to be stimulating. Lewis examines real world examples of decision making models and invokes probability to illustrate how proper consideration toward common decisions can offer improved results.

Since our lives are filled with countless decisions every day, knowing how to select alternatives using the influence of probability will assure better results in many areas, and Lewis explains why and how. There is a lot more than just accounting for both sides of a decision and weighing the chances, and then choosing the best option. Many times we do not know all the facts, other times there are more than just simple variables. We may encounter a decision that encompasses more than two choices or one where we weigh the positives and negatives on difference scales. Lewis covers all these issues with outstanding examples and uncomplicated explanations that leave little need for complex mathematical skills to grasp the subject matter.

I have no doubt this book will be an eye opening experience that will leave any reader with the ability to make better choices in many aspects of life. The book is enjoyable to read and thought provoking, and thus one I would recommend to all readers.

I thought this was an interesting book to read. Unique topic and discussion. Made me think.

The book is a good purchase. The writing is a bit above regular reading but very interesting. It is a good choice if you want to read a chapter and set it down. I enjoyed his games and examples

Excellent non-mathematical book about probability and decision making. Combine it with a bit of logical thinking and you'll never make another bad decision. Well, that might be stretching it. Still, though, Lewis has written a very readable book about good thinking and making decisions. He works through several different kinds of questions and explains why one decision is better than another. The book primary deals with decisions with a mathematical component - gaming, voting, statistics - and not with ethical or moral kinds of questions but the good thinking skills learned can be used in any context.

I have no interest in mathematics, economics or probability theory and yet I loved this book. The book is just downright interesting. It brought me along slowly enough so that I could understand the concepts, but was challenging enough so that I actually had to think.

For people who enjoy some variety in their reading and want to try something different, I highly recommend this book.