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Win By Not Losing: A Disciplined Approach to Building and Protecting Your Wealth in the Stock Market by Managing Your Risk Hardcover – October 15, 2013

4.5 out of 5 stars 33 customer reviews

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Editorial Reviews

About the Author

NICK ATKESON and ANDREW HOUGHTON are founding partners of Delta Investment Management, a registered investment advisory firm based in San Francisco. Delta Investment Management is a provider of premier tactical investment strategies to individuals and institutions. Atkeson and Houghton are also editors and advisors for several financial newsletter publications.

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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 272 pages
  • Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education; 1 edition (October 15, 2013)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0071812903
  • ISBN-13: 978-0071812900
  • Product Dimensions: 1.2 x 6.2 x 9 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (33 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #864,352 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Top Customer Reviews

Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase
The value of this 240-page book is really determined by how much you know about technical analysis.
If you are well-versed in technical analysis, save your money and your time. You will learn nothing from this book that you don't already know. In fact, the authors suggest that you make your equity "buy" and "sell" decisions using four simple suggestions (which are covered in a few pages near the end of the book):
- When the S&P 500 is above its 75-day simple moving average crossover, buy.
- When it is below its 75-day simple moving average crossover, sell.
- If you get a buy signal, limit your equity purchases to those with high relative strength.
- If you get a sell signal, liquidate your equities and sit in cash or treasuries.
Again, those with technical analysis expertise will quickly realize that this is extremely rudimentary information, barely scratching the surface of technical analysis.
However, for those of you who didn't understand any of what I just wrote, this book might have real value. The authors compare and contrast two opposing philosophies of investing: the "buy and hold" approach (which street-corner financial planners and advisors love, because it makes their jobs so easy) and the "time the market" approach (which is extremely difficult and complex and, if you don't know what you are doing, can lead you to lose your shirt just as easily and quickly as you can if the market tanks on your "buy and hold" portfolio).
Still, for readers who know nothing about technical analysis and market timing, this book can provide some real food for thought and a decent introduction to a different way about looking at your investments. It can be the first step toward learning about how to utilize these strategies.
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Format: Hardcover
Just follow my methods and you will make money. Yes, it is another one of *those* books. Most of them are not worth your money. This one might be worth it, but let me give you my misgivings.

The book warms up slowly, because it spends most of its early time destroying other ideas, without introducing their main ideas. For example, it spends time destroying:

* Gains in the market come slowly and steadily. Correct, that's wrong. As my readers should know, market returns are lumpy. [Note to readers at Amazon, there are links at my blog that explain these concepts in greater detail.]
* Modern Portfolio Theory. Again, no argument here, it is not a good explanation as to how the market works.
* Volatility isn't risk; risk is the potential to lose. Again right.
* Diversification among risky assets does not provide much risk reduction. Again right.
* Most mutual funds miss out on the ability to limit risk, because they forbid market timing. Here I differ. Aside from funds that aim to time the markets, the asset allocation decision is not in the hands of the managers, but the shareholders, who must them selves decide how much stocks to hold.

This leads to their main hypothesis, that people have been duped into buy & hold investing, when they could make a lot more money if they only invested when conditions are favorable.

There are two problems with this: 1) how can you tell when times are favorable or not? I use the credit cycle, and estimates of what various asset classes are likely to return if they were private businesses, but not everyone can follow that. They give their simplified version, which is a moving average crossover method. Buy when stocks are above the moving average. Sell when they are below. Simple, huh?
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Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
No one can time the market, we've always been told. Maybe not precisely at tops and bottoms, but several signals give us a fairly reliable indication to help us miss the worst of market drops and participate in the uptrends. This book describes one. That and a question for you...." Do you really believe that those who insist that buy and hold is the only way are doing so with your interests in mind"? The real question is whether or not you have the nerve and discipline to follow both the sell and buy signals.

In a quick and entertaining read, the authors present a simple and reliable method to time the market by yourself or using their advisory service. The sales pitch is understandable and not over the top. I do it myself.

Personally, I have added this to my list of several market timing signals.
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Format: Kindle Edition
I am a long time investor and have experienced all of the market tanks cited by the authors. Unfortunately, because my investments were managed by "professionals" their buy and hold inaction caused large and sometimes complete losses to be realized. In addition, the lack of liquidity of some investments prevented exiting them when opportune to do so. The wrong investments held at the wrong time can be devastating and can usually only be recognized in hind sight.

I am now a convert to the described highly liquid "long or not" tactical discipline of Win By Not Losing and have adopted the principles of this excellent book.

I now worry less about my investments but instead worry that too many will migrate to these tactics and dilute their effectiveness.

It really feels good to enjoy the bull ride and then be all cash as the market sinks.
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