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Win By Not Losing: A Disciplined Approach to Building and Protecting Your Wealth in the Stock Market by Managing Your Risk Hardcover – October 15, 2013
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About the Author
NICK ATKESON and ANDREW HOUGHTON are founding partners of Delta Investment Management, a registered investment advisory firm based in San Francisco. Delta Investment Management is a provider of premier tactical investment strategies to individuals and institutions. Atkeson and Houghton are also editors and advisors for several financial newsletter publications.
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Top Customer Reviews
If you are well-versed in technical analysis, save your money and your time. You will learn nothing from this book that you don't already know. In fact, the authors suggest that you make your equity "buy" and "sell" decisions using four simple suggestions (which are covered in a few pages near the end of the book):
- When the S&P 500 is above its 75-day simple moving average crossover, buy.
- When it is below its 75-day simple moving average crossover, sell.
- If you get a buy signal, limit your equity purchases to those with high relative strength.
- If you get a sell signal, liquidate your equities and sit in cash or treasuries.
Again, those with technical analysis expertise will quickly realize that this is extremely rudimentary information, barely scratching the surface of technical analysis.
However, for those of you who didn't understand any of what I just wrote, this book might have real value. The authors compare and contrast two opposing philosophies of investing: the "buy and hold" approach (which street-corner financial planners and advisors love, because it makes their jobs so easy) and the "time the market" approach (which is extremely difficult and complex and, if you don't know what you are doing, can lead you to lose your shirt just as easily and quickly as you can if the market tanks on your "buy and hold" portfolio).
Still, for readers who know nothing about technical analysis and market timing, this book can provide some real food for thought and a decent introduction to a different way about looking at your investments. It can be the first step toward learning about how to utilize these strategies.Read more ›
The book warms up slowly, because it spends most of its early time destroying other ideas, without introducing their main ideas. For example, it spends time destroying:
* Gains in the market come slowly and steadily. Correct, that's wrong. As my readers should know, market returns are lumpy. [Note to readers at Amazon, there are links at my blog that explain these concepts in greater detail.]
* Modern Portfolio Theory. Again, no argument here, it is not a good explanation as to how the market works.
* Volatility isn't risk; risk is the potential to lose. Again right.
* Diversification among risky assets does not provide much risk reduction. Again right.
* Most mutual funds miss out on the ability to limit risk, because they forbid market timing. Here I differ. Aside from funds that aim to time the markets, the asset allocation decision is not in the hands of the managers, but the shareholders, who must them selves decide how much stocks to hold.
This leads to their main hypothesis, that people have been duped into buy & hold investing, when they could make a lot more money if they only invested when conditions are favorable.
There are two problems with this: 1) how can you tell when times are favorable or not? I use the credit cycle, and estimates of what various asset classes are likely to return if they were private businesses, but not everyone can follow that. They give their simplified version, which is a moving average crossover method. Buy when stocks are above the moving average. Sell when they are below. Simple, huh?Read more ›
In a quick and entertaining read, the authors present a simple and reliable method to time the market by yourself or using their advisory service. The sales pitch is understandable and not over the top. I do it myself.
Personally, I have added this to my list of several market timing signals.
I am now a convert to the described highly liquid "long or not" tactical discipline of Win By Not Losing and have adopted the principles of this excellent book.
I now worry less about my investments but instead worry that too many will migrate to these tactics and dilute their effectiveness.
It really feels good to enjoy the bull ride and then be all cash as the market sinks.
Most Recent Customer Reviews
The important information in this book, i.e. when to buy and sell, is contained in a single page. I thought the rest of the book was just filler. Read morePublished 1 day ago by Elizabeth B.
Helpful for industry insiders and novice investors alike. The authors show how the industry has evolved, leading to current beliefs which are generally accepted, i.e. Read morePublished 11 months ago by Jordan
The actionable meat is chapter 17, start there first. His method may underperform in a bull market, but will save you at the start of a major downtown. Read morePublished 15 months ago by Rich
The authors are experienced, insightful and witty and the book is notable for its easy-to-read style of a sophisticated industry. Read morePublished 18 months ago by Taylor Fields
Straightforward method to tactically manage ones portfolio. Easy to implement. I can imagine using the books guidelines immediately to manage my IRAs.Published on April 18, 2014 by George Mirth
this is the best book on investing that I have ever read as it gives the reader a very clear signal to be in or out of the market.James McKenna New YorkPublished on January 23, 2014 by renee mckenna
Worth a careful read for beginner and a experienced traders and investors. Easy to read with a good balance of technical guidance.Published on January 20, 2014 by Jonathan Lackman