Enough about the oil problem. Here?s the solution. Over a few decades, starting now, a vibrant US economy (then others) can completely phase out oil. This will save a net $70 billion a year, revitalize key industries and rural America, create a million jobs, and enhance security. Here?s the roadmap ? independent, peer-reviewed, co-sponsored by the Pentagon ? for the transition beyond oil, led by business and profit.
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'Amory Lovins has some sharp ideas..., this sparky guru sketches out the mix of market-based policies that he thinks will lead to a good life after oil.' The Economist
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About the Author
Amory B. Lovins is cofounder and CEO of Rocky Mountain Institute. E. Kyle Datta is Managing Director of RMI's consulting practice and CEO of New Energy Partners, an energy consulting and renewable development firm in Hawai'i. Odd-Even Bustnes is a member of RMI's Energy / Resources and Commercial / Industry consulting practices. Jonathan G Koomey, Senior Fellow at RMI, is on annual leave of absence from Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory where as a Staff Scientist he led the End-Use Forecasting Group. Nathan J. Glasgow is a member of RMI Research & Consulting Practise and Special Aid to the CEO.
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111 of 115 people found the following review helpful
Format:Paperback
This study was co-funded by the Pentagon -- a plan for reducing U.S. oil use by 50% by 2025, and ending foreign oil dependency. Amory Lovins has been pursuing energy efficiency and renewable energy since the 1970s, when he wrote the influential SOFT ENERGY PATHS. That initiative was thrown off-track by the drop in oil prices in the 1980s. Now Lovins is back in demand in the post-9/11 world with the global Hubbert's Peak for oil upon us.
This is not a radical strategy. It is market-based, and is all based on existing technology. According to Lovins and his co-authors,
"...it will cost less to displace all of the oil that the United States now uses than it will cost to buy that oil. Oil's current market price leaves out its true costs to the economy, national security, and the environment. But even without including those now "externalized" costs, it would still be profitable to displace oil competely over the next few decades. In fact, by 2025, the annual economic benefit of that displacement would be $130 billion gross (or $70 billion net of the displacement's costs)."
WINNING THE OIL ENDGAME involves 4 shifts -- 1) doubling the efficiency of using oil, through measures such as ultralight vehicle design, 2) applying creative business models and public policies to speed the profitable adoption of superefficient light vehicles, heavy trucks and airplanes, 3) embarking on the crash development of biofuels, cellulosic ethanol in particular, and 4) applying efficiency measures to save 50% of the projected 2025 use of natural gas.
Lovins goes on to elaborate necessary policies, such as feebates as incentives for consumers, government acquisition plans, federal loan guarantees, and so forth. He notes that while eminently practical and market-based, the plan will not benefit all companies. He points to the examples of Shell and BP, oil companies that are in the process of tranforming themselves into energy companies, as models for success in this energy transition. (see www.oilendgame.com for more)
I admit that I am not by nature optimistic about the human condition, but Amory Lovins is, and he always makes me feel more confident about the future. Despair and fatalism produce nothing of value, so each and every one of us should join Amory Lovins and the Pentagon and fight for an end to foreign oil dependency, and fight for renewable energy! That will certainly mean fighting the Bush/Cheney Oil Administration -- let's roll!
This is not a radical strategy. It is market-based, and is all based on existing technology. According to Lovins and his co-authors,
"...it will cost less to displace all of the oil that the United States now uses than it will cost to buy that oil. Oil's current market price leaves out its true costs to the economy, national security, and the environment. But even without including those now "externalized" costs, it would still be profitable to displace oil competely over the next few decades. In fact, by 2025, the annual economic benefit of that displacement would be $130 billion gross (or $70 billion net of the displacement's costs)."
WINNING THE OIL ENDGAME involves 4 shifts -- 1) doubling the efficiency of using oil, through measures such as ultralight vehicle design, 2) applying creative business models and public policies to speed the profitable adoption of superefficient light vehicles, heavy trucks and airplanes, 3) embarking on the crash development of biofuels, cellulosic ethanol in particular, and 4) applying efficiency measures to save 50% of the projected 2025 use of natural gas.
Lovins goes on to elaborate necessary policies, such as feebates as incentives for consumers, government acquisition plans, federal loan guarantees, and so forth. He notes that while eminently practical and market-based, the plan will not benefit all companies. He points to the examples of Shell and BP, oil companies that are in the process of tranforming themselves into energy companies, as models for success in this energy transition. (see www.oilendgame.com for more)
I admit that I am not by nature optimistic about the human condition, but Amory Lovins is, and he always makes me feel more confident about the future. Despair and fatalism produce nothing of value, so each and every one of us should join Amory Lovins and the Pentagon and fight for an end to foreign oil dependency, and fight for renewable energy! That will certainly mean fighting the Bush/Cheney Oil Administration -- let's roll!
44 of 49 people found the following review helpful
Format:Paperback
This study was funded partially by the Pentagon and written by scientists from the Rocky Mountain Institute, led by Amory Lovins. According to them, the US could end the need to import oil by 2040, and not need oil at all by 2050. "Winning The Oil Endgame" talks a game of improved efficiency, making cars out of lightweight carbon instead of steel, powering them with hybrid engines, substituting with biofuels, and using saved natural gas until Hydrogen fuel technology takes over in 2050.
Unfortunately, some data indicates the oil will already be all gone by 2040.
Lovins's plan requires extensive subsidy input from lobby-infested Congress. At the same time (for those businesses that would profit), it's business oriented and would create business savings and profits.
BTW, before I forget to mention it: No wonder the Pentagon is concerned about oil usage: every tank that proceeds at 1/2 mpg is followed by two fuel trucks. Enemy artillary units have quickly learned to target those trucks first.
I don't share Lovins's optimism about voluntary Congressional, political, corporate, or personal compliance with this plan. I have noticed, however, that every time gas prices go up, fewer people buy SUV's and more hybrid vehicles are sold. I believe most of his technologies will occur as societies become convinced that we really are ruining the atmosphere - and especially when they find oil really is running out and is pricing itself out of reach. They will then be forced into making do with less oil - and eventually doing without it altogether. Meanwhile, PV solar panels are way too inefficient, I don't see wind power taking off, biofuels are inefficient to produce (and their production uses energy), and I wouldn't discount prematurely the need for many more nuclear plants.
Very much worth reading - you can read it on the internet as I did - downloaded from RMI homepage.
Unfortunately, some data indicates the oil will already be all gone by 2040.
Lovins's plan requires extensive subsidy input from lobby-infested Congress. At the same time (for those businesses that would profit), it's business oriented and would create business savings and profits.
BTW, before I forget to mention it: No wonder the Pentagon is concerned about oil usage: every tank that proceeds at 1/2 mpg is followed by two fuel trucks. Enemy artillary units have quickly learned to target those trucks first.
I don't share Lovins's optimism about voluntary Congressional, political, corporate, or personal compliance with this plan. I have noticed, however, that every time gas prices go up, fewer people buy SUV's and more hybrid vehicles are sold. I believe most of his technologies will occur as societies become convinced that we really are ruining the atmosphere - and especially when they find oil really is running out and is pricing itself out of reach. They will then be forced into making do with less oil - and eventually doing without it altogether. Meanwhile, PV solar panels are way too inefficient, I don't see wind power taking off, biofuels are inefficient to produce (and their production uses energy), and I wouldn't discount prematurely the need for many more nuclear plants.
Very much worth reading - you can read it on the internet as I did - downloaded from RMI homepage.
19 of 19 people found the following review helpful
By John R. Amon
Format:Paperback
The book is available for download in pdf from the author's site without charge.
Most Recent Customer Reviews
5.0 out of 5 stars
Winning Oil Game
Great book, very thought provoking. Controversial subject that is important to all mankind.
Recommend that everyone read it.
Good service.
Recommend that everyone read it.
Good service.
Published 3 months ago by donpad
4.0 out of 5 stars
We need to solve it
This book "gets it". There is a crisis. We need to end our dependency on oil.
The book also undestands that this will best be solved by economics. Read more
The book also undestands that this will best be solved by economics. Read more
Published on August 29, 2009 by Jim Estill
5.0 out of 5 stars
We can beat Peak Oil! (review by Author of When Technology Fails)
Amory Lovins, physicist, ecologist, technical innovator and founder of the Rocky Mountain Institute, has coauthored a clear practical blueprint for weaning America from our oil... Read more
Published on January 19, 2008 by Matthew I. Stein
5.0 out of 5 stars
We can beat Peak Oil! (review by Author of When Technology Fails)
Amory Lovins, physicist, ecologist, technical innovator and founder of the Rocky Mountain Institute, has coauthored a clear practical blueprint for weaning America from our oil... Read more
Published on November 17, 2007 by Matthew I. Stein
5.0 out of 5 stars
Great as Far as it Goes
This is one of the few books around on actually trying to solve the energy problems, and he puts up enough thinking and new concepts that the book is definitely worth reading. Read more
Published on December 4, 2006 by John Matlock
5.0 out of 5 stars
Best book I have read on the topic!!
OK, I've never written a review - but I feel really passionate about this book. My jaw dropped when I saw the price just now (a friend let me borrow his copy). Read more
Published on May 15, 2006 by Invisible Gold
3.0 out of 5 stars
A highly over-rated "book", with dubious assumptions....
I have always admired Amory Lovins and his Rocky Mountain Institute, but this book does not impress me at all. Read more
Published on December 23, 2005 by David A. Marks
3.0 out of 5 stars
Winning the Oil Endgame
A rather technical report consisting of suggestions for government agencies to enact to aid in the transistion from oil to alternative energy sources. Read more
Published on October 26, 2005 by Jo Sonerholm
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