5 of 5 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
predicting wireless technology, March 13, 2007
This review is from: Wireless Communications: The Future (Hardcover)
This book is about the future of wireless technology, a subject that often tempts authors to let their imaginations run away with them; yet this book is notable for its sober and measured judgments. Indeed, compared to some who predict the future, this book is on the conservative side.
Over the next twenty years, the mobile handset will become a massively powerful `remote control on life' connecting the user to one large communications network, Webb believes; yet "achieving all of this will require little in the way of change for wireless technology, which is already capable of delivering more than adequate data rates and services if deployed with sufficient density". The book is supportive of 3G, and is cautious about the speed of development of WiMax, DVB-H for mobile TV, and 4G. It foresees considerable excitement in new services, but these will be provided on top of an underlying wireless communications infrastructure that becomes a slow-changing utility.
A very valuable feature of the book is that it conveys a realistic sense of the pace of technological change in the wireless sector. Major changes in standards, such as from 3G to 4G, or Bluetooth to UWB, or analogue to digital TV, are slow. There is a long handover period, which can last about a decade, during which both the new and the old standard are used. The break acting to slow technological change is not science, but economics. Scientists invent new technologies, but if an old technology is working fairly well and making profits, and consumers are happy with it, then there is a disincentive for companies to spend large amounts of money to deploy the new. Realism about this interplay between research and economics is a hallmark of this book. Indeed, the book itself perhaps expresses the realism and caution that is a hallmark of our times.
Of the book's fifteen chapters, nine (127 pages) are written by Webb himself; the other six (121 pages) are written by contributors, all leading experts. Peter Cochrane, in a chapter I wished was longer, foresees 1Gbit/s data rates at distances less than 30 metres. Simon Saunders believes that citywide WiFi networks will not be successful by 2011, though other contributors disagree. Saunders also believes data volumes for machine-to-machine communications will exceed those between people in 2015. Stephen Temple has a good sense for the unexpected: "our cellular radio world has become 40% `game theory' and 60% `chaos theory'," he says. There are also interesting contributions on military wireless, ad-hoc networks, and spectrum policy.
Webb summarises the contributions, evaluates areas of disagreement, and draws their conclusions together, before making his overall predictions for 2011, for 2016, and for 2026. Webb uses the term "we" in making his overall predictions because he is including the ideas of his contributors, but Webb's predictions have not been jointly agreed. Perhaps it would have been better (though time-consuming) for the contributors to have thrashed out jointly agreed predictions.
The value of this book does not stand or fall by the accuracy of its predictions. As well as peering into the future, the authors carefully explain the current situation and describe the new technologies that are arriving and on the horizon. This is something that Webb is especially good at, as he has the gift of writing extremely clearly (his earlier book "Understanding Cellular Radio" 1998 is the clearest explanation of GSM for the non specialist I have come across). Whether its predictions prove right or wrong, "Wireless Communications: The Future" sets them out calmly and logically: it thus provides a first-rate roadmap for finding your way around the communications world. The book is written in non-technical language and can be easily understood by the non-specialist. In general, the book's predictions are not quantitative. It predicts which technologies will be more successful, but does not attempt to specify market shares in terms of percentages or dollar revenues: there are few pie charts or graphs.
This book is essential reading for anyone who is serious about understanding the modern wireless communications sector and how it is developing. It should also serve as a model for other books addressing the futures of other technological sectors: publishers take note! Its rational spirit may also inspire those who read it with a renewed enthusiasm for the possible.
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3 of 4 people found the following review helpful:
3.0 out of 5 stars
Flawed Assumption, March 30, 2007
This review is from: Wireless Communications: The Future (Hardcover)
Webb's fundamental assumption that there are no revolutions in wireless technology on the 20 year horizon is, in my opinion, fundamentally wrong. I have worked in the wireless innovation industry for the last 5 years and am positive of at lease one revolution in wireless technology on the 5 year horizon.
I make this point because Webb's somber and conservative projections are all based on his fundamental assumption that the future of wireless is the density of coverage, not a revolution in performance, quality of services, and reliability.
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